A few points from Willies note;
1) am I reading the above correctly in that if you run in a ‘beginners chase’ then whether you win or not, you automatically lose your novice status for the following year ? - that appears to be the implication.
2) so we now know what Willie thinks ‘very competitive’ means…..it’s where you have around a 20lb rating advantage to the rest of the field!
(based upon Sundays race in which she is 1/5 to win)
3) why would Willie mention ‘reverting to hurdles’ or even contemplate it, when JDG appears to have jumped well on her two novice chases this season, the last when just being beaten by a horse highly thought of and who is third fav for this seasons BANC?….also when she is a 1/5 shot to win her first chase of the season on Sunday?
Something just seems ‘afoot’ here as JDG shouldn’t be 25/1 for the Mares Chase IMO unless you have a very strong view (or intel) that says that she is very unlikely to run in the Mares Chase at this years festival……why…..well she was due to go chasing last season (9/1 AP to win the Mares Chase early doors) before a small injury that meant she had an interrupted season which resulted in the decision to stay hurdling……she beat all bar Lossiemouth in last years Mares Hurdle at the festival and was third to Golden Ace and BDA in the previous years Mares novice hurdle at the festival……she also trounced Spindleberry over hurdles beforehand……an impressive CV from a graded Mare starting a novice chase campaign. If converting her hurdle rating to fences then she has nothing to fear from most in the Mares Chase betting and if showing a few pounds improvement then none bar maybe, Dinoblue
If you say her first run this year was poor, given how far she was beaten by Kala Conti, who she should have beaten easily based upon hurdles form for both, then wasn’t it at a time where we were saying that Willies looked to be needing their first runs ? Also the same Kala Conti who went on to beat Kargese and is now being talked about as a live contender for a few different chases at the festival this season.
Her second run appeared much better and she looked the winner before the last, maybe just being outstayed by the TBW?…..TBW whose form ties in with JDS, which before his last run in heavy ground, looked the best staying novice chase form at the time bar Final Demand?
Do the layers think her race at the festival could be dependent upon whether Lossiemouth runs in the CH…..is that what a part of the 25/1 price to win the Mares Chase is, rather than form?
Unless she going to be one horse that doesn’t at least match their hurdle rating over fences, or we are being ‘put away’, then she should be half the price she is in the Mares Chase and most certainly not 5/1 to finish second or third, which she effectively is at 25/1.
However I am reluctant to go in again as I have in the back of my mind that ‘reverting’ could still be the number one option for Willie and in turn her festival target, irrespective of Sundays win, as he did initially say at the end of last season that he might keep her hurdling this year and there was the ‘one of either JDG and Kargese would stay hurdling’ in this years stable tours info…..yet that was cobblers as both have run in two novice chases so far this season!
…..so maybe ‘reverting’ could also be cobblers !
This Cheltenham AP game is hard enough without the contradicting trainer info we get from a few trainers, so maybe it’s the opposite viewpoint to the trainer that sometimes offers the value, although with it additional risk
Most places have him at evens so has been a little drift as he was generally 4/5 or 10/11.
