Just trying to think about Savills outcomes and what, if any, horses at the top of the market need to be backed now, because prices may contract
Inothewayyourthinkin wins - and shortens to 2/1- 9/4
Inothewayyourthinkin loses - and doesn’t drift much as he was beat 15l last year in the Savills after a previous run to start his season. Needed a fair few races to get fit last year before the GC and showing his 16lb improvement. Also Cromwells stable not firing at the moment.
Gallopin Des Champs wins - and shortens to 3/1 -7/2 with the view that one less run this year v’s last year prior to the festival may well mean an improved performance in the GC against Inothewayyourthinkin…….also winning first time up for Willie may be marked up with some of his stable needing the run?
Gallopin Des Champs loses - but and drifts to 7/1 - 8/1…may not be seen as a busted flush due to Willies horses needing their first run?
Both Inothewayurthikin and Gallopin Des Champs lose - Inothewayyourthinkin drifts not much to maybe 4/1 (won’t go much bigger due to last years campaign and Cromwells current strike rate)……Gallopin Des Champs drifts to 8/1- 9/1 and Gaelic Warrior shortens to 7/1 - 8/1 as a result
For me the biggest move could be if Inothewayyourthinkin wins the Savills and beats GDC, as it would confirm his superiority against GDC at a track apart from Cheltenham and that his 16lb improvement from his previous races last year to the GC was not a fluke. If he doesn’t win then he should still have the same chance to win the GC as before the Savills, based upon last years campaign and he therefore has to be the bet at the moment @ 7/2…..with maybe a saver on Gaelic at 10/1 as he will probably shorten if GDC gets beat as his chance of winning the GC will increase as well as the likelihood of him running in the race
Simples…