With the interesting debate on the Ryanair thread about the King George runners and their respective chances for the GC, then I thought I would have a look at the sectional times for the KG and see why so many people think that the form is suspect due to nature of the way the race was run and try to understand why so many opinions are against the TJM and particularly the GC trip.
I decided to do this as I am on TJM @ 40/1 at the start of the season, thinking he was potentially the best British second season chaser for the GC, but with so much opinion against him staying the GC trip I have been ‘‘umming and arhhing” about whether to cash out or let it ride.
I also dont understand how some horses from this years KG close finish are considered to have a better chance of seeing the GC trip out than TJM, especially when their respective careers to date have maybe suggested otherwise! Ie Both Jango and Gaelic (up until last years Mildmay) we’re speed horses (both winning the Arkle) and could maybe “stretch out further” in distance, whereas the TJM has always been seen as a stayer surely, why else would he run in the Albert Bartlett as a novice hurdler? The argument that the race favoured speed horses as the race developed into a sprint, surely then favours Gaelic, Jango, where it’s against TJM?……TJM matched them stride for stride and when Gaelic and Banbridge came past after the last, fought back to get up……doesn’t that indicate an ability to stay the 3m trip well and in a track record time?……even if the GC race maybe run differently. Why does that indicate that Gaelic and Jango may stay the GC trip better than TJM?
I have watched the race a few times since and have taken sectional times from the ITV’s furlong by furlong info (not sure as to the provenance of this data but I am a skinflint and not prepared to pay/subscribe for sectional data!)
From watching the race and particularly from the home bend then I just don’t understand how people can think that Jango Baie is the one to take from the race? Didnt jump great and had every chance with the race run for a speed 2 1/2 mile horse….i don’t see him ever beating either Gaelic or TJM over 3m or more…..the only caveat being he is a year younger and may have a bit more improvement.
Furlong by furlong;
1f - 17.28s
2f - 15.01
3f - 14.64
4f - 14.75
5f - 15.05
6f - 15.11
7f - 15.08
8f - 14.08
9f - 14.22
10f - 14.84
11f - 15.22 - heading for final circuit
12f - 14.98
13f - 14.37
14f - 15.11
15f - 15.02 - Ruby comment “pace does look steady”
16f - 14.26
17f - 14.63
18f - 14.50
19f - 14.51
20f - 13.60 - kick off the home turn, five lengths covering the field
21f - 12.60
22f - 12.98
23f - 13.09
24f - 13.32
Looks like the injection of pace off the home turn decided the race, so how good is it that the TJM managed to hang onto the ‘speed horses’ Gaelic, Jango and Banbridge?……and to sustain his effort all the way to the line, matching them……particularly as he has always run over a trip and never been seen as a ‘speed horse’?
Whilst I accept that I have a vested interest in the TJM and maybe a tad biased
then I still am of the contrarian view that the TJM is the ‘one to take’ from the KG and maybe the best of the bunch to take up the gauntlet against last years first and second in the GC.
I am minded to, as Maximus would say ‘ hold the line’ with those AP slips on TJM !
