2026 Champion Chase

[ComplyOrDie]

A very baffling race right now.

Jonbon - past his prime and probably going up in trip.
Majborough - jumping a bit sketchy but has a good engine.
IET - Poor Cheltenham form but is he an improved horse?
Marine Nationale - Not much to dislike but short in the betting and not seen yet and quite ground dependent.
Sir Gino - May not come here, if reverting to hurdles
LDS - Is he really a grade 1 horse?

As it stands, assuming Sir Gino goes hurdling, then I cannot see past one of Majborough or Marine Nationale. Personally, I would rather bet on a horse with Cheltenham course form and ideally, festival form. I have placed a small bet on Majborough at 8-1 but nothing to get too excited about,

Quilixios maybe the bet at the prices?

No way to say how it would have finished against Marine Nationale but he was thereabouts when coming down last season. Personally I think Marine Nationale probably still wins, but I do think Quilixios is an easy 2nd.

He obviously likes Cheltenham too, having won the Triumph and last seasons encouraging run prior to the fall. Can dismiss the Arkle as he lost the race at the start that day.

He's 33/1 when Marine is 4/1 best price.

 

[Benjy23]

Quilixios maybe the bet at the prices?

No way to say how it would have finished against Marine Nationale but he was thereabouts when coming down last season. Personally I think Marine Nationale probably still wins, but I do think Quilixios is an easy 2nd.

He obviously likes Cheltenham too, having won the Triumph and last seasons encouraging run prior to the fall. Can dismiss the Arkle as he lost the race at the start that day.

He's 33/1 when Marine is 4/1 best price.

I almost replied with the same thing, and they're the only two (Marine and Quilixios) I've backed but it does look a reasonably competitive race at the top end so I'm not as convinced on the Quilixios each way angle as I was when I placed the bet.

 

[Runragged]

This is a betting forum where we generally discuss what is value and we have a prime case here in Majborough. He is prone to blundering through a fence and at Cheltenham they can be pretty unforgiving. But, we are not talking about betting him at his previous price of 3/1, but now 6/1. If he was too short at 3/1, is he now too big at 6/1? I think he is if I was confident he was going to stay at 2m. The Willie Mullins comments about his jumping and keeping him at 2m "for now" factors in another concern, the potential for stepping him up in trip. I also wonder whether he regrets pushing El Fabiolo at 2m despite having shown plenty of concerns around his jumping and wishing he had sent him over further sooner, now to the point he has lost all confidence in his jumping?

The bet I guess would be to back Majborough to win at Xmas and to win the CC. If he suffers defeat again with jumping mistakes then there is that possibility he steps up in trip. He wins and it will be safe to say he is CC bound.

 

[Benjy23]

This is a betting forum where we generally discuss what is value and we have a prime case here in Majborough. He is prone to blundering through a fence and at Cheltenham they can be pretty unforgiving. But, we are not talking about betting him at his previous price of 3/1, but now 6/1. If he was too short at 3/1, is he now too big at 6/1? I think he is if I was confident he was going to stay at 2m. The Willie Mullins comments about his jumping and keeping him at 2m "for now" factors in another concern, the potential for stepping him up in trip. I also wonder whether he regrets pushing El Fabiolo at 2m despite having shown plenty of concerns around his jumping and wishing he had sent him over further sooner, now to the point he has lost all confidence in his jumping?

The bet I guess would be to back Majborough to win at Xmas and to win the CC. If he suffers defeat again with jumping mistakes then there is that possibility he steps up in trip. He wins and it will be safe to say he is CC bound.

Aye, the 3/1 at Christmas single was the bet to be honest. As even if he wins there I could see Marine reversing the form at Cheltenham. Been cut to 2/1 now which isn't so tempting.

 

[Runragged]

Aye, the 3/1 at Christmas single was the bet to be honest. As even if he wins there I could see Marine reversing the form at Cheltenham. Been cut to 2/1 now which isn't so tempting.

Hopeful of a 10/1 WTAF. Depends how long both prices hold for now...

 

[archie]

El Fabiolo had a huge engine and, as a novice, was able to get to the other side of fences without loss of momentum but his jumping got worse not better as he got older. Like Constitution Hill, possibly a confidence issue the longer it went on.

Majborough's mistakes are costing him 3 to 5 lengths each time and if he didn't have enough in hand to beat Found A Fifty then he sure won't have enough in hand to beat Marine Nationale. That one is now 7/2 in most places but will probably be longer after his prep race(s). I don't see him losing if he gets there in one piece.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

El Fabiolo had a huge engine and, as a novice, was able to get to the other side of fences without loss of momentum but his jumping got worse not better as he got older. Like Constitution Hill, possibly a confidence issue the longer it went on.

Majborough's mistakes are costing him 3 to 5 lengths each time and if he didn't have enough in hand to beat Found A Fifty then he sure won't have enough in hand to beat Marine Nationale. That one is now 7/2 in most places but will probably be longer after his prep race(s). I don't see him losing if he gets there in one piece.

Ruby made a point that he doesn't think it's a confidence issue with Constitution Hill as he's not backing off his hurdles, which is the sign of a horse not confident or wanting to jump. Constitution Hill is quite the opposite, he chucks himself at them, maybe he's just not that intelligent!

I don't remember El Fabiolo's falls that well, but from what I do remember I don't recall him backing off the fences that caused him to fall?

Majborough looks clumsy to me. Doesn't seem to get up enough, would rather plough through one or two.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Kalif Du Berlais jumps like a buck, Majborough would have a bigger engine, but how many lengths will he lose Vs how many does KDB gain at each fence, makes me wonder if the 50/1 is worth another look as again, we have an open looking Grade 1, when these races lack a dominant horse many connections will consider it worth gambling on an entry.

 

[Runragged]

Majborough's mistakes are costing him 3 to 5 lengths each time and if he didn't have enough in hand to beat Found A Fifty then he sure won't have enough in hand to beat Marine Nationale. That one is now 7/2 in most places but will probably be longer after his prep race(s). I don't see him losing if he gets there in one piece.

I'm sorry, but this is the exact thing Kevin Blake is getting at. At which fence does he lose more than a length to FAF let alone "3 to 5 each time"? He is clumsy and he still looked a bit novicey, running around approaching the fences, but the point is he isn't losing any ground! The Racedata IQ tells you that. Even going back to that big blunder in the Arkle at the 2nd last, he is about 1/2 length up jumping, slips on landing, recovers and is approximately 2 lengths down a few strides later. Even at the last where he drags his hind legs through, he doesn't look to lose more than 1/2 length at most on L'EDS and OBN. Where else has he made a significant error in comparison to what he did in the Arkle?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm sorry, but this is the exact thing Kevin Blake is getting at. At which fence does he lose more than a length to FAF let alone "3 to 5 each time"? He is clumsy and he still looked a bit novicey, running around approaching the fences, but the point is he isn't losing any ground! The Racedata IQ tells you that. Even going back to that big blunder in the Arkle at the 2nd last, he is about 1/2 length up jumping, slips on landing, recovers and is approximately 2 lengths down a few strides later. Even at the last where he drags his hind legs through, he doesn't look to lose more than 1/2 length at most on L'EDS and OBN. Where else has he made a significant error in comparison to what he did in the Arkle?

If what you say if true (not doubting it, just haven't seen any of it myself) and you believe in the RaceiQ date, then are you saying his 'engine' isn't as big as people believe?

All I ever see, whether on here or Twitter is the 'engine' that Majborough has. If he's not slowing down or losing ground at the fences then he must just not be as good as people think. The 'engine' would get him home, surely?

 

[Runragged]

If what you say if true (not doubting it, just haven't seen any of it myself) and you believe in the RaceiQ date, then are you saying his 'engine' isn't as big as people believe?

All I ever see, whether on here or Twitter is the 'engine' that Majborough has. If he's not slowing down or losing ground at the fences then he must just not be as good as people think. The 'engine' would get him home, surely?

The question is whether blundering through fences is taking anything out of the horse? He might not be losing ground but it could end up costing him at the end of the race if it is wearing on his stamina. A bit like a boxer taking body shots. Might not effect him in the opening rounds but by the end of the fight it would tell! The obvious thing with Majborough was is he wasn't taking the 'body shots' then would he have more left at the end of the race, ie his engine.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The question is whether blundering through fences is taking anything out of the horse? He might not be losing ground but it could end up costing him at the end of the race if it is wearing on his stamina. A bit like a boxer taking body shots. Might not effect him in the opening rounds but by the end of the fight it would tell! The obvious thing with Majborough was is he wasn't taking the 'body shots' then would he have more left at the end of the race, ie his engine.

Horses make mistakes all the time, so he won't be the only one doing so, but if they are good enough, IMO, they still manage to win.

Kopek Des Bordes over hurdles on debut and even at Cheltenham is a more recent example of this.

Personally, I just don't think Majborough is a 2 miler and it's costing him, or he's just not as good as everyone wants to believe.

Strangely, despite the above, I do think his target will be the 2m race at Christmas, over anything else this eason.

He'll have a fitness advantage over Marine Nationale & Quilixios if they even turn up, Il Etait Temps doesn't like Leopardstown and probably won't even turn up to the race, Found A Fifty won't have the fitness edge over Majborough this time around, El Fabiolo can't stay upright, and Dinoblue may turn up but jumped even worse than Majborough last time out. It's like the perfect storm for Majborough, IMO.

FWIW as well, Found A Fifty is still a 25/1 shot for the Champion Chase despite winning both his races this season, so should represent some value IF you are fancying Majborough. He also finished ahead of Il Etait Temps in the Arkle, when both were behind Gaelic Warrior.

Apologies, I went on a bit of a diversion there

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Horses make mistakes all the time, so he won't be the only one doing so, but if they are good enough, IMO, they still manage to win.

Kopek Des Bordes over hurdles on debut and even at Cheltenham is a more recent example of this.

Personally, I just don't think Majborough is a 2 miler and it's costing him, or he's just not as good as everyone wants to believe.

Strangely, despite the above, I do think his target will be the 2m race at Christmas, over anything else this eason.

He'll have a fitness advantage over Marine Nationale & Quilixios if they even turn up, Il Etait Temps doesn't like Leopardstown and probably won't even turn up to the race, Found A Fifty won't have the fitness edge over Majborough this time around, El Fabiolo can't stay upright, and Dinoblue may turn up but jumped even worse than Majborough last time out. It's like the perfect storm for Majborough, IMO.

FWIW as well, Found A Fifty is still a 25/1 shot for the Champion Chase despite winning both his races this season, so should represent some value IF you are fancying Majborough. He also finished ahead of Il Etait Temps in the Arkle, when both were behind Gaelic Warrior.

Apologies, I went on a bit of a diversion there

Don't worry CoD, it didn't cost you any time going round the houses...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Something else that is often mistaken, horses not meeting an obstacle on a stride is not a mistake, for me that’s on the pilot who should be able to judge whether the stride needs to lengthen/shorten 5 or 6 strides out, how horses adjust in getting over them when they get in close is a skill and the sign of an intelligent horse…

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Don't worry CoD, it didn't cost you any time going round the houses...

I just found myself typing and couldn't stop, ironically, a bit like how Majborough doesn't decide to jump and carries on running

 

[Runragged]

Horses make mistakes all the time, so he won't be the only one doing so, but if they are good enough, IMO, they still manage to win.

Kopek Des Bordes over hurdles on debut and even at Cheltenham is a more recent example of this.

Personally, I just don't think Majborough is a 2 miler and it's costing him, or he's just not as good as everyone wants to believe.

Strangely, despite the above, I do think his target will be the 2m race at Christmas, over anything else this eason.

He'll have a fitness advantage over Marine Nationale & Quilixios if they even turn up, Il Etait Temps doesn't like Leopardstown and probably won't even turn up to the race, Found A Fifty won't have the fitness edge over Majborough this time around, El Fabiolo can't stay upright, and Dinoblue may turn up but jumped even worse than Majborough last time out. It's like the perfect storm for Majborough, IMO.

FWIW as well, Found A Fifty is still a 25/1 shot for the Champion Chase despite winning both his races this season, so should represent some value IF you are fancying Majborough. He also finished ahead of Il Etait Temps in the Arkle, when both were behind Gaelic Warrior.

Apologies, I went on a bit of a diversion there

Ha, I do it all the time as you can easily tell!

I agree on the perfect storm for Majborough at Leopardstown. I have mentioned before that I thought Only By Night would be a cracking e/w bet in the race at the 16/1. However, upon final research the initial suggestion after her last win was that she would go to the Chich Fowler on NYD (Won by Allegorie De Vassy last year over 2 1/2m) before heading to the Mares Chase. Therefore I am holding off the bet unless I see something more definitive for it (Hopefully soon).

Majborough is a strange one. I've just rewatched all his chase starts and he is exactly the same so don't know if it's him still being novicey or that is just how he is. He lugs to the left, looks around, ungainly at the fences yet he has a way of getting from a to b that has been pretty successful. The thing is, it is easy to get away with it in novice company or grade 2's (yet didn't in the Arkle or Hilly Way) so would he be caught out at the highest level? There is a much finer margin of error in top class grade 1's when everyone has their horses peaking. I do wonder if he would be found out. However, he also has the most potential if he can iron out these quirks at all.

As for Found A Fifty, I did back him at the weekend e/w as that was his conditions. Right handed, soft ground, grade 2 race and was getting weight plus a fitness advantage over Majborough. I have a bet with a friend that he will never win a grade 1 chase going left handed in open company. I wish connections would realise horses often have preferences for which way they jump. FAF will probably be aimed at these big grade 1's going left handed at Leopardstown and Cheltenham when they should be avoiding them and picking up good races going right handed. The same is going to happen to Il Etait Temps if following what Patrick Mullins has said!

 

[archie]

Ruby made a point that he doesn't think it's a confidence issue with Constitution Hill as he's not backing off his hurdles, which is the sign of a horse not confident or wanting to jump. Constitution Hill is quite the opposite, he chucks himself at them, maybe he's just not that intelligent!

I don't remember El Fabiolo's falls that well, but from what I do remember I don't recall him backing off the fences that caused him to fall?

Majborough looks clumsy to me. Doesn't seem to get up enough, would rather plough through one or two.

I'd say that it was the confidence between horse and rider that's the issue as well as with CH, possibly, an eyesight issue.

 

[Prestbury]

If what you say if true (not doubting it, just haven't seen any of it myself) and you believe in the RaceiQ date, then are you saying his 'engine' isn't as big as people believe?

All I ever see, whether on here or Twitter is the 'engine' that Majborough has. If he's not slowing down or losing ground at the fences then he must just not be as good as people think. The 'engine' would get him home, surely?

The other imponderable to consider is how much, if any, Majborough will come on for the run. If you look at RPRs (and I appreciate the accuracy or otherwise these may or may not imply) then the following are the improvement in RPRs shown in all Willie's horses that placed top 3 in one of the big chases at the Festival in the last 6 years:

Galopin Des Champs (GC 24/25) +12lb
Fact To File (Ry 24/25) +8lb
GDC (GC 23/24) +22lb
Gentlemen Du Mee (CC 23/24) +9lb
GDC (GC 22/23) +9lb
Energumene (CC 22/23) +4lb
Allaho (Ry 21/22) +11lb
Energumene (CC 21/22) +6lb
Al Boum Photo (GC 20/21) 0lb
Allaho (Ry 20/21) +49lb
Chacun Pour Soi (CC 20/21) -4lb
Al Boum Photo (GC 19/20) -2lb
Min (Ry 19/20) +10lb

Most of Willie's top level open chasers show improved form from their first start and those that didn't are within a few lbs - this is probably what most would expect given Willie being increasingly slower to start each season. Given that Majborough was given a rating of 169 for his seasonal debut then any improvement on this is going to make him a tough nut to crack (assuming he gets round!). Last year Marine Nationale was given a an RPR of 173, prior to this Captain Guinness 167, Energumene 179 and 177, Put The Kettle On 160 (+7), Politologue 173).

I think its a valid enough assumption that there are at least a few lbs of improvement in Majborough given Willie's recent history so his "engine" may well be sufficient when tuned for the big day.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The other imponderable to consider is how much, if any, Majborough will come on for the run. If you look at RPRs (and I appreciate the accuracy or otherwise these may or may not imply) then the following are the improvement in RPRs shown in all Willie's horses that placed top 3 in one of the big chases at the Festival in the last 6 years:

Galopin Des Champs (GC 24/25) +12lb
Fact To File (Ry 24/25) +8lb
GDC (GC 23/24) +22lb
Gentlemen Du Mee (CC 23/24) +9lb
GDC (GC 22/23) +9lb
Energumene (CC 22/23) +4lb
Allaho (Ry 21/22) +11lb
Energumene (CC 21/22) +6lb
Al Boum Photo (GC 20/21) 0lb
Allaho (Ry 20/21) +49lb
Chacun Pour Soi (CC 20/21) -4lb
Al Boum Photo (GC 19/20) -2lb
Min (Ry 19/20) +10lb

Most of Willie's top level open chasers show improved form from their first start and those that didn't are within a few lbs - this is probably what most would expect given Willie being increasingly slower to start each season. Given that Majborough was given a rating of 169 for his seasonal debut then any improvement on this is going to make him a tough nut to crack (assuming he gets round!). Last year Marine Nationale was given a an RPR of 173, prior to this Captain Guinness 167, Energumene 179 and 177, Put The Kettle On 160 (+7), Politologue 173).

I think its a valid enough assumption that there are at least a few lbs of improvement in Majborough given Willie's recent history so his "engine" may well be sufficient when tuned for the big day.

When you put this post up I was surprised he got an RPR of 169, but one thing I completely forgot was that he had to give FAF weight, I know it was only 4lbs, but like you say, seasonal debut, with improvement to come, it may be enough that he puts in a serious performance at Leopardstown. I don't think he'll need to be at his best there, but if he is I can see an overreaction should he win well, he'll be a machine again, to some!

FWIW, I want him to turn up to Cheltenham with a live chance, I've got him covered, just right now I couldn't trust him to put it all together.

 

[archie]

For those who don't see a Majborough jumping issue.

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