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2026 Champion Chase

Anyone else think that marine nationale now looks a good thing for this ? Iet record at Cheltenham is bad and maj can't jump
 
BigL said:
Anyone else think that marine nationale now looks a good thing for this ? Iet record at Cheltenham is bad and maj can't jump
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Wait till Majborough wallops him at Xmas.
 
BigL said:
Anyone else think that marine nationale now looks a good thing for this ? Iet record at Cheltenham is bad and maj can't jump
Click to expand...
Would you not be worried he needs better ground, yes he previously won on heavy over hurdles but has avoided bad ground since his defeat last season.
 
….Kevin Blake’s take on Maj;

We see the power of suggestion in action all the time in horse racing. If an influential voice makes a comment or offers a theory on a race or horse, it is remarkable how quickly it can become accepted as the definitive interpretation, even if it doesn’t stand up to closer scrutiny.

I believe we saw a prime example of this in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork on Sunday.

The Willie Mullins-trained Majborough was sent off at 4/6 to make a winning start to his campaign and consolidate his position as the ante-post favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. However, he was beaten by 1½ lengths by Found A Fifty, with a great amount of negative scrutiny being aimed at his jumping. Such was the negative reaction to his performance that he doubled in price for the Queen Mother Champion Chase from 3/1 to 6/1.

The thing is, I really can’t see what the fuss is about, and actually thought he ran a career-best race in defeat.

First of all, let’s deal with what has been the main focus of his performance - his jumping. Just to make sure that my view wasn’t being unduly influenced by pre-conceived views, I re-watched all of his starts over fences back-to-back from his chasing debut onwards.

Throughout his time over fences, Majborough has been consistent in his jumping tendencies. He is generally a low, attacking jumper of a fence. He habitually adjusts to his left, which has been magnified by the fact that three of his five starts over fences have come around right-handed tracks. Most significantly, he isn’t very good at shortening up into his fences when required. He is naturally aggressive, and when he is on a wrong stride he has more often than not just launched himself at the fence. Though, with one exception where he bulldozed through the second-last fence in the Arkle and lost his hind legs on landing, these occasional clumsy leaps haven’t tended to cost him much ground or momentum.

So, in the context of what we already knew about Majborough’s tendencies, I really didn’t see anything surprising or concerning in his jumping performance last Sunday.

Yes, he adjusted to his left quite a bit, which was costly around this right-handed track. Nothing new there. He was a shade clumsy at a couple when needing to shorten, but again there was nothing new in that and he didn’t lose any ground of note in doing so. The most significant mistake he made came at the second-last fence, when he got in close and looked to bulldoze his way through it. But, while it looked dramatic, he didn’t appear to lose much more than half a length as a consequence.

Going back to the power of suggestion, I believe commentators can have an impact on the perception of the viewer. Given that Majborough already had negative focus on his jumping after his memorable error in the Arkle, perhaps the fact that the brilliant Jerry Hannon made a negative comment on five of Majborough’s last seven jumps on Sunday played a role in shaping the flavour of response to the performance. Mullins amplified the negativity by declaring his disappointment with his round of jumping immediately after the race too. Before long, all that could be seen on social media were multitudes of adjectives declaring how abysmally Majborough had jumped.

Doctors differ and all that, but I just can’t agree with such assessments. Of course, viewed in isolation, it wasn’t the round of jumping one would ideally want to see from a potential Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, but that is Majborough’s way and that way hasn’t stopped him quickly rising to the top end of the table in the two-mile chase division.

When one has dealt with Majborough’s jumping, I felt his overall performance on the day was also far better than it was given credit for. Found A Fifty has had a few blips in his career, but he is a serious horse that is worth every bit of his official rating of 164 on his day. He came into the Hilly Way hard-fit, having already had two runs this season, and with conditions to suit. Majborough faced a far tougher task in giving away 4lb to him around a right-handed track than the market suggested, and there was absolutely no shame in being beaten by him on the day. While he was beaten, he actually comes out of the race as the best horse at the weights, and to me that represents a career-best effort from him.

As should be obvious at this stage, I think the market has completely overreacted in pushing Majborough out to 6/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. He will presumably return to his preferred left-handed track at Leopardstown next time, and with the benefit of this run under his belt even better can be expected there.

Given all that has been said above about his jumping tendencies, in a perfect world I would love to see him ridden with an aggression that matches his own characteristics. He clearly doesn’t excel when asked to shorten at a fence and can get himself in bother, so I’d love to see him ridden forwardly and attacking his fences. That isn’t natural style of his regular rider Mark Walsh, but such a style of ride is what appeals as being likely to make the best of Majborough.

Wherever he goes and whatever way he is ridden, Majborough promises to be seriously exciting viewing. I am certainly keeping the faith in him as a future Queen Mother Champion Chase winner anyway.
 
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….P Mullins re IET;

I'd imagine he'll follow all those top-class, two-mile chasers from now. Whether he goes back (to Leopardstown) at Christmas, we'll see how he comes out of the race but I'd imagine Leopardstown at Christmas, the DRF and onto Cheltenham. He's won at Aintree and Punchestown."

A Cheltenham win is conspicuous by its absence from Il Etait Temps' CV to date, and Mullins admits he must now go and prove himself on the Prestbury Park stage.

He said: "I suppose that's a question mark. He got beaten in the Triumph, I think it was only his second run over hurdles and it was a very good run.

"He was probably a little bit disappointing in the Supreme, but I think he got shuffled back at the hurdle before they turn down the hill. It might not have been his true running.

"And then, for whatever reason, in the Arkle he made two very bad mistakes at both ditches.

"Now whether that was just a fluke on the day (I don't know). When you look at him jump at Sandown, the scope he showed at the final two jumps was extraordinary.

"So it is a question mark, but I don't see any particular reason why he wouldn't be able to act around Cheltenham, particularly now as he's settling and jumping much better.

"He is a different type of horse than he was as a novice hurdler, and novice chaser. He's much more professional now."
 
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YoungHustler said:
Watching Majborough reminds me of watching El Fabiolo in that I'm always hoping the next approaching fence isn't going to be clobbered!

It's clear to see that Maj isn't the best of jumpers but boy does he have a massive engine. Today was Found A Fifty's Gold Cup, third run of the season and being given weight by a horse who was having his debut on an unfavoured right hand track. If Maj hadn't clobbered the second last, he would have won imo.

I know some don't pay attention to RPRs but what will FAF get for this run? He already got a 167 last time out so I think he'll get something similar. With this in mind, Maj can't be rated too far behind imo, so just imagine what he can achieve when fully fit, going left handed and jumping slightly cleaner? There's always going to be mistakes and unclean jumps but unless he makes a serious race ending mistake, he would still be the CC winner imo. So basically, you would be betting 6/1 if he makes a serious race ending mistake or not. Note El Fabiolo did just this when going off 2/9 a couple of years ago!
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I think what I was trying say to was much much better articulated by Kevin Blake!

Maj gets an RPR of 169 for yesterday's "underperformance and terrible jumping" 🤣🤣. I really don't think he ran that badly and the RPR backs this up but obviously the RPR is only someone's opinion. Note Marine's best is 173...
 
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Eggs said:
….Kevin Blake’s take on Maj;

We see the power of suggestion in action all the time in horse racing. If an influential voice makes a comment or offers a theory on a race or horse, it is remarkable how quickly it can become accepted as the definitive interpretation, even if it doesn’t stand up to closer scrutiny.

I believe we saw a prime example of this in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork on Sunday.

The Willie Mullins-trained Majborough was sent off at 4/6 to make a winning start to his campaign and consolidate his position as the ante-post favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. However, he was beaten by 1½ lengths by Found A Fifty, with a great amount of negative scrutiny being aimed at his jumping. Such was the negative reaction to his performance that he doubled in price for the Queen Mother Champion Chase from 3/1 to 6/1.

The thing is, I really can’t see what the fuss is about, and actually thought he ran a career-best race in defeat.

First of all, let’s deal with what has been the main focus of his performance - his jumping. Just to make sure that my view wasn’t being unduly influenced by pre-conceived views, I re-watched all of his starts over fences back-to-back from his chasing debut onwards.

Throughout his time over fences, Majborough has been consistent in his jumping tendencies. He is generally a low, attacking jumper of a fence. He habitually adjusts to his left, which has been magnified by the fact that three of his five starts over fences have come around right-handed tracks. Most significantly, he isn’t very good at shortening up into his fences when required. He is naturally aggressive, and when he is on a wrong stride he has more often than not just launched himself at the fence. Though, with one exception where he bulldozed through the second-last fence in the Arkle and lost his hind legs on landing, these occasional clumsy leaps haven’t tended to cost him much ground or momentum.

So, in the context of what we already knew about Majborough’s tendencies, I really didn’t see anything surprising or concerning in his jumping performance last Sunday.

Yes, he adjusted to his left quite a bit, which was costly around this right-handed track. Nothing new there. He was a shade clumsy at a couple when needing to shorten, but again there was nothing new in that and he didn’t lose any ground of note in doing so. The most significant mistake he made came at the second-last fence, when he got in close and looked to bulldoze his way through it. But, while it looked dramatic, he didn’t appear to lose much more than half a length as a consequence.

Going back to the power of suggestion, I believe commentators can have an impact on the perception of the viewer. Given that Majborough already had negative focus on his jumping after his memorable error in the Arkle, perhaps the fact that the brilliant Jerry Hannon made a negative comment on five of Majborough’s last seven jumps on Sunday played a role in shaping the flavour of response to the performance. Mullins amplified the negativity by declaring his disappointment with his round of jumping immediately after the race too. Before long, all that could be seen on social media were multitudes of adjectives declaring how abysmally Majborough had jumped.

Doctors differ and all that, but I just can’t agree with such assessments. Of course, viewed in isolation, it wasn’t the round of jumping one would ideally want to see from a potential Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, but that is Majborough’s way and that way hasn’t stopped him quickly rising to the top end of the table in the two-mile chase division.

When one has dealt with Majborough’s jumping, I felt his overall performance on the day was also far better than it was given credit for. Found A Fifty has had a few blips in his career, but he is a serious horse that is worth every bit of his official rating of 164 on his day. He came into the Hilly Way hard-fit, having already had two runs this season, and with conditions to suit. Majborough faced a far tougher task in giving away 4lb to him around a right-handed track than the market suggested, and there was absolutely no shame in being beaten by him on the day. While he was beaten, he actually comes out of the race as the best horse at the weights, and to me that represents a career-best effort from him.

As should be obvious at this stage, I think the market has completely overreacted in pushing Majborough out to 6/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. He will presumably return to his preferred left-handed track at Leopardstown next time, and with the benefit of this run under his belt even better can be expected there.

Given all that has been said above about his jumping tendencies, in a perfect world I would love to see him ridden with an aggression that matches his own characteristics. He clearly doesn’t excel when asked to shorten at a fence and can get himself in bother, so I’d love to see him ridden forwardly and attacking his fences. That isn’t natural style of his regular rider Mark Walsh, but such a style of ride is what appeals as being likely to make the best of Majborough.

Wherever he goes and whatever way he is ridden, Majborough promises to be seriously exciting viewing. I am certainly keeping the faith in him as a future Queen Mother Champion Chase winner anyway.
Click to expand...
Not having it, his jumping yesterday and every other chase run to date has been terrible. One bad mistake puts you out of the champion chase and you can bank on him doing that
 
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BigL said:
Not having it, his jumping yesterday and every other chase run to date has been terrible. One bad mistake puts you out of the champion chase and you can bank on him doing that
Click to expand...

I was thinking about exactly this today and is a worry but all the horses up the top of the market are prone to it or have some kind of questions to answer regarding Cheltenham. It could come down to who has the cleanest round. Talent wise, i think Majborough is the best of all of them but has to have a decent round of jumping.
 
Plenty of views have been aired re RPRs, the reality is RPRs are given to every horse for every performance so there will be mistakes and they are there to be shot down.
The BHA only have to give/amend Official Ratings so a horse like Banbridge who was beat 20 odd lengths will probably have his mark left unchanged or they might drop him a pound, the Racing Post have to give him a 'rating' for his performance, which they have done at 140, the BHA won't be dropping him a stone based on an effort some will see as below par.
I don't have a firm view but I do have some sympathy with them having to provide an assessment for every run, which will be in the region of a thousand a week....
 
Istabraq said:
Plenty of views have been aired re RPRs, the reality is RPRs are given to every horse for every performance so there will be mistakes and they are there to be shot down.
The BHA only have to give/amend Official Ratings so a horse like Banbridge who was beat 20 odd lengths will probably have his mark left unchanged or they might drop him a pound, the Racing Post have to give him a 'rating' for his performance, which they have done at 140, the BHA won't be dropping him a stone based on an effort some will see as below par.
I don't have a firm view but I do have some sympathy with them having to provide an assessment for every run, which will be in the region of a thousand a week....
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BHA also award a performance figure on each race in addition to changing or leaving the official rating.
 
BigL said:
Not having it, his jumping yesterday and every other chase run to date has been terrible. One bad mistake puts you out of the champion chase and you can bank on him doing that
Click to expand...
If he was a terrible jumper, he just wouldn't finish within a length of FAF (a solid yardstick) on his first run of the season and in open company. He's a decent jumper who does make several mistakes because he's chancey.

I hadn't backed beforehand but I'll take the revised 6s now. I actually quite like that, despite making several errors in his races, he always finds a leg, it'll serve him well. He obviously could do with sharpening his jumping but I wouldn't be too concerned personally. They just need to teach him to see a stride. Could be similar to Kauto, who finds bundles of improvement when upped in trip. We know he'll stay
 
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Ellisgittings said:
If he was a terrible jumper, he just wouldn't finish within a length of FAF (a solid yardstick) on his first run of the season and in open company. He's a decent jumper who does make several mistakes because he's chancey.

I hadn't backed beforehand but I'll take the revised 6s now. I actually quite like that, despite making several errors in his races, he always finds a leg, it'll serve him well. He obviously could do with sharpening his jumping but I wouldn't be too concerned personally. They just need to teach him to see a stride. Could be similar to Kauto, who finds bundles of improvement when upped in trip. We know he'll stay
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What’s your view re Constitution Hill ?’
I haven’t seen comments from last weekend so no idea if you’ve shared an opinion on him, I’m just interested in the thinking, backing top class horses with jumping flaws because they’ve reached a point you believe they’re value….
 
Ellisgittings said:
If he was a terrible jumper, he just wouldn't finish within a length of FAF (a solid yardstick) on his first run of the season and in open company. He's a decent jumper who does make several mistakes because he's chancey.

I hadn't backed beforehand but I'll take the revised 6s now. I actually quite like that, despite making several errors in his races, he always finds a leg, it'll serve him well. He obviously could do with sharpening his jumping but I wouldn't be too concerned personally. They just need to teach him to see a stride. Could be similar to Kauto, who finds bundles of improvement when upped in trip. We know he'll stay
Click to expand...
Raceiq jumps data had Maj as jumping better than FAF.

https://www.racingtv.com/results/2025-12-07/cork/1450
 
A very baffling race right now.

Jonbon - past his prime and probably going up in trip.
Majborough - jumping a bit sketchy but has a good engine.
IET - Poor Cheltenham form but is he an improved horse?
Marine Nationale - Not much to dislike but short in the betting and not seen yet and quite ground dependent.
Sir Gino - May not come here, if reverting to hurdles
LDS - Is he really a grade 1 horse?

As it stands, assuming Sir Gino goes hurdling, then I cannot see past one of Majborough or Marine Nationale. Personally, I would rather bet on a horse with Cheltenham course form and ideally, festival form. I have placed a small bet on Majborough at 8-1 but nothing to get too excited about,
 
Istabraq said:
What’s your view re Constitution Hill ?’
I haven’t seen comments from last weekend so no idea if you’ve shared an opinion on him, I’m just interested in the thinking, backing top class horses with jumping flaws because they’ve reached a point you believe they’re value….
Click to expand...
I think it's slightly different because Maj is young and (likely) improving for one, but has never fell despite mistakes. CH can't be trusted to get round at the minute.

But it brings you to the same point. CH was a brilliant hurdler as a young horse and at his peak, arguably the best 2m hurdler technique we've ever seen. Before the 2025 Champion Hurdle, I can't think of one mistake at a hurdle. He was long at the final hurdle in 2023, but it wasn't a mistake - he winged it. He was that good he got away with launching from where most other horses wouldn't. Because he'd never made a mistake, he's never learned to find a leg when he hits one and loses momentum. He came down in March, his confidence is shot now. It's imperfect science but I think horses 'learn' whilst making mistakes how to stick a leg out, and land running and stay on their feet. Horses that don't make mistakes have no experience of that when they do hit one, and can often come down. I recall Ruby (I think?) noting it as a reason Kauto managed to stay on his feet so much despite being such a sketchy jumper
 
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I never mind sketchy jumpers with an engine either at a young age because they have obvious avenues for improvement. You can train a horse to jump better at speed, they'll do it naturally through race development. You generally can't make a horse run faster. You'd fancy that if they ran that Hilly Way under the exact same race conditions this time next year, Maj will beat FAF just through natural jumping improvements. He probs wins if he doesn't nail the second last anyway
 
@Ellisgittings
Thanks.
Con Hill took off a stride too early in the International, something he’s done a multiple times since, personally I think it’s an issue in his head.
I see your reasoning re Majborough and of course the 4lb will probably put him in front next time anyway, though a year ago Jonbon was the 2m darling, he clouted one (on Trials Day ?) and did the same in the Champion Chase, at that level mistakes can be race ending….
 

Il Etait Temps 174 from 172​

Il Etait Temps ended last season as Timeform's top two-mile chaser, with his Celebration Chase defeat of Jonbon rated higher than Marine Nationale's victories in the Champion Chases at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Il Etait Temps underlined his status as the one to beat in the division by handing Jonbon an even more comprehensive beating in the Tingle Creek Chase back at Sandown, increasing the winning margin to nine lengths from five and a half lengths.

A steady early pace meant that the winning time was significantly slower than that clocked by Lulamba over the same course and distance early in the afternoon, but Il Etait Temps still deserves credit for how readily he asserted his superiority and his performance has been rated as the best in the race since Altior's victory over Un de Sceaux in 2018.

Il Etait Temps is now rated 7 lb higher than Marine Nationale and 8 lb higher than Majborough, who now has something to prove after he was again let down by his jumping when runner-up to Found A Fifty in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork. The only horse in training rated higher than Il Etait Temps is stablemate Galopin Des Champs.
 
YoungHustler said:
Raceiq jumps data had Maj as jumping better than FAF.

https://www.racingtv.com/results/2025-12-07/cork/1450
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As far as I’m aware, the Race IQ stuff isn’t really about how well they jump it’s based on speed into the jump and then away from the jump. So in this instance the mistakes Majborough was making, didn’t halt any momentum at the other side, he still manages to get away at 2m speed required to look good on the data.

Someone may correct me if I’m wrong but pretty sure that’s how the data is registered.
 
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