2025 Triumph Hurdle

[Eggs]

Plenty of chat already in the diaries about Juveniles and where they’re heading.

Latest odds;
Willy de Houelle 7-1
Lecoeurdeshommes 14-1
Olympic Story 16-1
Charles 16-1

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Willy De Houelle is a ridiculous price now (been cut again today by Hills, into 6/1), even more so after Nietzsche Has got beat. Some will hang on to other form for him, but ultimately all that was ever spoken of prior to Nietzsche Has running with regard to WDH was Nietzsche Has this and Nietzsche Has that. He's of course, with the perfect trainer though, and no doubt will come good at some point.

I still think Murcia is a cracking E/W bet @ 33/1 (SkyBet have clipped her into 20's today), though I re-watched her last run again today where she hammered the field, and forgot how small she looks (may be no bad thing). Some of her form lines took a hit this week as well though, after Chole Du Berlais & Tide Of Dreams both got pulled up in the Prix de Chambly at Auteuil.

Charlus has been another talking horse of some, though I'm not convinced he's going to be as good as Vauban was and I'm not overly taken with how Churchills have taken to hurdles, more so what ratings they've achieved, albeit he is only into his third season as a sire for jumps horses, so deserves time to produce one of note.

Given how Willie has campaigned previous Triumph contenders, I'm expecting Willy De Houelle to be seen fairly early, going the Lossiemouth route (Grade 3 at Fairyhouse early Dec.), with Murcia running in the same race that both Kargese & Gala Marceau run in on Boxing Day (Grade 2 @ Leopardstown) and then Charlus to follow in the footsteps of Vauban in the 3yo Maiden (Punchestown at the end of the year).

There are a couple that interest me outside of Willies yard, one being Sauvignon, for Paul Nicholls, and given how he finished his races at both Lyon & Auteuil (on his final start) I'd say a stiff track like Cheltenham will most definitely suit him, though he looks a fair stamp of a horse (reminds me a little of Majborough), a typical Nicholls chasing type, and a galloper, rather than one that's blessed with a whole heap of tactical speed, so it will remain to be seen if he can go the gallop of a Triumph Hurdle.

The other that interests me I am keeping under wraps until some bookmakers price him up, but he wouldn't be top of any lists, mostly because of his trainer being out of touch nowadays with regards to festival winners.

 

[darlojim]

Willy De Houelle is a ridiculous price now (been cut again today by Hills, into 6/1), even more so after Nietzsche Has got beat. Some will hang on to other form for him, but ultimately all that was ever spoken of prior to Nietzsche Has running with regard to WDH was Nietzsche Has this and Nietzsche Has that. He's of course, with the perfect trainer though, and no doubt will come good at some point.

A classic case of those that have backed him won't be too concerned about Nietzsche Has' run yesterday and those that haven't backed him will be trying to enhance a case against him, it's just what punters do as there is always a bias. But one thing that must said, twitter lot were going on like he was beaten himself yesterday :emmersed: Didn't see many mention NH was actually carrying a 9lb penalty and pulled a cart the first mile too.

All will be seen in time though!

Capbello Dino was also exported out of FR yesterday, another to keep half an eye on.

**In terms of Sauvignon, I personally thought it was his flat speed that won him the race the last day, he was still a fair bit down on Sony Bill and didn't hurdle as fluent at the last, but quick enough made up the ground all the way to the line.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Sauvignon will be one of the better juveniles this year. Rated 69 in France which is decent for that time of year, although the ratings in general for the juveniles seem quite high this year.

Good 2nd to Apollon du Luy (giving weight) in May who won a competitive juvenile listed race earlier in the month. The 3rd in the race in May has been bought by the Donnelly's and is with Willie - Fou de Toi. He could be one left for next season as a maiden but one I'll be following if he gets entered somewhere this season.

Henderson doesn't seem to have any from what I can see.

Willy de Houelle - I wouldn't worry about NDH losing this week. Giving weight away, too free and we've seen the best juveniles lose first time out in the Autumn previously when giving weight away.

 

[JackieMoon33]

A classic case of those that have backed him won't be too concerned about Nietzsche Has' run yesterday and those that haven't backed him will be trying to enhance a case against him, it's just what punters do as there is always a bias. But one thing that must said, twitter lot were going on like he was beaten himself yesterday :emmersed: Didn't see many mention NH was actually carrying a 9lb penalty and pulled a cart the first mile too.

All will be seen in time though!

Capbello Dino was also exported out of FR yesterday, another to keep half an eye on.

**In terms of Sauvignon, I personally thought it was his flat speed that won him the race the last day, he was still a fair bit down on Sony Bill and didn't hurdle as fluent at the last, but quick enough made up the ground all the way to the line.

Sauvignon will be coughing his guts up coming up the Cheltenham hill. I’m prepared to donate £100 to charity if Inns Of Court sires a festival winner!

 

[darlojim]

Henderson doesn't seem to have any from what I can see.

Yeah been trying to find out whether he'd got any juves but to no avail.

Always good to try find one either side of the Irish Sea, but looks like Im all IRE this season!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Sauvignon will be coughing his guts up coming up the Cheltenham hill. I’m prepared to donate £100 to charity if Inns Of Court sires a festival winner!

I must admit, as someone who looks heavily into the breeding, I was surprised the way Sauvignon finished 2 of his 3 runs to date, finishing incredibly well, to get up and win.

It may be the opposition was massively inferior but I don't think Sony Bill is.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I must admit, as someone who looks heavily into the breeding, I was surprised the way Sauvignon finished 2 of his 3 runs to date, finishing incredibly well, to get up and win.

It may be the opposition was massively inferior but I don't think Sony Bill is.

I’m surprised you called out Charlus on breeding but gave Sauvignon a free pass.

I’ve only started to watch back some French racing of late but Sauvignon strikes me as having flat speed rather than stamina. A lot of those French races are not run at a true pace and can end up a sprint. I’ve not checked the times of Sauvignons races though to know if that’s the case.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

A classic case of those that have backed him won't be too concerned about Nietzsche Has' run yesterday and those that haven't backed him will be trying to enhance a case against him, it's just what punters do as there is always a bias. But one thing that must said, twitter lot were going on like he was beaten himself yesterday :emmersed: Didn't see many mention NH was actually carrying a 9lb penalty and pulled a cart the first mile too.

I've backed him, one at a decent enough price too, so it's not a case of that for me at all.

Nietzsche Has was made out to be the crack juvenile in France this season and has form ties with Willy De Houelle, among others. The form was let down, whichever way it is spun. It's certainly not a positive that he got beat, is it?

I'm not saying it suddenly means Willy De Houelle can't win the Triumph, because that's simply not true, but the case for him was largely based around the form with Nietzsche Has, which was let down.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m surprised you called out Charlus on breeding but gave Sauvignon a free pass.

I’ve only started to watch back some French racing of late but Sauvignon strikes me as having flat speed rather than stamina. A lot of those French races are not run at a true pace and can end up a sprint. I’ve not checked the times of Sauvignons races though to know if that’s the case.

Sauvignon wouldn't have got a free pass had I not watched his races and how he finished them. I was of the opinion he lacked tactical speed initially and plugged on to finish really well. I might have to revisit and assess the times.

Charlus hasn't been over hurdles and is by a sire who I'm not overly keen on, either. He'll probably come good at some point but I don't think Charlus will stay well enough up the hill.

 

[darlojim]

I’ve only started to watch back some French racing of late but Sauvignon strikes me as having flat speed rather than stamina. A lot of those French races are not run at a true pace and can end up a sprint. I’ve not checked the times of Sauvignons races though to know if that’s the case.

Having had a spare 5mins just now, I've went through his latest win, and compared it to Murcia who ran half hour later

Both carried 10st3 (Murcia obviously a filly)

Very little difference in times overall

Sauvignon 4mins 14secs
Murcia 4mins 14.31secs

I simultaneously started both races from the 1st hurdle before the back straight, both were within a length or 2 of eachother until the 2nd last down the back where Murcia had gone a little. Coming to the 1st hurdle in the straight Murcia had kicked on by maybe 6-7L (to the eye) and maintained that until the last furlong where Sauvignon started to close back in, finishing probably 4L down at the line.

 

[darlojim]

I've backed him, one at a decent enough price too, so it's not a case of that for me at all.

Nietzsche Has was made out to be the crack juvenile in France this season and has form ties with Willy De Houelle, among others. The form was let down, whichever way it is spun. It's certainly not a positive that he got beat, is it?

I'm not saying it suddenly means Willy De Houelle can't win the Triumph, because that's simply not true, but the case for him was largely based around the form with Nietzsche Has, which was let down.

I was thinking of that ginge when typing that tbh (no offence to gingers.. )

I'm strongly of the opinion that I'll happily wait to see Nietzsche out next time before considering the form to be honest. If he were off level weights yesterday he'd have finished right up there? After pulling a cart too..

My case for Willy certainly wasn't just the fact he had form with NH though. The fact Willie went in and bought form behind the 2 of them also adds confidence for him, and regardless of what people may think, Djins still has the collateral form through Sony Bill for WdH.

* Seen you mention a small let down on Murcia form too, but Chloe du Berlais was injured yesterday in running so that can be ignored - Tide of dreams I personally wouldn't look into too much.

 

[darlojim]

A little bit of context to people that may read into French form a little bit too much...

Lossiemouth's win in the Prix Geographie - the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in that race have only managed 3 wins between them all in 25 runs since.

Majboroughs' win in the Prix Grandak - The 2nd failed to win over hurdles that season, the 3rd had only managed to get 2 wins at the French equivalent of Plumpton. The 4th unable to get a win over hurdles and won on chasing debut at 'Meslay-du-Maine'

Let's see what the actual purchased horses can do before we critique too much, for all that I suppose that's what this forum is for :watermelon:

WdH isn't even my biggest return either so no bias :angel:

 

[Lobos]

Having had a spare 5mins just now, I've went through his latest win, and compared it to Murcia who ran half hour later

Both carried 10st3 (Murcia obviously a filly)

Very little difference in times overall

Sauvignon 4mins 14secs
Murcia 4mins 14.31secs

I simultaneously started both races from the 1st hurdle before the back straight, both were within a length or 2 of eachother until the 2nd last down the back where Murcia had gone a little. Coming to the 1st hurdle in the straight Murcia had kicked on by maybe 6-7L (to the eye) and maintained that until the last furlong where Sauvignon started to close back in, finishing probably 4L down at the line.

Love this.

Fair play. I'd never go into that much detail.

 

[Lobos]

A little bit of context to people that may read into French form a little bit too much...

Lossiemouth's win in the Prix Geographie - the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in that race have only managed 3 wins between them all in 25 runs since.

Majboroughs' win in the Prix Grandak - The 2nd failed to win over hurdles that season, the 3rd had only managed to get 2 wins at the French equivalent of Plumpton. The 4th unable to get a win over hurdles and won on chasing debut at 'Meslay-du-Maine'

Let's see what the actual purchased horses can do before we critique too much, for all that I suppose that's what this forum is for :watermelon:

WdH isn't even my biggest return either so no bias :angel:

The 'special' feed that Willie uses is clearly magical !!

 

[JackieMoon33]

Sauvignon wouldn't have got a free pass had I not watched his races and how he finished them. I was of the opinion he lacked tactical speed initially and plugged on to finish really well. I might have to revisit and assess the times.

Charlus hasn't been over hurdles and is by a sire who I'm not overly keen on, either. He'll probably come good at some point but I don't think Charlus will stay well enough up the hill.

On paper I’d take Charlus to get up the hill better than Sauvignon. Both have flat pedigrees but Charlus would trump Sauvignon in terms of stamina.

It will be interesting how they both get on and whether Charlus even hurdles this year. He could be one that gets held back by Willie or just comes out late with a shot-to-nothing in the end of season graded races.

 

[darlojim]

It will be interesting how they both get on and whether Charlus even hurdles this year. He could be one that gets held back by Willie or just comes out late with a shot-to-nothing in the end of season graded races.

He was bought with the plan being to go hurdling this year, so presume the only reason he wouldn't be doing so is if he has a setback or isn't showing them enough at his age.

 

[JackieMoon33]

He was bought with the plan being to go hurdling this year, so presume the only reason he wouldn't be doing so is if he has a setback or isn't showing them enough at his age.

I’d say there’s a fair chance he’ll be at Ascot next Summer.

 

[darlojim]

I’d say there’s a fair chance he’ll be at Ascot next Summer.

oh 100% - they've said he'll be a dual purpose type so no doubt be one of those Ascot races Willie targets.

 

[JackieMoon33]

oh 100% - they've said he'll be a dual purpose type so no doubt be one of those Ascot races Willie targets.

Let’s hope he fares better than Zillow, as he was bought with the same plan and I’m still waiting on him hitting the track. Any ideas what happened with him?