2025, The Odds on Offer

[Bollinger]

I'd say 5/4 is OK, I'd expect it to be a shade of odds on.
The risk really centres around the chase discussion rearing up again, we know he's half a stone (or more) better than State Man and I can't believe any of this years novices will be threatening his crown in open company.
Is there a comparison market, win this years champion hurdle and any race 2025 ?
I'd happily play this at around 4/7.
It's all academic for me as I don't have access to these markets and I can't believe you'd get much on anyway, but best of luck if you can...

I sincerely believe the ‘Chase discussion’ has been parked in the bin signposted ‘Chase discussion for Con’ Hill’???

I fully appreciate there were no online internet discussions in these former eras, but was there ever a mooted chat as to whether Hurricane Fly or Istabraq would go chasing after being dual Champ hurdle winners? I mean, I wouldn’t know for sure, but would hugely doubt it.

Con Hill can only (if winning this year’s Champ Hurdle) be racing at Cheltenham in 2025 in the Champion Hurdle? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I really couldn’t see any reason he wouldn’t??

 

[HesTheOne]

What price would you make a horse to show up sound in 12 months time?

Am sure someone has done the hard yards on this one before

 

[HesTheOne]

I sincerely believe the ‘Chase discussion’ has been parked in the bin signposted ‘Chase discussion for Con’ Hill’???

I fully appreciate there were no online internet discussions in these former eras, but was there ever a mooted chat as to whether Hurricane Fly or Istabraq would go chasing after being dual Champ hurdle winners? I mean, I wouldn’t know for sure, but would hugely doubt it.

Con Hill can only (if winning this year’s Champ Hurdle) be racing at Cheltenham in 2025 in the Champion Hurdle? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I really couldn’t see any reason he wouldn’t??

Yea no way he goes chasing after skipping it this year. Be on for the treble.

Can only see chasing perhaps coming into it if he is beat in March - which seams rather unlikely

 

[Deleted member 4957]

What price would you make a horse to show up sound in 12 months time?

Am sure someone has done the hard yards on this one before

archie believes this to 50%, probably a fair estimate...

 

[Bollinger]

archie believes this to 50%, probably a fair estimate...

Are we suggesting that if for example 300 horses run at this year’s festival, only 150 of these will be available for 2025??

An extremely far fetched estimate. The very large majority of horses (importantly, that are good enough) run annually at the festival for a period of at least 4-5 years. Yes, there are injuries. But I would suggest it’s more like a 20% or less chance that any given horse won’t make it to the following year’s festival due to injury.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I sincerely believe the ‘Chase discussion’ has been parked in the bin signposted ‘Chase discussion for Con’ Hill’???

I fully appreciate there were no online internet discussions in these former eras, but was there ever a mooted chat as to whether Hurricane Fly or Istabraq would go chasing after being dual Champ hurdle winners? I mean, I wouldn’t know for sure, but would hugely doubt it.

Con Hill can only (if winning this year’s Champ Hurdle) be racing at Cheltenham in 2025 in the Champion Hurdle? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I really couldn’t see any reason he wouldn’t??

I tend to agree but it won't stop the chat, media hype and no doubt Hendo adding fuel to the fire in endless interviews.
I've said for a long time there is a snobery in NH racing towards chasers when, for me, some of the best horses in history have been hurdlers, Istabraq, Sea Pigeon, See You Then, Hattons Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War all triple winners and of course Big Bucks in the stayers division although he was a failed chaser).
There always seems to a push for the good ones to go chasing, a champion hurdle is no less a prize than a champion chase for me...

 

[Bollinger]

I remember a couple of years ago someone saying here they’d worked out it was an evens money chance that any horse would make it to the next year’s festival.

It would be very short odds on, I’d be very confident of that.

If Con Hill wins this years’s Champ Hurdle by 6 plus lengths, and go’s 4/7 straight away for next year’s edition, message me and I’ll take the evens money instead - and no need to worry if he just turns up and finishies last.

Come on ‘He’s the One’, evens money for any horse to make it to the following year’s festival would be the steal of the century.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Are we suggesting that if for example 300 horses run at this year’s festival, only 150 of these will be available for 2025??

An extremely far fetched estimate. The very large majority of horses (importantly, that are good enough) run annually at the festival for a period of at least 4-5 years. Yes, there are injuries. But I would suggest it’s more like a 20% or less chance that any given horse won’t make it to the following year’s festival due to injury.

There are currently 62 horses listed in the Out of Festival thread.
2023 there were 58

This thread only captures the ante post casualties, non runners in the week are not listed so not unreasonable to assume 75 horses don't line up, this also doesn't capture every horse in training so some will get missed.
I think archie's 50% is fair...

 

[Bollinger]

I hope when all those very average ex Caldwell Construction horses like ex F’il Dor & Pied Piper were going in excess of 500k a few weeks ago, nobody was looking up the ‘50%’ stat. That’s a hell of a lot of money to pay up front for ultmately handicap prize money going forwards and then you’re wondering if it’s 50/50 they’ll be making it for next year, or 2027 hence after.

 

[Eggs]

….Ladbrokes;

Lossie CH 6-1
F2F GC 8-1
Sir Gino Ark 8-1 (was 20-1)
Bally Ark 10-1
Jade de G MH 12-1
MN CC 12-1
BDA MH 16-1
Il Est Francais GC 16-1
SAF GC 25-1
FV Ry 33-1

….Ile est Francais GC now 10-1 (from 16-1).

 

[Bollinger]

16’s was beautiful value.

I thought 12 months out he was exceptional value at 16’s.

It’s where he’s heading.

I’d love to know the last horse that 10 months out from an intended target of a King George was 2/1 very clear favourite and 10 weeks later 16/1 for his next intended target.

There won’t be many ricks like that a bookie makes as an ante post liability.

 

[riccirich]

16’s was beautiful value.

I thought 12 months out he was exceptional value at 16’s.

It’s where he’s heading.

I’d love to know the last horse that 10 months out from an intended target of a King George was 2/1 very clear favourite and 10 weeks later 16/1 for his next intended target.

There won’t be many ricks like that a bookie makes as an ante post liability.

16s was value, as he's obviously shortened, and likely will continue to.

But just on the horse himself, I haven't seen it mentioned much that the form of his Kempton run was let down by Hermes Allen next time. He was 15 lengths down on nickle back when tragedy struck. It was over half a mile less which may not have suited him as well as the 3m at Kempton, but it's definitely enough to cast doubt on how good Il est Francais actually is imo.

 

[Bollinger]

16s was value, as he's obviously shortened, and likely will continue to.

But just on the horse himself, I haven't seen it mentioned much that the form of his Kempton run was let down by Hermes Allen next time. He was 15 lengths down on nickle back when tragedy struck. It was over half a mile less which may not have suited him as well as the 3m at Kempton, but it's definitely enough to cast doubt on how good Il est Francais actually is imo.

I thought when the trainer Noel George said last week (about Il Est Francais) - ‘If he went to Cheltenham & Aintree, he’d probably win them both….’ was fairly telling in terms of the huge confidence he has that this horse might be very special.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

His next start is over 3m6f isn't it

He hasn't a hope of staying that far does he?

Will need a great ride to get him to settle well enough to get home over that far

 

[Quevega]

I thought when the trainer Noel George said last week (about Il Est Francais) - ‘If he went to Cheltenham & Aintree, he’d probably win them both….’ was fairly telling in terms of the huge confidence he has that this horse might be very special.

There's something a bit hollow about the trainer's comments on Cheltenham & Aintree though, don't you think ?

If Henderson came out and said Constitution Hill would win at Dublin and Punchestown he'd get shouted down and I'd be first in the queue. Not because he's wrong, but because he's wrong to say it and not back it up.

And Ricci is right, the form in behind him at Kempton has not exactly been franked to the extent that he's definitely as good as he looked, although I suspect he might be.

 

[Rooster Booster]

There's something a bit hollow about the trainer's comments on Cheltenham & Aintree though, don't you think ?

If Henderson came out and said Constitution Hill would win at Dublin and Punchestown he'd get shouted down and I'd be first in the queue. Not because he's wrong, but because he's wrong to say it and not back it up.

And Ricci is right, the form in behind him at Kempton has not exactly been franked to the extent that he's definitely as good as he looked, although I suspect he might be.

I don’t see it as hollow. I see it more as a dig to superior brits who think our racing is far superior and connections should run over here for prestige rather than in France for money.

 

[Quevega]

I don’t see it as hollow. I see it more as a dig to superior brits who think our racing is far superior and connections should run over here for prestige rather than in France for money.

That's not what he said though.
He said that he'd win if they ran him.
Which is fine but he's not going to run, so Meh !

Who are these superior brits by the way :highly_amused: Are they deluded ?
I'm a brit and think we're bang average at the minute at racing horses. Compared to our main competitors over the Irish sea.

Prestige vs Money in Sport is a very tricky discussion.
I think being more liberal minded I'd go with Prestige mostly, but would have very little problems with those that go for the money - although I don't think this completely applies in this scenario.

I've no issue with them not running here whatsoever, just the comments seem pretty pointless, and he perhaps should be cautious not to get too carried away.
I like to see trainers talk like that about their horses, but not hypothetically.

 

[Odin]

His next start is over 3m6f isn't it

He hasn't a hope of staying that far does he?

Will need a great ride to get him to settle well enough to get home over that far

And if he doesn't win, they've openly spoken about wanting to win the French gold cup and king George more than any other races. I know Cheltenham has been mentioned, but it seems secondary to those two objectives.

16/1 was a good price though when you compare it to the likely price of fact to file or stay away fay if they win the RSA. I'll guess 4/1 FTF and 6/1 fay if either scenario happens

 

[Rooster Booster]

That's not what he said though.
He said that he'd win if they ran him.
Which is fine but he's not going to run, so Meh !

Who are these superior brits by the way :highly_amused: Are they deluded ?
I'm a brit and think we're bang average at the minute at racing horses. Compared to our main competitors over the Irish sea.

Prestige vs Money in Sport is a very tricky discussion.
I think being more liberal minded I'd go with Prestige mostly, but would have very little problems with those that go for the money - although I don't think this completely applies in this scenario.

I've no issue with them not running here whatsoever, just the comments seem pretty pointless, and he perhaps should be cautious not to get too carried away.
I like to see trainers talk like that about their horses, but not hypothetically.

I know what he said. I have just interpreted the message different to you.

If someone involved in international racing read your post I suspect even the phrase ‘I have no issue’ could be seen as a British punter claiming a significance that they simply don’t have. Us brits use phrases like this (and perhaps he should be’) a lot and from working abroad a great deal I can confirm we are not liked for it. I know as a Brit it’s harmless, meaningless and automatic to use this kind of language but to others it makes us sound self important.

We use this kind of language in the media all the time and the racing industry in Britain is rife with it and that will not be lost on other racing countries.

As a Brit abroad I suspect he is very sensitive to hearing us talk over here about how they should run in our more prestigious races rather than the inferior French races for more money.

Just like we talk at a national level like we are still an important nation in the world because of our past we are still labelling races as prestigious despite the patently obvious decline in depth and quality. Prestige means very little unless it’s backed up with here and now substance and our substance is disappearing quicker than our desire to cling on to the spurious notion of prestige.

 

[Eggs]

….i distinctly remember flagging up Ladbrokes offering GDC GC 20-1 at about this time in his novice season. That was popular and worked out well.

Regarding F2F, PP did offer 33-1 BANC/GC (now 12-1) and SAF BANC/GC is currently 50-1. Ladbrokes offer 25-1 SAF to win next years GC, F2F is only 8-1.