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2025, The Odds on Offer

Rooster Booster said:
I know what he said. I have just interpreted the message different to you.

If someone involved in international racing read your post I suspect even the phrase ‘I have no issue’ could be seen as a British punter claiming a significance that they simply don’t have. Us brits use phrases like this (and perhaps he should be’) a lot and from working abroad a great deal I can confirm we are not liked for it. I know as a Brit it’s harmless, meaningless and automatic to use this kind of language but to others it makes us sound self important.

We use this kind of language in the media all the time and the racing industry in Britain is rife with it and that will not be lost on other racing countries.

As a Brit abroad I suspect he is very sensitive to hearing us talk over here about how they should run in our more prestigious races rather than the inferior French races for more money.

Just like we talk at a national level like we are still an important nation in the world because of our past we are still labelling races as prestigious despite the patently obvious decline in depth and quality. Prestige means very little unless it’s backed up with here and now substance and our substance is disappearing quicker than our desire to cling on to the spurious notion of prestige.
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Whilst I understand what you're saying.
And I'm certainly no fan of jingoism at any level. So any sniff of that from myself would likely be unconscious and/or misinterpreted.
I'm much more of a Planet type of guy and a Human race fan. And I fully expect you weren't suggesting anything different and making a general observation :encouragement:

But it's probably also typically British and a little ignorant to not appreciate that the exact same sort of attitude and language exists in every Country on the planet, apart from maybe Canada :highly_amused:

They just might be based around different topics.

Probably why there are not many Fish and Chip shops in France.
 
Quevega said:
Whilst I understand what you're saying.
And I'm certainly no fan of jingoism at any level. So any sniff of that from myself would likely be unconscious and/or misinterpreted.
I'm much more of a Planet type of guy and a Human race fan. And I fully expect you weren't suggesting anything different and making a general observation :encouragement:

But it's probably also typically British and a little ignorant to not appreciate that the exact same sort of attitude and language exists in every Country on the planet, apart from maybe Canada :highly_amused:

They just might be based around different topics.

Probably why there are not many Fish and Chip shops in France.
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Absolutely wasn’t aimed at you, quite the opposite in fact otherwise I would not have posted so directly if that makes sense. . Yes very much a general observation, I didn’t make that clear enough I’m sorry.

Yes I understand the irony although I have noticed differences in language used in other countries. That said often the language used is iron fist velvet glove stuff and you are right to point out that we are far from unique, we just make it more obvious and as a consequence are easier to judge :excitement:
 
Rooster Booster said:
Absolutely wasn’t aimed at you, quite the opposite in fact otherwise I would not have posted so directly if that makes sense. . Yes very much a general observation, I didn’t make that clear enough I’m sorry.

Yes I understand the irony although I have noticed differences in language used in other countries. That said often the language used is iron fist velvet glove stuff and you are right to point out that we are far from unique, we just make it more obvious and as a consequence are easier to judge :excitement:
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:highly_amused: I actually changed it from "certain" to "fully expect" to not sound too presumptuous.
I prefer to be direct as you know.:encouragement:

Pomposity is more than likely higher up in the British psyche than in other nations for sure, but they're all catching on fast (see, can't help it can I ?)
 
Quevega said:
:highly_amused: I actually changed it from "certain" to "fully expect" to not sound too presumptuous.
I prefer to be direct as you know.:encouragement:

Pomposity is more than likely higher up in the British psyche than in other nations for sure, but they're all catching on fast (see, can't help it can I ?)
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It’s in our dna :welcoming:
 
Eggs said:
….i distinctly remember flagging up Ladbrokes offering GDC GC 20-1 at about this time in his novice season. That was popular and worked out well.

Regarding F2F, PP did offer 33-1 BANC/GC (now 12-1) and SAF BANC/GC is currently 50-1. Ladbrokes offer 25-1 SAF to win next years GC, F2F is only 8-1.
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And he was 33’s a few months prior to that
 
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….some folk chatting about this fella earlier, Lads offer;

William Munny Sup 16-1
 
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As my name has been taken in vain, I should probably put that 50% figure in context. It was part of a general scheme for calculating a 'fudge factor' for comparing a current ante-post price with a potential SP and, as far as I remember, it was, on average, 50% to face the starter in an individual race this far out. It reduced once the horse was back in training in the autumn and then further if it survived the December. We all hear about the big fish who don't make it but there are many others who go under the radar.
You have to factor in the vagaries of Mullins (and others) bingo for novice hurdlers and chasers, injuries, progression and all sorts of things for an individual horse. Who, for instance, would have considered a long range bet on Noble Yeats for the Stayers?
If we're talking Constitution Hill in particular, it was always my view that he would stay hurdling but, on here, in the media and in social media it seemed very much a 50:50 call. You could, in fact, get 6/4 CH for the CH last April so 50% would have looked reasonable back then. As I said at the start, it was only an average figure and you wouldn't be having the same argument this year. However, horses get more fragile as they get older and, while in my opinion, CH only has one logical 2025 target, he is also more likely to have a fitness problem this year than last. Now there is no-one better than NJH at getting fragile horses right for one big day but he is also top of the pops for not risking his stars if he's unhappy with them and that is laudable.

******

I wrote the above a couple of days ago but decided against posting as it might have generated more pointless discussion on betting tactics which are, after all, thoroughly personal and individual. I'm feeling sad at the moment because you want to see the best turn up in top form.
 
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Just to underline the above, of the 13 runners in last year's Gold Cup, only GDC, Bravemansgame, Ahoy Senor and Hewick are likely to run this year.

Also, only 4 of last year's 7 Champion Hurdle runners are even entered this year.

Plus, 4 out of 9 in last year's Ryanair are entered this time. Ga Law may be supplemented but I doubt that the original 4 will all run.
 
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….i read somewhere that Sa Majeste is one to watch over fences next season;

Sa Majeste Turners 20-1 Lad.
 
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Eggs said:
….i read somewhere that Sa Majeste is one to watch over fences next season;

Sa Majeste Turners 20-1 Lad.
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On this one - worth being aware the Willie has Ballyburn and Impaire Et Passe who could both end up being 2.5milers next year and that's without even considering Ile Atlantique, Predators Gold and/or any others who might come out of the woodwork.
 
Eggs said:
….i read somewhere that Sa Majeste is one to watch over fences next season;

Sa Majeste Turners 20-1 Lad.
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Willie saying he could be a future Gold Cup horse. High praise.
 
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….Coral;

BDA Mares Chase 10-1
Bally Turn 3-1
 
20/1 for a horse that's not even won his handicap yet, only 20/1
Jaysus.

Don't like the BDA at 10/1 Mares Chase either (novice races surely too much of a lure against this group of novice hurdlers)

and 3/1 Turners is one of the worst prices I've seen.



Not likely anyone disagrees but :indecisiveness:
 
Kevloaf said:
and 3/1 Turners is one of the worst prices I've seen.
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Considering he's 12/1 for the Supreme/Turners double, the 3's is particularly woeful. If he loses the Supreme he's going to be bigger, even if he wins the Supreme he's still probably going to be around the 5/1 mark for both the Arkle & Turners, you'd imagine.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Considering he's 12/1 for the Supreme/Turners double, the 3's is particularly woeful. If he loses the Supreme he's going to be bigger, even if he wins the Supreme he's still probably going to be around the 5/1 mark for both the Arkle & Turners, you'd imagine.
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….that Sup/Turn offer was 33-1 not long ago, I think PP were convinced he was heading BB.

Edit; that offer was posted here on 31st Jan.
 
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…..for those that aren’t aware, Sky have formed a number of markets for next year.
 
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