2025, The Odds on Offer

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mullins will give it a go though. Despite Henderson's comments this week, they'll be still some doubt around CH and even more so if he doesn't turn up in a real race until next March. As you say, even a sub par CH should still be comfortably ahead of other existing UK trained candidates.

He’s yet to have a real race against any horse.
Im hoping he does at some point so we can really see what he can do.
It would be a real shame if the time he does have a real race it is because he’s been affected by his issues.
Lets hope not.

 

[Craigy14]

Constitution can get a soft prep pretty much whenever and wherever he likes in the UK. It doesn't really matter where he goes. The rest are so far behind he doesn't have to come off the bridle to win ten lengths eased down. In fact he did that to the current Champion Hurdler didn't he?! Probably pointless prepping in a G2 for lesser prizemoney, unless it just fits the programme.

If he's back to his best, when Lossie has to meet him she'll need to have improved another 20lbs from anything she's done so far and still have her 7lb allowance in hand!!!

I agree but with the issues he’s had and the fact it’s Henderson, would you not see him being even more cautious with the horse?

I can’t see him giving the horse 2 runs in 26 days(ish).

 

[Captain Chris]

Should serial G1 winners whose main target being a championship race be using soft G2s as preps to avoid facing another horse ?

A decent race programme wouldn't allow it. Ban G1 winners from non-G1 conditions races for 12 months and push them towards racing together more often. Can always have the option of a handicap...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

A decent race programme wouldn't allow it. Ban G1 winners from non-G1 conditions races for 12 months and push them towards racing together more often. Can always have the option of a handicap...

I like that idea CC, can definitely see the merit...

 

[Eggs]

….Connell confirms Marine National target is Champion Chase, price spread is 7-1 (Hills) shortest, 14-1 (PP/BFSB, 365, BV) biggest.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

….Cromwell confirms Marine National target is Champion Chase, price spread is 7-1 (Hills) shortest, 14-1 (PP/BFSB, 365, BV) biggest.

Any idea what he was before the Cromwell announcement ?

 

[Exar Essay]

Any idea what he was before the Cromwell announcement ?

14-1. [add more characters]

 

[Odin]

….Cromwell confirms Marine National target is Champion Chase, price spread is 7-1 (Hills) shortest, 14-1 (PP/BFSB, 365, BV) biggest.

If you're making a book, I think he has to be covered now just in case, but it's absolute madness that he is as close to price with El Fabiolo that he is...

Marine Nationale chase RPRs: 156, 145
El Fabiolo chase RPRs: 163, 167, 172, 173, 174, 178, 0, 169

 

[Deleted member 4957]

14-1. [add more characters]

OK thanks.
Connell has always gushed over the horse, not without good reason obviously, and I can see the sense in people wanting to get him onside but for me I'd be happier seeing him run and jump well before I commit.
We know he's a talent but all the while Energumene, Jonbon and El Fabiolo are around he'll need to be very good, and who knows where Gaelic Warrior lands, Mullins unlikely to run three but he could run two and that might make it a decent renewal, is 14/1 in August value ?

 

[Irish Rugby]

….Cromwell confirms Marine National target is Champion Chase, price spread is 7-1 (Hills) shortest, 14-1 (PP/BFSB, 365, BV) biggest.

Thought for a second that 'Cromwell' was some sort of in the know tipster.

 

[Odin]

OK thanks.
Connell has always gushed over the horse, not without good reason obviously, and I can see the sense in people wanting to get him onside but for me I'd be happier seeing him run and jump well before I commit.
We know he's a talent but all the while Energumene, Jonbon and El Fabiolo are around he'll need to be very good, and who knows where Gaelic Warrior lands, Mullins unlikely to run three but he could run two and that might make it a decent renewal, is 14/1 in August value ?

The problem you have is he will be 6/1 and lower if he hoses up in an uncompetitive 2m Grade 3 chase in November. I agree with you that he's hardly value, I'd just rather take some of the 14s ew now so I've covered myself from a book perspective if (when) he inevitably places in a 6 runner Champion Chase

 

[Eggs]

Thought for a second that 'Cromwell' was some sort of in the know tipster.

….ha, ha, too much rum.

 

[Eggs]

….Willy de Houelle into a best 7-1 TH.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

I know there's all sorts of shenangans involved with these French juveniles but on the two runs of evidence available, i'm not seeing the justification for 7/1 clear fav, more so in the 2nd run but to my eyes i'd certainly need to see more evidence he isn't more towards the one paced end of the spectrum. With the disclaimer that obviously i'd be happy if i'd got on at 33/40s or whatever he was and that maybe i'm still scarred by the Mister Plod hype train last year but i'm not really getting it relative to the current price, nor the benefit of ramping horses on twitter (another matter altogether) to an audience that need to ask in comments if a French juvenile import will be aimed at the Triumph.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I know there's all sorts of shenangans involved with these French juveniles but on the two runs of evidence available, i'm not seeing the justification for 7/1 clear fav, more so in the 2nd run but to my eyes i'd certainly need to see more evidence he isn't more towards the one paced end of the spectrum. With the disclaimer that obviously i'd be happy if i'd got on at 33/40s or whatever he was and that maybe i'm still scarred by the Mister Plod hype train last year but i'm not really getting it relative to the current price, nor the benefit of ramping horses on twitter (another matter altogether) to an audience that need to ask in comments if a French juvenile import will be aimed at the Triumph.

There's only one place the hype train goes to - the poor house. Mind the gap when boarding nthego: :black_eyed:.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I know there's all sorts of shenangans involved with these French juveniles but on the two runs of evidence available, i'm not seeing the justification for 7/1 clear fav, more so in the 2nd run but to my eyes i'd certainly need to see more evidence he isn't more towards the one paced end of the spectrum. With the disclaimer that obviously i'd be happy if i'd got on at 33/40s or whatever he was and that maybe i'm still scarred by the Mister Plod hype train last year but i'm not really getting it relative to the current price, nor the benefit of ramping horses on twitter (another matter altogether) to an audience that need to ask in comments if a French juvenile import will be aimed at the Triumph.

Absolutely agree.
There is no justification imo
This was always a race that did not really need much attention till probably Dec/Jan time, well not for me anyway.
Now we get 3 year olds in single figures in August!!
Bloody madness to be getting involved imo.
Yes, social media etc we have now, but even so!!!

 

[darlojim]

I know there's all sorts of shenangans involved with these French juveniles but on the two runs of evidence available, i'm not seeing the justification for 7/1 clear fav, more so in the 2nd run but to my eyes i'd certainly need to see more evidence he isn't more towards the one paced end of the spectrum. With the disclaimer that obviously i'd be happy if i'd got on at 33/40s or whatever he was and that maybe i'm still scarred by the Mister Plod hype train last year but i'm not really getting it relative to the current price, nor the benefit of ramping horses on twitter (another matter altogether) to an audience that need to ask in comments if a French juvenile import will be aimed at the Triumph.

I'm in no way advising people to back a horse at 7/1 this far out for the Triumph. It's a case of if you aren't already on, the price is gone now unless getting him onside with roll ups etc. But I'll try put my opinion across on him anyway...

Starting with debut, his ease of win at Compiegne was advertised well with Early Mist the 2nd going on from that debut run to running Sony Bill a close 2nd again at Compiegne. Early Mist then showed significant improvement winning his 3rd start easily by 8L with Capbello Dino back in 3rd (a horse Noel George rates fairly well)

The 3rd horse behind WdH on debut was The Workaholic, he is yet to win a race but has a rating of 126 after 4 starts. It was more the manner of victory by WdH at Compiegne and the fact he was ridden with extreme confidence back in the field before making smooth headway coming into the straight. The 4th from that debut has since been exported to IRE where he is to be trained by Henry De Bromhead.

Now moving onto the Listed Prix Go Ahead at Auteuil, WdH's 2nd run..

The field was a very competitive one at that, with the likes of Nietzsche Has, Sony Bill and WdH all coming into the race unbeaten. The race went pretty smooth throughout with the slight negative being WdH being a little sticky at a couple of his hurdles. The main contenders were all there with some sort of chance coming to the 2nd last before Nietzsche Has and WdH came to the fore and quickly showed their class powering away from Sony Bill, Rooster Crowing and Mambonumberfive. The pair put 10L between themselves and the ones in behind from just before the last to the line even accounting to WdH ducking out to his left and making a bit of a hash of the last ducking on landing and also not being along the favoured standside rail. It's also worth considering Nietzsche and WdH were giving the ones in behind 4lb, 2lb and 4lb respectively.

Nietzsche Has is considered to be the best french 3yo juvenile around and the form obviously caught plenty of peoples eye with:

Sony Bill (4th) being bought for Willie @ 200k
Mambonumberfive (5th) bought for Ben Pauling @ 450k

The word is Ricci had to stump up close to 500k for Willy

When you tie in the formlines, albeit not strict science as we all know these juveniles are prepped faster/slower than others, but Willy De Houelle is without doubt the best juvenile to have been exported up to now. Of the others that have been exported, Charlus is of significant interest to me, its a literal case of he could be in the 'could be anything' category if he takes to hurdling.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I know there's all sorts of shenangans involved with these French juveniles but on the two runs of evidence available, i'm not seeing the justification for 7/1 clear fav, more so in the 2nd run but to my eyes i'd certainly need to see more evidence he isn't more towards the one paced end of the spectrum. With the disclaimer that obviously i'd be happy if i'd got on at 33/40s or whatever he was and that maybe i'm still scarred by the Mister Plod hype train last year but i'm not really getting it relative to the current price, nor the benefit of ramping horses on twitter (another matter altogether) to an audience that need to ask in comments if a French juvenile import will be aimed at the Triumph.

It's very reminiscent to a couple of years or so ago Atlantic Viking

Where the hype was that, because Cheveley Park had won the Champion Bumper with Envoi Allen, Ferny Hollow, Sir Gerhard, therefore Cheveley dont buy duds, so back their latest, best Bumper purchases, into Fav and 2nd Fav.

We've now got the Rich Ricci has won the Triumph with Vauban (Flat horse) and Lossiemouth (Juvenile Hurdler) from French purchases - so, ergo, now the
Ricci/Willie combo dont buy duds, and so back their latest, best looking picks for the Triumph ?

Maybe with Maj winning last year we should be pumping into the JP/Willie ones too?

That run of chat has meant it's been a bit of a mad few days trying not to miss out on a falling price.

This doesn't mean the horse is any better or worse than he's always been.

He's a nice horse, from those video, with a chance of being decent for Willie this coming season.

The "value" has been created for themselves, by some early into the chat, backing, or chatting him, into a price where they now have a ticket at a price that's much bigger than the - one proper bookies group - quoting, have moved him to, in a quiet market.

I'm not sure if any connections to the horse have been banging away at the price this week or its just Twitter/FJ folk.

Lord.knows what frenzy will happen next August if the horse goes and wins the Triumph.

:cower::cower::biggrin-new::emmersed:

Be a fun result......that.
I'm smiling at that thought.

"I think it, therefore it must happen"

A lot of antepost betting on young horses with little or no experience, has that to it though, and Ive always been on-board with the concept of finding them early.

Reminds me of a Blackadder episode where they set out to make Gold, but managed to make

"Pure Green" instead

It's making me look forward to the Triumph now, if only for this week on FJ :cheerful:

 

[darlojim]

Ricci/Willie combo dont buy duds, and so back their latest picks for the Triumph ?

I'm not sure thats the case here though is it Sax?

Ricci/Mullins have also Sainte Lucie, and SL hasn't moved in the market from odds big enough, so I don't think it's a case of backing 'the dream team'.

An owner purchase doesn't increase the horses' ability, but it's always a positive when Ricci is willing to fork out nearly 500k for a horse and outbid other high profile owners in the process.

Like I've said previous, anyone who watches the french juves with a keen eye (i know there's a few on here, as we've spoke regularly since April regarding them as the season in FR went on) knew that on opening with PP/BF, that 33/1 was as far wrong as could be possible, ability speaking.

We know how these markets work nowadays, so it shouldn't be a shock when there's whispers of a certain WP Mullins buying the horse, and also Rich Ricci being the owner, that the horse shortens, its a huge vote of confidence as opposed to a lesser trainer being the buyer.

Like JackieMoon33 said, that price could shorten more once OJA is out, stable tour quotes from willie and even on entry.

All that doesn't though, take away the fact, that 7/1 is absolutely criminal this time of year, but that's what FJ is about, we highlight these horses, and at that point and, each of us decide whether or not the bet is value at the time. I mentioned twice the horse, once in the yankee thread @ 16/1 and then 12/1.


***Ignore Riskabahia (4yo), bought last season but werent seen out, reg'd with WdH.

 

[Lobos]

I chose not to get involved with any Triumph horses this early after backing 7/8 last year and only making a decent profit because I took a gamble on cashing out Sir Gino before it was too late and by having a nice bet on the winner very late in the day.

The race is a bit of a lottery but FJ has been very lucky in the past with some big priced AP winners being highlighted very early.

I say hats off to Darlo for being brave enough to big up and pump Willy and hope plenty got on at big prices as I always love to see the bookies raped . It's not the easiest of things tipping a horse up as we know it goes tits up more often than not but the game would be a very boring place if people didn't shout about their fancies and when they win those people should be applauded.

Keep up the good work boys and girls !!!