2025, The Odds on Offer

[Deleted member 4957]

Are you putting her Cheltenham loss over that trip down to a bad ride?

Tough one; I don't think it was Jack's finest hour but he was fighting with the mare for the first half mile and maybe that just took enough out of her to stunt her finish.
At Aintree she changed gears up the straight and proved she had that acceleration which was missing at Cheltenham, and it's that gear change that I think makes her an Arkle horse...

 

[Odin]

Does no-one believe she’ll be am Arkle horse ?
I’m not sure there’s anything obvious in that division to scare her away, but I am of the view Ballyburn will
never be seen over 2m again….

Gordon Elliott quote regarding Firefox after Aintree last year:

"I thought Firefox ran a good race, there was no real excuse. He got the run of the race, he jumped well. He'll go chasing next season and be a proper two-mile chaser. The way he jumps a hurdle, you'd say he wants a fence. He's a good horse. It's always frustrating when you don't win but he ran a very good race so we're proud of him."

Leans towards him knowing who his Arkle horse is if they all get there safe and in form

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Gordon Elliott quote regarding Firefox after Aintree last year:

"I thought Firefox ran a good race, there was no real excuse. He got the run of the race, he jumped well. He'll go chasing next season and be a proper two-mile chaser. The way he jumps a hurdle, you'd say he wants a fence. He's a good horse. It's always frustrating when you don't win but he ran a very good race so we're proud of him."

Leans towards him knowing who his Arkle horse is if they all get there safe and in form

Yes possibly, but it's also likely the Brighterdaysahead chasing discussion hadn't been had last April.
And it's easy to knock Firefox given he repeatedly came up short last season, I'd be surprised if that one turned out to be the leading Arkle horse over BDA...

 

[Ballybeen]

If she is as good as we all expect I’d be surprised if they don’t go for the easier option in the mares chase.

 

[Lobos]

If she is as good as we all expect I’d be surprised if they don’t go for the easier option in the mares chase.

She has a lot of making up to do after her dreadful performance this year.

 

[Odin]

Yes possibly, but it's also likely the Brighterdaysahead chasing discussion hadn't been had last April.
And it's easy to knock Firefox given he repeatedly came up short last season, I'd be surprised if that one turned out to be the leading Arkle horse over BDA...

I supect you'll know more than me but I've always got the vibe their thoughts have been get to the Gold Cup ASAP. Add that to Gigginstown loving staying chases and Bective Stud having Found A Fifty in the Arkle last year and it all fits together logically as a thought process for Elliott.

As an addition to that, although I can see the argument that he came up short, I also think it's a little harsh given he was blocked off in the Supreme and then only beaten half a length at Aintree when jumping very much like a chaser, compared to that one jumping faster and slicker like a hurdler (off memory). There's plenty of reasons for them to think they can turn around the form there if reopposing. Particularly if Ballyburn doesn't go that way and with Slade Steel/Mystical Power both being bred more like hurdlers.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

If she is as good as we all expect I’d be surprised if they don’t go for the easier option in the mares chase.

If she's that good would they not set their targets higher than a 5/6 runner G2 ?

 

[Lobos]

If she's that good would they not set their targets higher than a 5/6 runner G2 ?

I'm pretty sure he meant to say he'd be surprised if they did go for the Mares Chase .

 

[Lobos]

Lets be honest with each other......the only real test she's had (at the Fez) she was beaten.
Perhaps we are missing a trick here. With Lossiemouth targeting the CH and BDH going chasing, the value bets now are clearly picking the Mares Hurdle winner .

 

[Spectre]

She'll only be 6 in March. I see no reason why they're find the need to potentially take on Ballyburn, Impaire Et Passe, and whichever of her own stablemates go there in Irish Point and Slade Steel. The point has already been made about Shattered Love not having the option of the Mares Chase too. Although that Turners was so weak she may have gone that way anyway.

She gets easier experience running against her own sex in the Mares Chase before stepping up to tackle the Gold Cup the following year. And also to answer the Arkle question, they've talked about her as a future Gold Cup horse for some time now, and the Mares Hurdle showed that two miles is far from ideal. A step up to two and half miles at Aintree showed just how much better she is already at that trip, so I don't see any way that she's run in the Arkle. Similarly I don't think they'd want to give her a tough race in the Brown Advisory.

I would say in percentage chance by race:
Mares Chase 80%
Turners 20%
Arkle 0%
Brown Advisory 0%

 

[Spectre]

Lets be honest with each other......the only real test she's had (at the Fez) she was beaten.
Perhaps we are missing a trick here. With Lossiemouth targeting the CH and BDH going chasing, the value bets now are clearly picking the Mares Hurdle winner .

I'm far from convinced Lossie will go to the Champion Hurdle. Don't forget we used to listen to that conversation at this time of the year every year with Quevega. And I'd say if Constitution Hill shows there are no lasting effects, that there's zero chance she goes to the race.

 

[Lobos]

The Mares Hurdle is over 2 1/2 miles as well Spectre but I get your point and agree . She's got it all to prove yet but has age in her side. Start low.

Edit.....silly me, you meant the Mares Novice Hurdle which is of course over the minimum. Agree nonetheless.

 

[Lobos]

I'm far from convinced Lossie will go to the Champion Hurdle. Don't forget we used to listen to that conversation at this time of the year every year with Quevega. And I'd say if Constitution Hill shows there are no lasting effects, that there's zero chance she goes to the race.

They'll certainly aim her that way but time will tell if she proves good enough. We all know Willie ain't scared of anything . They can always fall back into the Mares Hurdle in which she'd go off a 1-4 shot so the current 9/4 looks the bet of the century should she end up in the race. All very intriguing.

I'm thinking/hoping she may take on Teahupoo in the Hattons Grace so we could get our answer very early indeed. What a race that would be !

 

[Deleted member 4957]

She'll only be 6 in March. I see no reason why they're find the need to potentially take on Ballyburn, Impaire Et Passe, and whichever of her own stablemates go there in Irish Point and Slade Steel. The point has already been made about Shattered Love not having the option of the Mares Chase too. Although that Turners was so weak she may have gone that way anyway.

She gets easier experience running against her own sex in the Mares Chase before stepping up to tackle the Gold Cup the following year. And also to answer the Arkle question, they've talked about her as a future Gold Cup horse for some time now, and the Mares Hurdle showed that two miles is far from ideal. A step up to two and half miles at Aintree showed just how much better she is already at that trip, so I don't see any way that she's run in the Arkle. Similarly I don't think they'd want to give her a tough race in the Brown Advisory.

I would say in percentage chance by race:
Mares Chase 80%
Turners 20%
Arkle 0%
Brown Advisory 0%

The Gold Cup argument is a fairly compelling reason not to back her in the Arkle, but I don't buy her failing in the Mares Novice Hurdle and improving for the step up at Aintree.
A decent ground 20f Aintree race is about as easy as it gets in terms of stamina, her gear change struck me that day, that's not to say she can't get further but I was impressed by her acceleration and it told me she was a 2 miler.
I've watched the mares nov hurdle back and she was very keen, I'm now convinced that's what got her beat.

There are also a number of questions around race conditions we ought to have in the back of our mind; the Turners was mooted to be turned into a limited handicap, The NH Chase could be culled which could impact all the novice chases, and the whole novices in handicaps discussion may be coming to a head which will naturally affect every chase.

The smart bet is no bet, but gun to my head if I had to throw a fiver on which race she'd have more chance of winning I'd say Arkle...

 

[Lobos]

The Lossiemouth ( MH) and BDA (MC) Double is currently a shade under 14/1 for anyone thinking they'll end up in those races. Big return for little risk

 

[Craigy14]

I'm far from convinced Lossie will go to the Champion Hurdle. Don't forget we used to listen to that conversation at this time of the year every year with Quevega. And I'd say if Constitution Hill shows there are no lasting effects, that there's zero chance she goes to the race.

If she beats State Man then she’ll go Champion Hurdle imo Paul. That victory, should it happen, would put her bang there on ratings. Don’t think Constitution Hill will change that thought process, especially with CH having nothing to beat over here.

As someone posted on rprs CH performances were on a decline end of season before last. I hope he does, but it’ll be some doing to get back to the figures he was posting Cheltenham 23’ and pre Cheltenham that season. He does have age on his side though.

 

[Benjy23]

I fully understand the concern with Lossiemouth running in the Mares Hurdle, not the CH. And the comparisons to previous Mares with Mullins that could've probably run in the CH and ended up repeatedly in the Mares. Annie Power did run in the Stayers for RR and Mullins as a 6yo mind, so you know, some sort of precedent for them targeting a Championship Race this season. So I'm choosing to take them on face value that she'll be heading to the Champion Hurdle...

Then there's the news of Brighter Days Ahead going chasing. Of course there's even the possibility she could revert back to hurdles and certainly wouldn't be the first mare to do so. But the intention is clear that'll be a chase campaign. I've backed her for the Turners already but I wouldn't be confident she'll run there, and the Mares Chase is an obvious option. Especially if something like Ballyburn heads to the Turners looking like the second coming.

So sticking with the Plan A's of Lossiemouth going CH and BDA going chasing, that leaves a big gap for the Mares Hurdle - as Lobos pointed out. Which brings me to a very obvious conclusion of Golden Ace. I think the readily available 10/1 has to be amongst the best value out there at the moment. A previous festival winner, 4/4 over hurdles, top RPR matched on both good and soft ground, won over 2m 4f+ on the new course so stamina for old course not a real concern. Every reason to think there's more improvement to come, turning 7 and lightly raced. Pretty obvious target I'd have thought and connections the thing holding the price up. Which if the other two step aside could end up looking very big.

Not had a Cheltenham bet for a few months but I'm about to if nobody can put me off :excitement:
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[Eggs]

I fully understand the concern with Lossiemouth running in the Mares Hurdle, not the CH. And the comparisons to previous Mares with Mullins that could've probably run in the CH and ended up repeatedly in the Mares. Annie Power did run in the Stayers for RR and Mullins as a 6yo mind, so you know, some sort of precedent for them targeting a Championship Race this season. So I'm choosing to take them on face value that she'll be heading to the Champion Hurdle...

Then there's the news of Brighter Days Ahead going chasing. Of course there's even the possibility she could revert back to hurdles and certainly wouldn't be the first mare to do so. But the intention is clear that'll be a chase campaign. I've backed her for the Turners already but I wouldn't be confident she'll run there, and the Mares Chase is an obvious option. Especially if something like Ballyburn heads to the Turners looking like the second coming.

So sticking with the Plan A's of Lossiemouth going CH and BDA going chasing, that leaves a big gap for the Mares Hurdle - as Lobos pointed out. Which brings me to a very obvious conclusion of Golden Ace. I think the readily available 10/1 has to be amongst the best value out there at the moment. A previous festival winner, 4/4 over hurdles, top RPR matched on both good and soft ground, won over 2m 4f+ on the new course so stamina for old course not a real concern. Every reason to think there's more improvement to come, turning 7 and lightly raced. Pretty obvious target I'd have thought and connections the thing holding the price up. Which if the other two step aside could end up looking very big.

Not had a Cheltenham bet for a few months but I'm about to if nobody can put me off :excitement:
​​​​

….personally prefer Dysart Eno’s. Unbeaten in bumpers and over hurdles,including a 9l beating of Golden Ace at Aintree.

Also, GA wasn’t far ahead of Birdie or Bust in MNH, 33-1 for that one could be a bit of value in MH. Birdie or Bust finished ahead of Jade de Grugy who’s a best 5-1 for that race.

 

[The Giant Bolster]

One factor I've been considering is likely first runs. The Hatton Grace may be the race where Lossiemouth makes her debut. She will likely face Teahupoo. How would you price that race up?

It's a risk but I'd probably side with Teahupoo, partly because Mullins can start slow. If Lossiemouth lost, she would get pushed out and that's a reason I'm not in a rush to back her or put her in multiples yet. Of course, I could very well be wrong and she wins and goes short. But I don't think she can get much shorter if Constitution Hill and State Man remains healthy.

 

[Lobos]

One factor I've been considering is likely first runs. The Hatton Grace may be the race where Lossiemouth makes her debut. She will likely face Teahupoo. How would you price that race up?

It's a risk but I'd probably side with Teahupoo, partly because Mullins can start slow. If Lossiemouth lost, she would get pushed out and that's a reason I'm not in a rush to back her or put her in multiples yet. Of course, I could very well be wrong and she wins and goes short. But I don't think she can get much shorter if Constitution Hill and State Man remains healthy.

I believe they might throw her up against Teahupoo in the HG as well. If they did then I'd be expecting her to beat him. If she got beat then I'm not sure they'd continue with the CH route and instead go back to the Mares Hurdle. Willie does have a few others he can send to the race though so it might not happen.