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2025, The Odds on Offer

What’s the consensus here are people backing much ante post in the novice department given the potential race condition changes?

Personally have stayed well off it since the talk started. If the top tier horses only have a 2M and 3M Nov Chase option (is the same happening over hurdles?) then I’d find it very hard to take a price now on fields which are going to be more competitive then we are used to of late. The BANC could look stacked next year with possibly Ballyburn at the head of the market (I think this is the likely route he's a GC horse in the making).


Haven’t thought out the implications much but am sure there is angle into these divisions while it’s up in the air.

Maybe I’ve missed the beat and these changes are further down the line then ‘25?
 
HesTheOne said:
What’s the consensus here are people backing much ante post in the novice department given the potential race condition changes?

Personally have stayed well off it since the talk started. If the top tier horses only have a 2M and 3M Nov Chase option (is the same happening over hurdles?) then I’d find it very hard to take a price now on fields which are going to be more competitive then we are used to of late. The BANC could look stacked next year with possibly Ballyburn at the head of the market (I think this is the likely route he's a GC horse in the making).


Haven’t thought out the implications much but am sure there is angle into these divisions while it’s up in the air.

Maybe I’ve missed the beat and these changes are further down the line then ‘25?
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I would be hoping any changes would be for the year after. I would be surprised if races were changed for next years festival. Maybe the NHC and XC will be amended. I have Ballyburn down as a cert for the Turners but the price is nothing at this stage (about 7/2) but the cynic in me wouldn't put it past the BHA to change races and have got Ballyburn onside for the BANC this week at 9/1 just in case. Can top up closer to the time if that is the route he takes. I am hoping the turners stays because i have a nice bet on Majborough for the BANC. I really worry about that head carriage over fences though for Ballyburn. I know he won a point but there is a huge question mark for me over fences. Mirazur West is one i expect to come on a bundle for a fence. He is in my Arkle notebook but no backed yet. I have Firefox in at 12's and Jeriko at 25's. To be honest i have only backed about 10 for next year but already look in a decent position. They include the aforementioned Firefox 12/1 (Arkle), Mystical Power 33/1 (CH) Jonbon 12/1 (Ryanair) Impaire Et Passe 20/1 (Turners) Bravemansgame 25/1 (Ryanair) Fastorslow 25/1 (GC) But saying all of that, I thought i was on a good one today in William Munny for the Supreme but i am very confident that horse will come again, it was beaten today by a horse who clearly isn't a novice.Plenty of researching and form checking to be done over the summer. There are a couple of silly ones i couldn't let go un-backed, Iroko 66/1 (Ryanair) and Stay Away Fay 80/1 (GC)
 
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William Munny got boxed in when the race really heated up today, had to pull out wide and was then sandwiched before running on. He wouldn't have troubled the front two but with a clear run would have finished a lot closer. He beat the first two home in the Cheltenham Bumper so it was a decent run nonetheless in a hot contest. Remains to be seen whether he improves again for a hurdle.
 
Lobos said:
William Munny got boxed in when the race really heated up today, had to pull out wide and was then sandwiched before running on. He wouldn't have troubled the front two but with a clear run would have finished a lot closer. He beat the first two home in the Cheltenham Bumper so it was a decent run nonetheless in a hot contest. Remains to be seen whether he improves again for a hurdle.
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I cashed all my bets on him out for level stakes, I'm happy to reback when I see an entry over hurdles probably though.
 
Lobos said:
William Munny got boxed in when the race really heated up today, had to pull out wide and was then sandwiched before running on. He wouldn't have troubled the front two but with a clear run would have finished a lot closer. He beat the first two home in the Cheltenham Bumper so it was a decent run nonetheless in a hot contest. Remains to be seen whether he improves again for a hurdle.
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Completely agree with this. The front 2 looked to really enjoy the ground too. I’d say Munny will be one of the better 2-milers next year.

Romeo was given a poor ride too and finished way back. And I’ve no idea what to make of JDV. Too bad to be true?

Sounds Victorious is firmly in the notebook for the Bartlett.
 
I don't think either Romeo or jasmin de Vauxhall (was autocorrect but I like it so am leaving it haha) ran their races

Jasmin was way too keen
And Romeo was never travelling
 
Zachx02 said:
I cashed all my bets on him out for level stakes, I'm happy to reback when I see an entry over hurdles probably though.
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Personally I just don't think it's likely Barry connell is going to win two novice hurdles so close together

But maybe I'm being a trainer snob (which i am massively and happy to admit it)
 
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Exar Essay said:
Completely agree with this. The front 2 looked to really enjoy the ground too. I’d say Munny will be one of the better 2-milers next year.

Romeo was given a poor ride too and finished way back. And I’ve no idea what to make of JDV. Too bad to be true?

Sounds Victorious is firmly in the notebook for the Bartlett.
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Agree with Sound Victorious. He looks a proper slogger and I’d likely give Argento Boy a chance over a trip and hurdles too.
 
Good old garlic bread

Consistently does the opposite of what you expect
 
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….Hills the biggest at 3-1 Stayers for Teahupoo.
 
7/1 about El Fabiolo is, in my opinion, madness. Don’t understand why PP pushed him out after Gaelic’s run. If anything, it improved his chances of being Willie’s no.1 for the race.
 
Least they’ll push Port Joulain now after that :biggrin-new:

That ground is getting close to being a joke imo.

Edit - PP go 66/1 crikey!
 
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Zachx02 said:
Next years novice hurdles will be French breds, these bumper horses are absolute gash
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I don’t take such a dim view of the bumpers but I do think Salvator Mundi and Supersundae look good bets at their prices right now.

Kopek Des Bordes who ticks both boxes also looks good.

Otherwise, I had a list of last summer’s 3yo purchases and none on my list have been put aside. KDB was the last one out. So unless I’ve missed one, which is perfectly likely, they’ll have to be purchased this Spring/Summer. And with the French having said they’d like to keep more of their own, I do wonder if we’ve seen the main contenders already.
 
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Exar Essay said:
7/1 about El Fabiolo is, in my opinion, madness. Don’t understand why PP pushed him out after Gaelic’s run. If anything, it improved his chances of being Willie’s no.1 for the race.
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Can't imagine there will be many takers even at that price after his last two runs. Far too many Q marks now. Would want to see what he does on his next run before getting involved.
 
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