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2025 Stayers Hurdle

Benjy23 said:
At the risk of sounding like a broken record with this shit... 20/1 NRNB is probably a fair each way play. Sounds like he either impressed on trials day and probably goes into the race as 2F, or he disappoints trials day and you get your money back. I'm going to do it tomorrow anyway :welcoming:
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I’d say that sounds like a very fair price for anyone wanting to get involved now, especially if his last run proves excusable.
 
Benjy23 said:
At the risk of sounding like a broken record with this shit... 20/1 NRNB is probably a fair each way play. Sounds like he either impressed on trials day and probably goes into the race as 2F, or he disappoints trials day and you get your money back. I'm going to do it tomorrow anyway :welcoming:
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Is each way the right play ?
Is there not an argument for win only if there are questions marks around fitness/participation ?
 
Istabraq said:
Is each way the right play ?
Is there not an argument for win only if there are questions marks around fitness/participation ?
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As a NRNB against a very strong favourite I'd say so in this case. And I've a usual preference for win only to be honest
 
20/1 NRNB sounds inviting but I'd be saving him for Aintree myself,all his form comes on flat tracks,give him a hill or undulation and it goes awry for him.
 
Benjy23 said:
As a NRNB against a very strong favourite I'd say so in this case. And I've a usual preference for win only to be honest
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Fair enough.
Just out of interest when do the 'without fav' markets come out and would they be NRNB too ?
I can seem myself getting interested in backing him in the w/o market for multi's if vibes are positive...
 
Benjy23 said:
At the risk of sounding like a broken record with this shit... 20/1 NRNB is probably a fair each way play. Sounds like he either impressed on trials day and probably goes into the race as 2F, or he disappoints trials day and you get your money back. I'm going to do it tomorrow anyway :welcoming:
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Yep totally agree
No doubt he’s better than last run, he’s proved that. So obviously he weren’t right.
The 20/1 nrmb is worth a punt to find out if he’s back to his best form.
 
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Hiddenvalley Lake

Hasn't had many Hurdles runs at all (7 runs)

Missed a wedge of time, and pretty unexposed.

One run in a Chase.

Henry mentioned him going back chasing in all his October Stable Tours.

Then a couple of months later, up he pops in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle and all but wins it, finishing off the race well, and looking a real stayer

2 years ago, he leapt to the head of the Albert Bartlett market with a blazing finish to win a Grade 3 NovH over 3M, but didnt go on at that time.

Heard some mention that 365 were/are? - doing a 25% price boost on the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup.

Boosting HVL to 25/1 would make sense from the way he ran at Ascot last month, if anyone has a 365 account and that Boost is still there.

I think he could beat Crambo, and have more improvement to come, from the way that race was run, and The Wallpark (particularly on Soft/Heavy) could too.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Hiddenvalley Lake

Hasn't had many Hurdles runs at all (7 runs)

Missed a wedge of time, and pretty unexposed.

One run in a Chase.

Henry mentioned him going back chasing in all his October Stable Tours.

Then a couple of months later, up he pops in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle and all but wins it, finishing off the race well, and looking a real stayer

2 years ago, he leapt to the head of the Albert Bartlett market with a blazing finish to win a Grade 3 NovH over 3M, but didnt go on at that time.

Heard some mention that 365 were/are? - doing a 25% price boost on the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup.

Boosting HVL to 25/1 would make sense from the way he ran at Ascot last month, if anyone has a 365 account and that Boost is still there.

I think he could beat Crambo, and have more improvement to come, from the way that race was run, and The Wallpark (particularly on Soft/Heavy) could too.
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8 runs under rules at 8 years of age, as you say missed a wedge of time, I wouldn't know the reasons why but it's hard to think they're positive.

Beaten Last 3 times over 3miles, recording the exact rpr last twice, isn't screaming unexposed or potential improver to me.

Only appearance at Cheltenham, beaten 45lengths in the albert bartlett..

same ownership as the reigning champion and hot favourite...

is this nrnb you're suggesting as this appears a very risky shout ante post for you sax ....
 
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There's a good reason I ask the above, and maybe that sax has ignored lucky place and opted to put up hiddenvalley lake is a little surprising, probably because I hold his opinion in such high regard.

Lucky place only started racing last season, had a very good first season, solid if not great.
4th in the coral cup as a novice is no easy feat, if he ran in the Ballymore he'd have finished 2nd, of that I have no doubts, maybe that was a good thing because he was a little under the radar.

I first thought of him for the stayers the day he lost to Gidleigh park, as I knew Gidleigh was a chaser, I didn't think lucky was.
I expected lucky to stay hurdling but it looked 50/50 in the stable tours, maybe even more leaning towards chasing. But he was one of nickys 2 to watch in the rp stable tour, the other was jango baie.

He looks like he'll get 3 miles, his dam has produced winners up to 2m 7 1/2f , damsire is also damsire to screaming colours, a midland national winner and placed, his cousin.
He is unexposed and improving.
Gone from 140 to 153 or in 2 races this season.
yet to tackle 3 miles, i know this can go the other way but thats the key thing it wont, and if it does we find out in the cleeve and no harm done, he wont go stayers, thats why 10/1 nrnb for lucky place is a much better proposition than hiddenvallley lake at 12/1 nrnb
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Hiddenvalley Lake

Hasn't had many Hurdles runs at all (7 runs)

Missed a wedge of time, and pretty unexposed.

One run in a Chase.

Henry mentioned him going back chasing in all his October Stable Tours.

Then a couple of months later, up he pops in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle and all but wins it, finishing off the race well, and looking a real stayer

2 years ago, he leapt to the head of the Albert Bartlett market with a blazing finish to win a Grade 3 NovH over 3M, but didnt go on at that time.

Heard some mention that 365 were/are? - doing a 25% price boost on the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup.

Boosting HVL to 25/1 would make sense from the way he ran at Ascot last month, if anyone has a 365 account and that Boost is still there.

I think he could beat Crambo, and have more improvement to come, from the way that race was run, and The Wallpark (particularly on Soft/Heavy) could too.
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Mentioned him previous page Sax, I think he has improvement in him and it was a decent seasonal reappearance.

As Aaron says the AB run was a little disappointing but can always forgive a horse one run at HQ.
 
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AaronLad said:
8 runs under rules at 8 years of age, as you say missed a wedge of time, I wouldn't know the reasons why but it's hard to think they're positive.

Beaten Last 3 times over 3miles, recording the exact rpr last twice, isn't screaming unexposed or potential improver to me.

Only appearance at Cheltenham, beaten 45lengths in the albert bartlett..

same ownership as the reigning champion and hot favourite...

is this nrnb you're suggesting as this appears a very risky shout ante post for you sax ....
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He only missed half of last season after a heavy fall novice chasing mate.

4 novice hurdle runs at 5 going 6.

1 novice chase run with heavy fall and then didn’t go too hard on him with 2 open hurdle runs at 6 going 7 of age (last season).

Remember he has only just turned 8 at the start of the year same as all horses of course.
 
Hiddenvalley Lake would be better in a Coral Cup, IMO.

That Long Walk was terrible, IMO. The proximity of both Beauport & Kateira, would have me worried about the form, especially with the favourite being a complete no show due to breathing issues.
 
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Craigy14 said:
He only missed half of last season after a heavy fall novice chasing mate.

4 novice hurdle runs at 5 going 6.

1 novice chase run with heavy fall and then didn’t go too hard on him with 2 open hurdle runs at 6 going 7 of age (last season).

Remember he has only just turned 8 at the start of the year same as all horses of course.
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So chasing didn't work out, he was injured, been beaten by strong leader and crambo but he's a bet to beat teahupoo?

And not all horses turned 8 :glee:
 
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BuckingThe Trend said:
I'm with Saxon Warrior. I like him for at least a Place at 25/1. You can take a horse to water Sax but you can't make them drink. :angel:
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In fairness it's completely reasonable to have opposing opinions on a forum, especially when a case is made as to why, like AaronLad has done :encouragement:
 
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AaronLad said:
8 runs under rules at 8 years of age, as you say missed a wedge of time, I wouldn't know the reasons why but it's hard to think they're positive.

Beaten Last 3 times over 3miles, recording the exact rpr last twice, isn't screaming unexposed or potential improver to me.

Only appearance at Cheltenham, beaten 45lengths in the albert bartlett..

same ownership as the reigning champion and hot favourite...

is this nrnb you're suggesting as this appears a very risky shout ante post for you sax ....
Click to expand...

No interest at NRNB prices.

At this stage it's full fat big prices on a horse like HVL or nothing at all.

I had Teahupoo covered a while back and nothing else.

Then added The Wallpark at 40s when talk moved from Pertemps to Long Walk.

He really showed up late on in the LW with a staying on late finish on his 1st start in a Graded race, which impressed me.

Watched the race back and was taken with Hidden Valley Lake too, at BFX price at the time of 30+ or the 25s boosted (for those that can boost/I can't), it's the sort of price that interests me vs a strong fav - if the ground was soft.

Three is plenty for now

All proven now in a Grade 1 over 3M.

Hendos horse is improving, for sure, over midtrips, a.t.m.

Hes had 7 Hurdles runs, so similar chance to prove himself to date, as Hidden Valley Lake and a shorter price for the Stayers.

The Relkeel hasnt been chock full of Stayers Hurdle horses in recent times, so its not usually a go-to place for me to find one.

The step up to 3M will be key, next time out.

If after decs, I like him to win his first run over 3M, then easy for me to back him in that race, and take a view on the Stayers with winnings in my hand, if he wins.
That's the view I'd take on him.

Most of my antepost picks are generally big priced horses, so The Wallpark and HVL fit the bill as normal picks for me, over trip, Grade and ability.

The other type of antepost picks I make, are shorties, like Teahupoo, in rollups.

Lucky to have him early enough that way.

Not for a big payday - 15pts if he won.

So backing any big priced horses always tilts the Payouts higher on those, than I have if the Fav wins.

So if Im fortunate and end up with all 3 then I will be cheering on the bigger priced ones to win, but happy enough if the Fav wins.

Plenty of time to add or lose choices for any race just yet, post-DRF I would have much more idea of what I've got left, including a few more in the bin of wont run/wont win pre-Festival losers - no doubt.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
No interest at NRNB prices.

At this stage it's full fat big prices on a horse like HVL or nothing at all.

I had Teahupoo covered a while back and nothing else.

Then added The Wallpark at 40s when talk moved from Pertemps to Long Walk.

He really showed up late on in the LW with a staying on late finish on his 1st start in a Graded race, which impressed me.

Watched the race back and was taken with Hidden Valley Lake too, at BFX price at the time of 30+ or the 25s boosted (for those that can boost/I can't), it's the sort of price that interests me vs a strong fav - if the ground was soft.

Three is plenty for now

All proven now in a Grade 1 over 3M.

Hendos horse is improving, for sure, over midtrips, a.t.m.

Hes had 7 Hurdles runs, so similar chance to prove himself to date, as Hidden Valley Lake and a shorter price for the Stayers.

The Relkeel hasnt been chock full of Stayers Hurdle horses in recent times, so its not usually a go-to place for me to find one.

The step up to 3M will be key, next time out.

If after decs, I like him to win his first run over 3M, then easy for me to back him in that race, and take a view on the Stayers with winnings in my hand, if he wins.
That's the view I'd take on him.

Most of my antepost picks are generally big priced horses, so The Wallpark and HVL fit the bill as normal picks for me, over trip, Grade and ability.

The other type of antepost picks I make, are shorties, like Teahupoo, in rollups.

Lucky to have him early enough that way.

Not for a big payday - 15pts if he won.

So backing any big priced horses always tilts the Payouts higher on those, than I have if the Fav wins.

So if Im fortunate and end up with all 3 then I will be cheering on the bigger priced ones to win, but happy enough if the Fav wins.

Plenty of time to add or lose choices for any race just yet, post-DRF I would have much more idea of what I've got left, including a few more in the bin of wont run/wont win pre-Festival losers - no doubt.
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Thanks for the detailed reply sax.

And of course he can't be ruled out, I just thought he's a little more exposed than what you think and maybe he's reached his peak, but time will tell.
 
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