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2025 Mares Hurdle

Irish Rugby said:
This one seems purely driven by Ricci's comments earlier this week at a preview. I've seen or heard nothing actually from the yard save for Willie's Sporting Life stable tour which expressed a preference for the Champion Hurdle. Sounds like it's punters getting sucked in wherever they perceive there to be 'value'.
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And we know willie decides where they go not ricci
 
Feel free to take this with a pinch of salt - I'm sure others have pieces of the puzzle I don't!

I think that at the moment the money that money that we see on the exchanges is from a very small pool of liquidity providers [v likely just betfair themselves] that have bots built with the role of making the markets appear relatively tight [this is probably some function of total traded to date] to tempt some outside money in [for small amounts]. I would imagine that they don't have an opinion of the target price themselves but instead react to market signals [i.e. money coming in from people listening at previews] and drive the prices in the direction those signals point to. Because of this a small amount of info / money can lead to a large price movement unless there is a corresponding stopping force [which, based on this forum where nobody put their head above the parapet, didn't seem to manifest in Lossie's case].

Now it's possibly / probably / definitely coincidence, but right before the latest movement:
- I put money up to back at 17 [because I just felt the price was wrong and have a good position in the mares]
- got partially matched
- The back priced dropped 2 points immediately
- I didn't pay it any attention until i saw the updates here about 20 minutes later.

Now if somebody is tracking the matched amounts they could easily disprove this, but my hypothesis is that a small bit of 'new info' into the system triggered a rebalance of prices automatically as opposed to minds being changed etc etc. This would also satisfy whats being seen with KDM
 
fwiw I also laid out the matched stake at 10.5 to see what would happen
 
Brilliant. Thanks Thorne. All systems go for the Champion then.
 
Prices for both races have appeared to revert back to the pre giddiness of activity this morning. Would appear Mares is still a goer.
 
Kargese a massive drifter today - could be a sign Lossie does go here
 
The initial movement with her being backed in for the mares only started off the back of ricci talking on the preview. People who saw it then started backing her for the mares. You'd think if it was decided she was going mares, then those involved with the horse would have been piling on at the 4.0 or 5.0 etc that was available earlier that day only hours before the preview?

The drift on her for the mares and shortening for the champion this morning was not on the back of any new info available to the public, it just happened at a random time. That might be significant, and may have been caused more by those in the know, compared to the movement the other night. Be mildly interesting to see if thats the case.
 
riccirich said:
The initial movement with her being backed in for the mares only started off the back of ricci talking on the preview. People who saw it then started backing her for the mares. You'd think if it was decided she was going mares, then those involved with the horse would have been piling on at the 4.0 or 5.0 etc that was available earlier that day only hours before the preview?

The drift on her for the mares and shortening for the champion this morning was not on the back of any new info available to the public, it just happened at a random time. That might be significant, and may have been caused more by those in the know, compared to the movement the other night. Be mildly interesting to see if thats the case.
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I'd say no one knows for sure yet, as if Lossie was still to be going CH and people 'in the know' knew that, then the 5.7 JDG would be getting walloped all the way down constantly
 
darlojim said:
I'd say no one knows for sure yet, as if Lossie was still to be going CH and people 'in the know' knew that, then the 5.7 JDG would be getting walloped all the way down constantly
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Possibly. I'm only guessing, but if people did know she wasnt going here, maybe they'd be much more interested in just laying lossie for as much as they could for "free money", rather than backing jade at 5.7 and then her still having to go and win.
 
riccirich said:
Possibly. I'm only guessing, but if people did know she wasnt going here, maybe they'd be much more interested in just laying lossie for as much as they could for "free money", rather than backing jade at 5.7 and then her still having to go and win.
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But then if that was the case, Lossies' lay side would be emptied constant, theres a good few hundred quid there that would be 'free' if they knew.
 
darlojim said:
But then if that was the case, Lossies' lay side would be emptied constant, theres a good few hundred quid there that would be 'free' if they knew.
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That's true. I just noticed when I checked a few times this morning there were people laying her for fairly big amounts at around 3-3.5. But then again could just be people taking part in silly season who backed her at bigger a couple days ago and now laying off. I said I wouldn't waste my time talking about it yet here I am again :upset::applouse:
 
riccirich said:
That's true. I just noticed when I checked a few times this morning there were people laying her for fairly big amounts at around 3-3.5. But then again could just be people taking part in silly season who backed her at bigger a couple days ago and now laying off. I said I wouldn't waste my time talking about it yet here I am again :upset::applouse:
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:excitement: Not long to find out now mate!
 
darlojim said:
I'd say no one knows for sure yet, as if Lossie was still to be going CH and people 'in the know' knew that, then the 5.7 JDG would be getting walloped all the way down constantly
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They've already had their fair share of her at bigger than that.
 
Anyone who fancies Joyeuse to run a big race in this must surely have to back Take No Chances as well. They finished upsides each other when 2nd and 3rd behind Wodhooh. Take No Chances was giving Joyeuse no less than 1stone 4lbs !!
 
Getting very close to final decs and Lossiemouth has once again attracted support for this race on the exchanges, last matched at EVS, all the while drifting again for the Champion Hurdle.

They won't be up discussing it at this time of night. I'm going with decision made, unfortunately.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Getting very close to final decs and Lossiemouth has once again attracted support for this race on the exchanges, last matched at EVS, all the while drifting again for the Champion Hurdle.

They won't be up discussing it at this time of night. I'm going with decision made, unfortunately.
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big figures waiting on the back side, as a Mares backer, don't like that myself.
 
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