2024 Ryanair Chase

[Lobos]

That said, I'd be very keen on L'Homme Presse if he came for this, but they're probably rightly trying for the big one I'd say

Yep. I think the Ryanair will be a very small field this year. Need to get horses on board who are definitely targeting the race. That's half the battle.

 

[Birds Nest]

Lucinda russell has mentioned the ryanair is an option for Ahoy senor too. 20s nrnb

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Few thoughts on potential winners & value

Need to run RPR of 170ish minimum to win a Ryanair....can get away with just below in a bad year like Envoi did with 167 last year

Looking at key runners best performances (this year for some on way down)....

Banbridge 169
Stage Star 171
Envoi 167 (has repeated it this year)
Edwardstone 171 (167 this year, but does he stay?)
Protektorat 172 (169 this year)
Ahoy 174 (nothing this year)
Pic D 169 (prob won't go)

Janidl 168 (163 this season)
Hitman 164
Fugitif 162 (improving still >)
Appr 160
Ash Tree Meadow 157 (improving)
Classic 156 (young, could improve)
Fil D 153 (young)
Jungle 152 (unexposed)

I think the winner prob comes from the top bunch and very likely the top two......but def appears value in Protektorat ew NRNB.....and if looking for a long ones maybe Classic Getaway, Ash Tree Meadow, Fugitif & Janidl are bit over-looked

I have backed Appr It at start of season and have the long prices many of us do, but hard to see a case for him now

My view is Fil For has too much to find for a 6-year old and is a bit over-tipped

 

[Lobos]

Fugitif cut to as low as 12/1 following Allaho news. PP sleeping and left him at 33/1. Runs Saturday v Jonbon as prep. Ryanair the target. Loves Cheltenham.

 

[AaronLad]

I've been quite keen on ash tree meadow for the Ryanair for a while now.
with allaho out is he more likely to come here? Possibly, Gordon may view it as an easier race to win now.
He's been pretty open that he'll try conflated over the x country at the festival, surely he's not pinning his hopes on fil dor for this race.
I think he knows he has a contender in ATM.
So why do I think he can win? Well he's certainly impressed me in his last 2 chases, to the eye his jumping has improved, he has got to the front and nothing has passed him his last 2 runs.

Out of the previous 9 winners of the Galway plate from 2014-2022, 5 didn't compete at Cheltenham the following march, 4 did however.
Taking a look at those 4, in 2014 road to riches won the Galway plate off a Mark of 149, he ran in the 2015 gold cup with an 167OR, finishing 3rd.
In 2015 shanahans turn won the plate off 142, unplaced in the 2016 Ultima off 153OR
in 2017 balko de flos won the plate off 146, he won the 2018 RYANAIR with an 166OR
​​​​​in 2022 hewick won the plate off 155, he fell in the good cup with place prospects with a 170OR

So it would appear the plate isn't a bad Cheltenham trial when they run at the festival, the 3 that ran in graded races all performed with great credit having won the plate off much lower ratings. 2 of the 3 were the same age as ATM, while the other balko de flos was a year younger.

He's still there @50/1 but 25/1 nrnb at 365 looks a good bit of value considering plate winners record in graded races the following march.
I'm on at 66/1, but have now also taken the 25/1 nrnb for a decent stake.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Yeah, he's not a bad shout but the likes of Classic Getaway, EDG............. Appreciate It again ??????

Edg was not a tip. I mentioned it as a pace angle only as people were discussing who might lay up with stage star Gary has talked about stepping him up in trip.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've been quite keen on ash tree meadow for the Ryanair for a while now.
with allaho out is he more likely to come here? Possibly, Gordon may view it as an easier race to win now.
He's been pretty open that he'll try conflated over the x country at the festival, surely he's not pinning his hopes on fil dor for this race.
I think he knows he has a contender in ATM.
So why do I think he can win? Well he's certainly impressed me in his last 2 chases, to the eye his jumping has improved, he has got to the front and nothing has passed him his last 2 runs.

Out of the previous 9 winners of the Galway plate from 2014-2022, 5 didn't compete at Cheltenham the following march, 4 did however.
Taking a look at those 4, in 2014 road to riches won the Galway plate off a Mark of 149, he ran in the 2015 gold cup with an 167OR, finishing 3rd.
In 2015 shanahans turn won the plate off 142, unplaced in the 2016 Ultima off 153OR
in 2017 balko de flos won the plate off 146, he won the 2018 RYANAIR with an 166OR
​​​​​in 2022 hewick won the plate off 155, he fell in the good cup with place prospects with a 170OR

So it would appear the plate isn't a bad Cheltenham trial when they run at the festival, the 3 that ran in graded races all performed with great credit having won the plate off much lower ratings. 2 of the 3 were the same age as ATM, while the other balko de flos was a year younger.

He's still there @50/1 but 25/1 nrnb at 365 looks a good bit of value considering plate winners record in graded races the following march.
I'm on at 66/1, but have now also taken the 25/1 nrnb for a decent stake.

Not sure if you can get it (I can't) but he's 40/1 NRNB with Sky.

They had him at 50s yesterday and have cut him slightly but still well over priced if he ran.

 

[Quevega]

The O’Learys will surpass everything thing they’ve ever done before if they run conflated against delta work in the cross country.
If you were starving to death they’d cut their own nose off in front of you and then eat it themselves.

 

[Black Dog]

Not sure if you can get it (I can't) but he's 40/1 NRNB with Sky.

They had him at 50s yesterday and have cut him slightly but still well over priced if he ran.

He's in to 20's now.

 

[Craigy14]

Yeah, he's not a bad shout but the likes of Classic Getaway, EDG............. Appreciate It again ??????

I agree about Appreciate It and Editeur Du Gite but Classic Getaway imo doesn’t deserve to be shot down just yet.

He’s only had 4 chase runs winning 2 of them so could have plenty of improvement in him. Not sure you could be so dismissive of him and so positive about Fugitif?

9 year old who’s 4/12 in chases. I agree he has the course from which is always a plus, but he looks a horse to me that has shot up the ratings for winning and running well in these big handicaps. His only try in Graded company was as a novice and beaten out of sight.

Tomorrow over a trip too short but if he’s hammered there does that really help his chances come march?

 

[Lobos]

The O’Learys will surpass everything thing they’ve ever done before if they run conflated against delta work in the cross country.
If you were starving to death they’d cut their own nose off in front of you and then eat it themselves.

They'll pull Delta out I expect

 

[Rooster Booster]

I agree about Appreciate It and Editeur Du Gite but Classic Getaway imo doesn’t deserve to be shot down just yet.

He’s only had 4 chase runs winning 2 of them so could have plenty of improvement in him. Not sure you could be so dismissive of him and so positive about Fugitif?

9 year old who’s 4/12 in chases. I agree he has the course from which is always a plus, but he looks a horse to me that has shot up the ratings for winning and running well in these big handicaps. His only try in Graded company was as a novice and beaten out of sight.

Tomorrow over a trip too short but if he’s hammered there does that really help his chances come march?

Okay why is anybody referencing EDG?

 

[Stormez]

They'll pull Delta out I expect

Why would they do that?

They’d leave him in the XC to defend his title & send Conflated to the Ryanair if they split them up at all.

 

[Lobos]

I agree about Appreciate It and Editeur Du Gite but Classic Getaway imo doesn’t deserve to be shot down just yet.

He’s only had 4 chase runs winning 2 of them so could have plenty of improvement in him. Not sure you could be so dismissive of him and so positive about Fugitif?

9 year old who’s 4/12 in chases. I agree he has the course from which is always a plus, but he looks a horse to me that has shot up the ratings for winning and running well in these big handicaps. His only try in Graded company was as a novice and beaten out of sight.

Tomorrow over a trip too short but if he’s hammered there does that really help his chances come march?

Fugitif is running in the Clarence House as a prep against carrying top weight in the Handicap. Right decision this close. He'll just have a run around tomorrow and pick up some nice prize money. Job done. The main thing is he's being aimed at the Ryanair and is a specialist over that distance. He's not dropping down, he's not stepping up, hes not being considered for any other races, he's not ground dependant, hes not skipping the festival all together and it's not an after thought. He needs to improve a few pounds and others to under perform a few pounds but he'll at least be there (bar injury) in the final field of 6/7 with a chance. Big price (33's) small stake, little risk, but of fun.

 

[Craigy14]

Fugitif is running in the Clarence House as a prep against carrying top weight in the Handicap. Right decision this close. He'll just have a run around tomorrow and pick up some nice prize money. Job done. The main thing is he's being aimed at the Ryanair and is a specialist over that distance. He's not dropping down, he's not stepping up, hes not being considered for any other races, he's not ground dependant, hes not skipping the festival all together and it's not an after thought. He needs to improve a few pounds and others to under perform a few pounds but he'll at least be there (bar injury) in the final field of 6/7 with a chance. Big price (33's) small stake, little risk, but of fun.

I get all that but a couple posts before you’ve said the below:

”Don't understand why after the loss of Allaho everyone suddenly come up with horses that have hardly been mentioned on here before as having any chance of placing let alone winning the race ???

Surely we should be concentrating on the horses left at the head of the market that 1) will definitely be coming to the race and 2) have a real chance of winning the race. We should not be chucking points away on rags should we ??​“

I would put fugitif in the bracket of not even placing or winning the race imo. You’ve been so dismissive of others who have maybe disappointed somewhat but this lad has never ran in a graded race in open company and imo has an inflated rating because of the handicaps he’s been running in. As much as I don’t like Appreciate It for the race I’d take him over Fugitif every day of the week and the main reason for doing so is WPM.

 

[Craigy14]

Okay why is anybody referencing EDG?

I responded to Lobos who brought him up responding to you.

I know you haven’t given a view on him running or even winning but possibly a pace angle if he did turn up.

 

[Rooster Booster]

I responded to Lobos who brought him up responding to you.

I know you haven’t given a view on him running or even winning but possibly a pace angle if he did turn up.

Okay cool I thought I was going insane. (Well more insane) :biggrin-new:

 

[Lobos]

The thing is Craigy I was discussing Fugitif for the race prior to any news re Allaho. He is no after thought on my behalf. He's a 33/1 but he'll be running in the race which is a mahoosive plus.

 

[Ice]

The thing is Craigy I was discussing Fugitif for the race prior to any news re Allaho. He is no after thought on my behalf. He's a 33/1 but he'll be running in the race which is a mahoosive plus.

He's got sixteen lengths to make up on stage star from the paddy power, can you see him closing that gap enough to make him competitive in this ?

 

[Lobos]

He's got sixteen lengths to make up on stage star from the paddy power, can you see him closing that gap enough to make him competitive in this ?

Probably not, hopefully not ! Enough about Fugitif.