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2024 Novice Chasers

ComplyOrDie said:
That's interesting, as a few were saying he wasn't even back in the yard yet. Some one has got it wrong, if he's getting entries.
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It would be really odd, bar a setback, if he returned late, Twisters love targeting the big Oct Chepstow and the first Cheltenham meeting….
 
ComplyOrDie said:
That's interesting, as a few were saying he wasn't even back in the yard yet. Some one has got it wrong, if he's getting entries.
Click to expand...

I assume NTD hasn't updated the BHA so his status hasn't changed but he is definitely entered.
24011 / 3.15pm / At The Races App Form Study Novices' Chase (Class 3) (GBB Race)

1m 7f 214y / 4YO+ / ?12,000 Open for entries

Stabling capacity: 101  Maximum races: 8
Going: Soft

7
Entries
0
Seq
13
FSL
14
SF/MF
  • Enter by 12:00
Horse / Rider
Age / Sex
Rating
Trainer / Owner
  1. Anyharminasking (IRE)
6 G -- Jonjo O'Neill Mrs Gay Smith
  1. Arclight
Nico de Boinville 4 F -- Nicky Henderson Fortnum Racing
  1. Bubble Dubi (FR)
Ciaran Gethings 6 G -- Stuart Edmunds The Garratt Family
  1. Chasing Fire
Sean Bowen 6 G -- Olly Murphy Mrs Diana L. Whateley
  1. I Like To Move It
Sam Twiston-Davies 6 G -- Nigel Twiston-Davies Anne-Marie & Jamie Shepperd
  1. Pembroke
Harry Skelton 6 G -- Dan Skelton Jon and Julia Aisbitt
  1. Rare Edition (IRE)
6 G -- Charlie Longsdon Pay The Bill Syndicate​
 
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RoadToCheltenham said:
I assume NTD hasn't updated the BHA so his status hasn't changed but he is definitely entered.
24011 / 3.15pm / At The Races App Form Study Novices' Chase (Class 3) (GBB Race)

1m 7f 214y / 4YO+ / ?12,000 Open for entries

Stabling capacity: 101  Maximum races: 8
Going: Soft

7
Entries
0
Seq
13
FSL
14
SF/MF
  • Enter by 12:00
Horse / Rider
Age / Sex
Rating
Trainer / Owner
  1. Anyharminasking (IRE)
6 G -- Jonjo O'Neill Mrs Gay Smith
  1. Arclight
Nico de Boinville 4 F -- Nicky Henderson Fortnum Racing
  1. Bubble Dubi (FR)
Ciaran Gethings 6 G -- Stuart Edmunds The Garratt Family
  1. Chasing Fire
Sean Bowen 6 G -- Olly Murphy Mrs Diana L. Whateley
  1. I Like To Move It
Sam Twiston-Davies 6 G -- Nigel Twiston-Davies Anne-Marie & Jamie Shepperd
  1. Pembroke
Harry Skelton 6 G -- Dan Skelton Jon and Julia Aisbitt
  1. Rare Edition (IRE)
6 G -- Charlie Longsdon Pay The Bill Syndicate​
Click to expand...

If they all turn up that's probably one of the best beginners chases in the UK in a long time
 
Zachx02 said:
If they all turn up that's probably one of the best beginners chases in the UK in a long time
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Shees, I'd say so. Looks like we might know the best 2 mile novice chaser in the UK before the season has "started". :angel:
 
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HesTheOne said:
Quote from Paul Fergusons jumpers to follow

“I spoke with Noel George over the summer and the young trainer confirmed that his exciting five-year- old is to be aimed at novice chases in England this season and could start off at Newbury’s Winter Carni- val. Presumably, should all go well there, the Kauto Star will again come under consideration and his pres- ence will be an fascinating addition to the division”

He definitely looks a live contender for novice chasing on his hurdles rating. I watched his chase debut and he did look impressive but he only got a rpr of 118?

Wonder if that French gold cup target is this year or next.. it reads like it’s a further thought? That race has a good record with 5 and 6 year olds but not many done it in debut chase season. Sounds like the plan to start in November at Newbury for the Grade 2 (2m4) with maybe a tilt at the Kauto Star going off PF comments?

If the French GC was the target this year then you’d be less interested in Cheltenham but the quote “we’re dreaming of winning a French Gold Cup​ with him one day” doesn’t sound like an imminent plan.

He’s definitely on my radar
Click to expand...

Il Est Francais form line given a good boost yesterday at Auteuil. Kamchatka won very impressively yesterday he finished 2nd to IEF on previous start. Cudos to GeeGeeBanker for highlighting.
 
Il Est Francais is one I've pencilled in for the Turners. That form will get franked over and over. If he was with one of the big yards he'd be all the rage.

The risk with him is they go for the Brown Advisory, but that looks the wrong race for him this early. He has the potential to make up into a Gold Cup horse, but I wouldn't be thinking of stepping him up to three miles until the second half of next season.

The Turners isn't exactly looking like the strongest race, so 33/1 with a cashout firm looks a must bet to me.
 
Spectre said:
Il Est Francais is one I've pencilled in for the Turners. That form will get franked over and over. If he was with one of the big yards he'd be all the rage.

The risk with him is they go for the Brown Advisory, but that looks the wrong race for him this early. He has the potential to make up into a Gold Cup horse, but I wouldn't be thinking of stepping him up to three miles until the second half of next season.

The Turners isn't exactly looking like the strongest race, so 33/1 with a cashout firm looks a must bet to me.
Click to expand...

Yea I’ve backed both options but Turners looks a good call right now. Connections have said he’d compete at 2m in UK no problem but with the Grand Steeple being a career target I don’t see him competing at that distance.

Equally a BANC campaign could be over extending work wise if he’s going to be over and back between FR in next 12 months.
 
I don't imagine he'll go to the Grand Steeple as a novice, so there's no need to step him up to staying trips this season.

The campaign feels fairly obvious to me, but he is Tom George's son, so he'll probably get an entry in a 5f sprint at Redcar. They say the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree, and his old man has no idea how to campaign good horses. And this specifically is the biggest risk with backing him.
 
This is probably going to be an unpopular opinion but I've decided on Hermes Allen over Stay Away Fay for Paul Nicholls in the BANC.

Whilst not proven yet, I have this niggly feeling that the Albert Bartlett form will not prove to be as strong as previous renewals of the race. Another thing I've taken on board, and I know many put breeding aside, but I'm struggling to see a Shantou dining at the top table of a chase at the festival. They barely dine at the top table away from the festival. You will of course get the odd one, and in this case being The Storyteller, who won a G1 Novice Chase at Punchestown, but for me they are windy enough. One final reason is the fact the BANC is run on the old course, a sharper track than the new course (which he won the Bartlett on, in grinding fashion), where there is slightly less emphasis on stamina and a bit more on tactical speed (as Gerri Colombe found out last season), I just don't think it will suit Stay Away Fay.

I think Stay Away Fay would be better suited by a NH Chase than a BANC, in all honestly.

So why Hermes Allen?

The negative. The obvious, the flop at last seasons festival, however, the Ballymore is notorious for horses with a turn of foot, IMO, so it was hardly a surprise to see him struggle as, to my eye, he'd looked an out and out galloping type in his previous runs.

The positives. His performances prior to the Ballymore was one of a staying type, making all in near enough every hurdle race bar the Challow, where he was taken along by a very free going type, but he raced in second that day and just galloped on strongly in very soft ground.

His run at Aintree was solid enough, for a horse I believe want's further than two and half miles on a flat enough track. Still 7 lengths ahead of Letsbeclearaboutit, who finished 5 lengths behind Stay Away Fay in the Bartlett.

I also prefer his breeding, being by Poliglote, he's a more solid sire when looking for potential festival winners, with the likes of Don Poli (RSA Winner), Politologue (QMCC winner), Sire Du Berlais (Stayers Hurdle winner) plus other placed and close up performances in Grade 1's at the festival from his sire. His dams sire (Assessor) was a stayer on the flat too, winning and placing in multiple Group races ranging from 1m6f to 2m4f, so the stamina is in there in the breeding.

The saying horses for courses may well ring true, and in which case I could be completely wrong, and Hermes Allen may just not like Cheltenham, but I'm happy to give him another chance, especially over fences, which I think will be much more to his liking, so he goes in the book @ 20/1.


I will just point out that despite my niggly feeling about the Bartlett, I have actually backed Sandor Clegane for the BANC, as I think the slightly sharper, older course, will suit him more than Stay Away Fay, too, so between the pair I'd rather have him on side, if any, from that race.
 
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I had this weeks paddy free bet on giovinco at 20/1

looks an obvious shortener given he will likely run a couple of times up north in poor races

And he looked to have a huge amount of potential when winning the listed race beating a bunch of decent 130ish horses on the snaff by a long way

He's by walk in the park and is trained by lucinda Russell so the old cliche anything he does over hurdles is a bonus definitely applies

If the bartlett form is poor which is very possible he could be an improver like l'homme presse/the real whacker
 
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I clearly remember Tony McCoy saying last year on the Wednesday morning that Hermes Allen was running in the wrong race and should be running in the Bartlett. So he agrees with you. And he is not a bad judge of a race horse.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
This is probably going to be an unpopular opinion but I've decided on Hermes Allen over Stay Away Fay for Paul Nicholls in the BANC.

Whilst not proven yet, I have this niggly feeling that the Albert Bartlett form will not prove to be as strong as previous renewals of the race. Another thing I've taken on board, and I know many put breeding aside, but I'm struggling to see a Shantou dining at the top table of a chase at the festival. They barely dine at the top table away from the festival. You will of course get the odd one, and in this case being The Storyteller, who won a G1 Novice Chase at Punchestown, but for me they are windy enough. One final reason is the fact the BANC is run on the old course, a sharper track than the new course (which he won the Bartlett on, in grinding fashion), where there is slightly less emphasis on stamina and a bit more on tactical speed (as Gerri Colombe found out last season), I just don't think it will suit Stay Away Fay.

I think Stay Away Fay would be better suited by a NH Chase than a BANC, in all honestly.

So why Hermes Allen?

The negative. The obvious, the flop at last seasons festival, however, the Ballymore is notorious for horses with a turn of foot, IMO, so it was hardly a surprise to see him struggle as, to my eye, he'd looked an out and out galloping type in his previous runs.

The positives. His performances prior to the Ballymore was one of a staying type, making all in near enough every hurdle race bar the Challow, where he was taken along by a very free going type, but he raced in second that day and just galloped on strongly in very soft ground.

His run at Aintree was solid enough, for a horse I believe want's further than two and half miles on a flat enough track. Still 7 lengths ahead of Letsbeclearaboutit, who finished 5 lengths behind Stay Away Fay in the Bartlett.

I also prefer his breeding, being by Poliglote, he's a more solid sire when looking for potential festival winners, with the likes of Don Poli (RSA Winner), Politologue (QMCC winner), Sire Du Berlais (Stayers Hurdle winner) plus other placed and close up performances in Grade 1's at the festival from his sire. His dams sire (Assessor) was a stayer on the flat too, winning and placing in multiple Group races ranging from 1m6f to 2m4f, so the stamina is in there in the breeding.

The saying horses for courses may well ring true, and in which case I could be completely wrong, and Hermes Allen may just not like Cheltenham, but I'm happy to give him another chance, especially over fences, which I think will be much more to his liking, so he goes in the book @ 20/1.


I will just point out that despite my niggly feeling about the Bartlett, I have actually backed Sandor Clegane for the BANC, as I think the slightly sharper, older course, will suit him more than Stay Away Fay, too, so between the pair I'd rather have him on side, if any, from that race.
Click to expand...

I clearly remember Tony McCoy saying last year on the Wednesday morning that Hermes Allen was running in the wrong race and should be running in the Bartlett. So he agrees with you. And he is not a bad judge of a race horse.
 
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Hermes Allen is a good pick for either race.

He had Wind issues throughout last season, and only had the operation after the season ended.

They went with a Tongue Tie, all season instead of having a Wind Op.

So he could be a fair bit better than he managed with that issue solved, if that Op works well.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Hermes Allen is a good pick for either race.

He had Wind issues throughout last season, and only had the operation after the season ended.

They went with a Tongue Tie, all season instead of having a Wind Op.

So he could be a fair bit better than he managed with that issue solved, if that Op works well.
Click to expand...

I can’t shake the feeling he’s best suited to a flat track. Nicholls has had a few like him in recent years. Shades of Cyrname & Pic D’orhy about him for me SW.
 
SeanRock said:
I can’t shake the feeling he’s best suited to a flat track. Nicholls has had a few like him in recent years. Shades of Cyrname & Pic D’orhy about him for me SW.
Click to expand...

Could well be.

Its possible that the delayed wind op, could launch him beyond his hurdles rating.

Where that happens?, is very much the question
 
ComplyOrDie said:
This is probably going to be an unpopular opinion but I've decided on Hermes Allen over Stay Away Fay for Paul Nicholls in the BANC.

Whilst not proven yet, I have this niggly feeling that the Albert Bartlett form will not prove to be as strong as previous renewals of the race. Another thing I've taken on board, and I know many put breeding aside, but I'm struggling to see a Shantou dining at the top table of a chase at the festival. They barely dine at the top table away from the festival. You will of course get the odd one, and in this case being The Storyteller, who won a G1 Novice Chase at Punchestown, but for me they are windy enough. One final reason is the fact the BANC is run on the old course, a sharper track than the new course (which he won the Bartlett on, in grinding fashion), where there is slightly less emphasis on stamina and a bit more on tactical speed (as Gerri Colombe found out last season), I just don't think it will suit Stay Away Fay.

I think Stay Away Fay would be better suited by a NH Chase than a BANC,
Click to expand...

I’ve backed both for the BANC but like you, I’m more keen on Hermes

all throughout the season, Hermes was the one that Nicholls would take about, and he normally sends his best over to the challow

Whereas, I haven’t been blow away from Nicholls comments with SAF - especially after aintree where he was quoted as saying SAF could start over hurdles in this up and coming season. I have a feeling SAF is more of a proper stayer, a NHC type and may lack the tactical pace for a BANC

Im also a little bit concerned about the quality of that AB, one to watch out for as the season progresses

as a result, my stakes have been split across the two both 70% leaning towards Hermes Allen
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I had this weeks paddy free bet on giovinco at 20/1

looks an obvious shortener given he will likely run a couple of times up north in poor races

And he looked to have a huge amount of potential when winning the listed race beating a bunch of decent 130ish horses on the snaff by a long way

He's by walk in the park and is trained by lucinda Russell so the old cliche anything he does over hurdles is a bonus definitely applies

If the bartlett form is poor which is very possible he could be an improver like l'homme presse/the real whacker
Click to expand...

Another one that I’ve backed this week

BANC has a weird way of finding winners that are trained by GB trainer and didn’t really feature at the festival or went unnoticed over hurdles - l’homme,whacker, might bite, top ofthegame (2nd in coral)

Lucinda has trained some noticeable 3 miles, Ahoy could have had multiple grade 1’s if he was more consistent - there’s no doubt there’s an engine there. She’s won the ultima and national. For me, she’s starting to be one of those trainers to take note for 3 miles and further
 
Think I might have said this before so apologies for boring everyone :emmersed:

I'd love to see Nicholls properly back dining at the top table. He had decent success at this year's festival and hopefully that's got him back into the importance of the festival. All that Cheltenham doesn't really matter nonsense isn't for anyone...

I'm sure nobody is competing with Mullins for a long time but I don't think it's ridiculous for Nicholls to be leading the battle for best of the rest (of the trainers) in the graded races.

And because I want to see it I've put on the following doubles:


Hermes Allen (Turners) & Stay Away Fay (BANC)

Hermes Allen (BANC) & Stay Away Fay (NHC)


​​​​​​
​​
​​​​​​
 
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