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2024 Novice Chasers

Finally pulled the trigger on Stay Away Fay @ 16/1 for the BANC. Would never normally back a PN horse ante post as he's a 'wait for aintree' merchant, but you have to assume all roads lead back to Cheltenham after the AB. I think 16/1 is extremely fair. He was a good winner of the AB which is a well established route to the BANC. PN excels with staying novice chasers. The breeding is on point, he won a PTP over 3m (beating Monty's Star) and even now you'd assume all roads lead BANC. If SAF was trained by Willie he'd be half the current price and I think all things considered it a good bet.
 
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charlie said:
Finally pulled the trigger on Stay Away Fay @ 16/1 for the BANC. Would never normally back a PN horse ante post as he's a 'wait for aintree' merchant, but you have to assume all roads lead back to Cheltenham after the AB. I think 16/1 is extremely fair. He was a good winner of the AB which is a well established route to the BANC. PN excels with staying novice chasers. The breeding is on point, he won a PTP over 3m (beating Monty's Star) and even now you'd assume all roads lead BANC. If SAF was trained by Willie he'd be half the current price and I think all things considered it a good bet.
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100 percent agree and nicholls knows a thing or two about staying chasers so should improve for a fence, I've also backed him, straight after his bartlett win.
 
charlie said:
Finally pulled the trigger on Stay Away Fay @ 16/1 for the BANC. Would never normally back a PN horse ante post as he's a 'wait for aintree' merchant, but you have to assume all roads lead back to Cheltenham after the AB. I think 16/1 is extremely fair. He was a good winner of the AB which is a well established route to the BANC. PN excels with staying novice chasers. The breeding is on point, he won a PTP over 3m (beating Monty's Star) and even now you'd assume all roads lead BANC. If SAF was trained by Willie he'd be half the current price and I think all things considered it a good bet.
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This season’s best value no brainer bet.
A staple.
 
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Nicholls gushes about him too. Best novice hurdle form over a trip, arguably the best 3 mile chase trainer. 16/1 is great value. I’m in love with Corbetts Cross but how on earth is he shorter that SAF …
 
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Stay Away Fay has always looked like a big chasing type as well. Also backed him straight after the Bartlett. Think everyone must have backed him now. And surprised he's still available at the same price :redface-new:

I think PN dodging Cheltenham for Aintree is a thing of the past now as well. I wouldn't take that into consideration for any of his horses that I thought had a chance at Cheltenham next year. Each to their own though.
 
Benjy23 said:
Stay Away Fay has always looked like a big chasing type as well. Also backed him straight after the Bartlett. Think everyone must have backed him now. And surprised he's still available at the same price :redface-new:

I think PN dodging Cheltenham for Aintree is a thing of the past now as well. I wouldn't take that into consideration for any of his horses that I thought had a chance at Cheltenham next year. Each to their own though.
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….I actually backed him for BANC before the AB based solely on PN pre-Festival stable tour when he said this one was a staying chaser and anything he did in the in the AB would be a bonus.

Only slight downside is him finishing behind Maximilian twice but I think there are excuses. Maximilian looks an out and out stayer and might be of interest in NHC. Knowing the trainer, you have to wonder if he’s back planning for a tilt at a future GN (Simon Rowlands after 2nd to Apple Away over 3m at Aintree; ‘Maximilian might well need this trip and further over fences or hurdles next season’).
 
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Eggs said:
….I actually backed him for BANC before the AB based solely on PN pre-Festival stable tour when he said this one was a staying chaser and anything he did in the in the AB would be a bonus.

Only slight downside is him finishing behind Maximilian twice but I think there are excuses. Maximilian looks an out and out stayer and might be of interest in NHC. Knowing the trainer, you have to wonder if he’s back planning for a tilt at a future GN (Simon Rowlands after 2nd to Apple Away over 3m at Aintree; ‘Maximilian might well need this trip and further over fences or hurdles next season’).
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​​​​​​Good stuff. You must be the only person without 16s :excitement:
 
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The last of the 20s for mister policeman in the arkle are now gone. 365 slashed the price almost in half
 
Think we can move the MN v FV conversation thats happening on the Constitution Hill thread here.

It's an interesting debate but one that can go round in circles. Regardless of where you stand I think there are 3 points most will fundamentally agree on:
  • MN was a better novice hurdler who won the supreme fair and square.
  • FV has a better NH profile than MN.
  • MN is the less complicated of the two.
For me that last point is key. Fences have to make a man out of FV because MN has the perfect temperament for a campaign over 2m. It would obviously be ideal to see FV and MN clash at some point as then we'll have our questions answered for us, but there's every chance they don't and I think its also important to factor in trainer decision making. Willie will almost always go for the easier more winnable race, it's how he's wired. I think MN will prove the real deal and WM will duck a clash at the DRF and opt to step FV before going Turners. Thats just a hunch. If FV takes to fences, settles and learns to jump better then there's every chance he stays over 2m and there is no need to go up. It's exciting either way, cant wait to see how it pans out.
 
charlie said:
Think we can move the MN v FV conversation thats happening on the Constitution Hill thread here.

It's an interesting debate but one that can go round in circles. Regardless of where you stand I think there are 3 points most will fundamentally agree on:
  • MN was a better novice hurdler who won the supreme fair and square.
  • FV has a better NH profile than MN.
  • MN is the less complicated of the two.
For me that last point is key. Fences have to make a man out of FV because MN has the perfect temperament for a campaign over 2m. It would obviously be ideal to see FV and MN clash at some point as then we'll have our questions answered for us, but there's every chance they don't and I think its also important to factor in trainer decision making. Willie will almost always go for the easier more winnable race, it's how he's wired. I think MN will prove the real deal and WM will duck a clash at the DRF and opt to step FV before going Turners. Thats just a hunch. If FV takes to fences, settles and learns to jump better then there's every chance he stays over 2m and there is no need to go up. It's exciting either way, cant wait to see how it pans out.
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One thing you didn't mention about MN though is that he is a store bought flat bred, we know walk in the parks take to fences very well but has French Navy had a single chaser yet? It'll be interesting to see
 
charlie said:
Think we can move the MN v FV conversation thats happening on the Constitution Hill thread here.

It's an interesting debate but one that can go round in circles. Regardless of where you stand I think there are 3 points most will fundamentally agree on:
  • MN was a better novice hurdler who won the supreme fair and square.
  • FV has a better NH profile than MN.
  • MN is the less complicated of the two.
For me that last point is key. Fences have to make a man out of FV because MN has the perfect temperament for a campaign over 2m. It would obviously be ideal to see FV and MN clash at some point as then we'll have our questions answered for us, but there's every chance they don't and I think its also important to factor in trainer decision making. Willie will almost always go for the easier more winnable race, it's how he's wired. I think MN will prove the real deal and WM will duck a clash at the DRF and opt to step FV before going Turners. Thats just a hunch. If FV takes to fences, settles and learns to jump better then there's every chance he stays over 2m and there is no need to go up. It's exciting either way, cant wait to see how it pans out.
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I can't wait for it Charlie, I really cant. One of the most intriguing clashes of the season for me at the minute.
 
Zachx02 said:
One thing you didn't mention about MN though is that he is a store bought flat bred, we know walk in the parks take to fences very well but has French Navy had a single chaser yet? It'll be interesting to see
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'FV has a better NH profile than MN' is refers to one being bred for fences and the other not.
 
MN was much the better jumper of Hurdles than FV. Connections have commented several times re FV jumping and how they hope he'll treat fences with a bit more respect. MN however has schooled over fences very well according to his trainer so you would say he has a head start there. Be interesting to see how long the two trainers can keep those two away from each other in order not to burst the bubble too early in the season.
 
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