2024 Novice Chasers

[billymag]

Harry said he could go any distance and that he's clearly got plenty of speed the way he quickened up today.

I haven't backed him but from that I'd say Turners would be favourite imo.

Yeah you could be right, personally think he would be more suited to the RSA. Worry would be that he skips and goes to Aintree but will see. Was shame Dan wasnt there as think he would of not been able to hide his excitement and blabbed out the plan.

 

[Lobos]

Why do you ? EF gets away with it because he has way more talent than his rivals. So he wins despite not because of his jumping. HY has nowhere near the kind of talent that allows him such luxury. It’s absolutely pointless using EF to defend another horses poor jumping unless they are of the same level ability wise and very very few are.

I happen to think Hunters Yarn is very talented. Not at EF level yet but he's certainly made a very impressive start to his chasing career. He looks a big strong type too. Time will tell.

 

[Stormez]

Just find it hard to fancy an ex-triumph horse running as a 5 year old at the festival. Apple's Jade the only one I can think of that won the following year.

I am slightly hypocritical by the way, having backed Gala Marceau for the mare's :glee:

Katchit didn’t do too bad as a 5yo!

 

[Lobos]

Yeah you could be right, personally think he would be more suited to the RSA. Worry would be that he skips and goes to Aintree but will see. Was shame Dan wasnt there as think he would of not been able to hide his excitement and blabbed out the plan.

Plan is the Scilly Isles likely next at Sandown over 2 1/2m and then he'll get 2 entries at the fez (assuming BANC and Turners). Owner hopes he'll be a Gold Cup horse next season with the Betfair Chase an early target.

Unibet held at 40/1 Turners up until an hour ago but now cut into 25's.

 

[Benjy23]

Tried to give some indication based on the exchanges but he's not even in the Turners market on there, as far as I can see.

I'm not sure you can take that formline and improvement through The Changing Man too literally to be honest. And by that I mean you definitely shouldn't. But I'd expect Grey Dawning to still be very competitive in the RSA. Good contender for second behind SAF.
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[That Horse]

Katchit didn’t do too bad as a 5yo!

That was my first ever win betting at Cheltenham. The mug that I was back then, I wouldn't have had a clue that he'd ran the previous year!

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Tried to give some indication based on the exchanges but he's not even in the Turners market on there, as far as I can see.

I'm not sure you can take that formline and improvement through The Changing Man too literally to be honest. And by that I mean you definitely shouldn't. But I'd expect Grey Dawning to still be very competitive in the RSA. Good contender for second behind SAF.
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He should def go BANC….,but I could see one or two switching to Turners as only GW to beat who could beat himself

 

[robith]

Just find it hard to fancy an ex-triumph horse running as a 5 year old at the festival. Apple's Jade the only one I can think of that won the following year.

I am slightly hypocritical by the way, having backed Gala Marceau for the mare's :glee:

Iirc it's especially pronounced for novice chasers though as they get early season weight allowances they don't get at the spring festivals- so their early chase form isn't always the true tale

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Also worth noting only bad run from BD was at Chelt

Expect he will win easily today & go v short…,so those with books might want cover …,,but struggle to see him running 160+ needed to win an Arkle or Turners

Imagine also one to keep eye on ..,,GE doesn’t have much for novice chases & this could be his Arkle/Turners hope with FAF?

 

[Lobos]

Tried to give some indication based on the exchanges but he's not even in the Turners market on there, as far as I can see.

I'm not sure you can take that formline and improvement through The Changing Man too literally to be honest. And by that I mean you definitely shouldn't. But I'd expect Grey Dawning to still be very competitive in the RSA. Good contender for second behind SAF.
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He was cut to 16/1 by B365 after yesterday's race and into 7/1 NRMB with Hills. 40/1 with Unibet was just ridiculous. Think their odds compiler must have woke up this morning and shat himself.

Not sure they'll want to take on SAF again in the BANC especially if it comes up Soft. If he wins the Scilly Isles then I'd expect his Turners odds to crash in.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Has Willie ever won a Handicap Chase at the Festival?

He's beaten the 3rd horse by 9 lengths more than Marine Nationale did so perhaps MN should be held back for the Grand Annual as well. Now that would be something!!

I have recency bias because of how he campaigned State Man and GDC after they disappointed on debut.

Rare you get the chance to do it with a chaser as they theoretically are more exposed but with HY being a failed plot last year his hurdles mark isn't starting him off anywhere near where most top 2m hurdlers are

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I have recency bias because of how he campaigned State Man and GDC after they disappointed on debut.

Rare you get the chance to do it with a chaser as they theoretically are more exposed but with HY being a failed plot last year his hurdles mark isn't starting him off anywhere near where most top 2m hurdlers are

Is there any no. of runs criteria for Hcap chases like hurdles?

 

[Lobos]

I have recency bias because of how he campaigned State Man and GDC after they disappointed on debut.

Rare you get the chance to do it with a chaser as they theoretically are more exposed but with HY being a failed plot last year his hurdles mark isn't starting him off anywhere near where most top 2m hurdlers are

If he runs in a Handicap I'll jump the last two fences at the Fez naked with a Fat Jockey badge stapled to my head.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Is there any no. of runs criteria for Hcap chases like hurdles?

3 to get your mark I believe.

I mentioned the hurdle mark because they are undoubtedly considered when making a first chase mark imo regardless of whether the BHA say it's stand alone or not

 

[TigerRolllllll]

3 to get your mark I believe.

I mentioned the hurdle mark because they are undoubtedly considered when making a first chase mark imo regardless of whether the BHA say it's stand alone or not

3 chase runs? So HY needs another to get in Grand Annual?

 

[Hurricane fly]

If he runs in a Handicap I'll jump the last two fences at the Fez naked with a Fat Jockey badge stapled to my head.

70k for winning the GA vs 37k for finishing 2nd to Marine

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's certainly an angle that I have considered and will likely cover NRNB

 

[TigerRolllllll]

70k for winning the GA vs 37k for finishing 2nd to Marine

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's certainly an angle that I have considered and will likely cover NRNB

Interesting to see rating HY gets for yesterday

Willie needs an Arkle horse.......Its big jump for BD as a 5-year old......not impossible & likely wins well today.For me HY is best we have seen of Willie's so far.....but lack of DRF entry a concern, so you maybe right

I will admit to some pocket talking.....as HY seemed a value play & so he's a big one at mo for me......Marine should win, but its one horse

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just find it hard to fancy an ex-triumph horse running as a 5 year old at the festival. Apple's Jade the only one I can think of that won the following year.

I am slightly hypocritical by the way, having backed Gala Marceau for the mare's :glee:

Blood Destiny being a 5 year old doesn’t really bother me, in fact I quite like a trainer like Mullins sending him chasing early, shows how much confidence he has in him.
Seeing how he jumped I can see why!! Real natural.
If he repeats that today or performs similarly than I expect him to become his main arkle horse.
He could go Turners of course, so nrnb for both races imo.

 

[Lobos]

Blood Destiny being a 5 year old doesn’t really bother me, in fact I quite like a trainer like Mullins sending him chasing early, shows how much confidence he has in him.
Seeing how he jumped I can see why!! Real natural.
If he repeats that today or performs similarly than I expect him to become his main arkle horse.
He could go Turners of course, so nrnb for both races imo.

Yeah, must be a bit of a worry for Arkle the way he's been campaigned so far this season. I've backed him for the Arkle but prefer Hunters over him on what we've seen so far.

 

[Lobos]

Interesting to see rating HY gets for yesterday

Willie needs an Arkle horse.......Its big jump for BD as a 5-year old......not impossible & likely wins well today.For me HY is best we have seen of Willie's so far.....but lack of DRF entry a concern, so you maybe right

I will admit to some pocket talking.....as HY seemed a value play & so he's a big one at mo for me......Marine should win, but its one horse

Should be at least as good a mark as what Marine Nationale was given taking into account how far he beat the 3rd by yesterday. Not that interested in ratings though, more a visual man.