2024 Gold Cup

[jono]

I can understand this, but it wouldn't be my preference. I'd want to see him tested in 1 or even 2 proper grade 1 races before Cheltenham. Down Royal or the Betfair Chase to start, then could go to the Savills at Christmas before a prep like the Denman chase would be fine. I fear that running in weak races won't get the necessary experience into him of going at "grade 1 pace"
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Very fair point. And one that you could certainly argue was his archiles heal last season at the festival. And one that will be another level this coming season.
Going into the Brown Advisory, the counter argument I had against his 'easier' campaigning - bypassing what you could consider would be the biggest tests, was that him tackling shorter trips would allow him to stick with the pace and lie up with the rest when running over 3 miles.
But that never materialised. He did get outpaced. For one reason or another.

For me, most of the Gold Cup trials don't particularly play out like the Gold Cup itself, and that relentless pace that doesn't seem to let up.
So I feel like he's either going to be able to cope come the day, or not. As it'll be another level, to what, certainly in the 2 big Irish 3 miles races are fairly slowly run.

I'd definitely make use of the Aintree race. It was his most complete performance there to finish the season.
Probably a moot point though. As talk of the Betfair Chase show they are likely aiming higher.

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[Odin]

I thought GC just had an off day in the RSA.

In a 9 race career, he's won 8 races and finished 2nd. In that time he's only ran in one race where the track wasn't described as undulating (6 runs across various tracks) or testing (2x Fairyhouse runs) by Racing Post, so I'd say he clearly handles undulations. Most of his runs have been right handed though, which could have been a factor; similarly, the quieter build up could have been a factor as has been alluded to as a strength and weakness above. Definitely think I'd prefer him to run in a stronger race pre-festival, ideally at Xmas in the Savills. I don't think he wants to be going DRF on potentially fast ground.

Then again similar thoughts apply to GMG regarding DRF. It'll be really interesting to see how he develops this year. I had a poke on him ew at 66s after yesterdays run before I realised he got 5lb from Easy Game, but it was a really solid run on his second ever chase start and I'd be hopeful they want to test him out at Down Royal next time. Alternatively, he could be a very early contender for the Irish National...

 

[Quevega]

The biggest issue with Gerri Colombe is his current price.
Is he really the second best staying chaser in training ??? - because the Gold cup market says he is.

Unexceptional second season chasers that have won the Gold cup in recent years were much bigger prices at this stage and throughout the season.
Horses like Minella Indo and Al Boum Photo were worth taking a punt on - due to the second season chaser's aged 7 and 8 stats being so good.

The season will decide how much he can improve.
He is the type that may well turn up and run well in the Gold cup 2024. But is unbackable at the moment. IMO.
A bit like Envoi Allen, who was a very poor price, and was odds on to lose a couple of times on route to defending his Ryanair title.

Touching on archies comments above.

Some horses are worth waiting on, and pouncing when the price is right, it's a long season with lots of ups and downs, and if you do hold off some bets and it goes wrong and they improve and shorten dramatically then take it on the chin. If you think a horse looks too short and rationalise why you think this way then it'll likely stop you making a sheepish bet because you think you may miss out. The vast majority of bets you do or don't make - LOSE anyway.

I had a few chats with archie last season as I felt the odds for GDC were fairly short (7-2 or lower) most of the season and the Gold cup field looked potentially deeper than some renewals. IMO.
It turns out that you could get 11/4, 9/4 during the week and near the day.
However, I thought he may have been available slightly bigger and ultimately archie was right in his confidence in the horses ability, and for taking the price. I didn't doubt his ability, I just felt the price may hold or get bigger than the price he was most of the year and I couldn't see a path for him shortening dramatically to evens or shorter for example. I wasn't far off.

In strong markets like the Gold cup and Champion hurdle, it is worth looking at the exchange and he was a solid 9/4 for weeks leading up to the race.
It's probably easier to stake money if you believe in the horses ability so much when the risks are much lower of not losing your stake 9/4 NRNB vs 7-2 antepost.

As an example, this season Constitution Hill has settled at 1/2 on the exchange, and barring a number of injuries in Ireland I cannot see this changing a great deal. Unless he gets beat in the UK, which seems unlikely, but possible. And more than one bookmaker offered him at even money to decent stakes in the end - last season.

This season though, I think Galopin des Champs price now is fair, as opposition looks thin on the ground and he's beat most of them already, so I'd anticipate the likely outcome is him being shorter come the day. And potentially odds on. Which is why bravemansgame at 12-1 is such a good price e/w. If GDC does go off odds on then he's likely shat all over the Irish challengers.
The only fly in this ointment is Gerri Colombe or Fastorslow proving to be better animals, and this is unlikely, but possible.

 

[Runragged]

When it comes to Gold Cup horses I think tactical speed is often disregarded. You have to be in the right place at the right time and you need the speed to get there. You have to go back to Lord Windemere in 2014 to find the last horse to make up more than a couple of lengths jumping the 2nd last. Between 2015-2021 the eventual winner led over the 2nd last, whilst A Plus Tard made up approximately 2 lengths on Minella Indo in 2022 and Galopin Des Champs 1/2 length. Generally you can't get outpaced in a Gold Cup and still win it, you need to be in contention unless you have that tactical speed like GDC who can make up ground quickly to get amongst the leaders turning in. I would have to be worried whether Gerri would have the necessary speed to remain in contention when it matters. That's not to say another summer under his belt won't see him improve further. Needs to show much more tactical speed before I can consider his price any value however.

 

[Kautostar]

When it comes to Gold Cup horses I think tactical speed is often disregarded. You have to be in the right place at the right time and you need the speed to get there. You have to go back to Lord Windemere in 2014 to find the last horse to make up more than a couple of lengths jumping the 2nd last. Between 2015-2021 the eventual winner led over the 2nd last, whilst A Plus Tard made up approximately 2 lengths on Minella Indo in 2022 and Galopin Des Champs 1/2 length. Generally you can't get outpaced in a Gold Cup and still win it, you need to be in contention unless you have that tactical speed like GDC who can make up ground quickly to get amongst the leaders turning in. I would have to be worried whether Gerri would have the necessary speed to remain in contention when it matters. That's not to say another summer under his belt won't see him improve further. Needs to show much more tactical speed before I can consider his price any value however.

I’d be very interested in him on heavy ground, looks a dour stayer to me but I don’t think he’d have the tactical pace on anything better.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I struggle with the whole find an
alternative to Galopin des Champs process, book makers absolutely need to, you can’t have have just 1 horse in a race, but Gerri Colombe second fav just confirms how far I have the fav ahead.

You can take RPRs in multiple ways but it took
GC five runs as a novice to get a 166 quote, that is a figure GDC exceeded in all of his novice chases bar debut.
His final novice race (4th chase run) he achieved a 177 quote from the good people at bible HQ, so GC enters his open season 11lb inferior to GDC as a novice on RPR ratings, I can’t help thinking people are clutching to the straw that he peaked at Cheltenham and is now regressing following defeat after his Gold Cup win.

I will look for alternatives in the race but only if the fav has a setback…

 

[nortonscoin200]

I struggle with the whole find an
alternative to Galopin des Champs process, book makers absolutely need to, you can’t have have just 1 horse in a race, but Gerri Colombe second fav just confirms how far I have the fav ahead.

You can take RPRs in multiple ways but it took
GC five runs as a novice to get a 166 quote, that is a figure GDC exceeded in all of his novice chases bar debut.
His final novice race (4th chase run) he achieved a 177 quote from the good people at bible HQ, so GC enters his open season 11lb inferior to GDC as a novice on RPR ratings, I can’t help thinking people are clutching to the straw that he peaked at Cheltenham and is now regressing following defeat after his Gold Cup win.

I will look for alternatives in the race but only if the fav has a setback…

Reckon it’s a race to find a big price each way alternative nearer the time. Same with the Champion Hurdle.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Reckon it’s a race to find a big price each way alternative nearer the time. Same with the Champion Hurdle.

You need to find a 25/1 shot that places to return the same as a same total stake win bet on the fav at 2/1.
Doable obviously, but arguably with more risk….

 

[HesTheOne]

You need to find a 25/1 shot that places to return the same as a same total stake win bet on the fav at 2/1.
Doable obviously, but arguably with more risk….

Arguably something that is easier done on the day too with all the extra places jazz and morning drifters

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Arguably something that is easier done on the day too with all the extra places jazz and morning drifters

Definitely, if you have all the right accs you can get five places in a 12 runner Gold Cup...

 

[nortonscoin200]

You need to find a 25/1 shot that places to return the same as a same total stake win bet on the fav at 2/1.
Doable obviously, but arguably with more risk….

Yeah, fair point Istabraq, put like that it doesn’t sound much of a deal going the each way outsider route.

But it does give you the bonus option of the rag actually winning.

Last season I was eyeing up such a bet on Minella Indo (hoping to get 50-1 from memory) but he went and ruined the script by winning on his seasonal debut at Tramore on New Year’s Day.

The other I was hoping to get onside at a big price was Ahoy Senor - but he hadn’t read the script either and won the Cotswold Chase on trials day.

Ive got him in mind again - still travelling nicely in front when he came down in March - but again he needs to drift further before I’d step in.

The plan did work better in the Champion Hurdle though - backed Zanahiyr at around 90-1 each way in early March.

Reckon there will be similar opportunities this time round if Constitution Hill gets there in one piece.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Yeah, fair point Istabraq, put like that it doesn’t sound much of a deal going the each way outsider route.

But it does give you the bonus option of the rag actually winning.

Last season I was eyeing up such a bet on Minella Indo (hoping to get 50-1 from memory) but he went and ruined the script by winning on his seasonal debut at Tramore on New Year’s Day.

The other I was hoping to get onside at a big price was Ahoy Senor - but he hadn’t read the script either and won the Cotswold Chase on trials day.

Ive got him in mind again - still travelling nicely in front when he came down in March - but again he needs to drift further before I’d step in.

The plan did work better in the Champion Hurdle though - backed Zanahiyr at around 90-1 each way in early March.

Reckon there will be similar opportunities this time round if Constitution Hill gets there in one piece.

Yep, sometimes the smart play is no bet until the day, and unless you have a strong view the favs aren't as good as everyone thinks or knowledge there's been a setback then finding an alternative to Galopin des Champs or Constitution Hill is best left until race day.
I had a strong view last year Galopin was beatable and was backing Conflated and Stattler each way ante post, I was lucky to have snared the 66s Conflated in April but was playing the pair of them 12/1/14/1 each way ante post terms in Dec/Jan/Feb, Conflated placed at 22s and Stattler PU at 16s and of course I was only ever getting 3 places...

 

[archie]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

 

[Spectre]

I would much prefer him for the Ryanair Archie. I'm in the camp where I have him as a doubtful stayer at the top level. I do think it's a wide open Ryanair, and that race would suit him down to the ground. I'd be fairly sure that Patrick Neville will give him a Gold Cup campaign though.

 

[Kautostar]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

I think he’ll get swallowed up in the final few furlongs, Gerri almost got to him despite not travelling throughout the race. I’d be very interested in him should he drop in trip in the Ryanair and try to do an Allaho from the front.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

Fastorslow is octuple the price of a horse he beat in April :biggrin-new:

 

[Runragged]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

I would agree with you given his price, the fact that he is lightly raced and has improved for every run over a fence. Has the right running style, likely out near the front whilst also jumps well. Second season chasers have a good record in the race whilst they have also suggested the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury as his initial season target, which doesn't sound like connections have stamina concerns. Obviously there is the initial worry, but with another summer under his belt and a season of working on stamina then he could be an early value play in the race. If he was to go the Coral Gold Cup route and win or place then his price should shorten. Always going to have that 'IF' though when betting Ante Post!

 

[Quevega]

The Real Whacker might get done for class, but class don't always win the Gold cup.
His heart is as big as most, and to my eye he looked like he just got idle/lonely in his finishes, almost as though once the jockey's urges "changed" it made him think about it and idle/think a bit.
I doubt stamina is his issue, more that he might meet his match/level.

 

[Quevega]

I think he’ll get swallowed up in the final few furlongs, Gerri almost got to him despite not travelling throughout the race. I’d be very interested in him should he drop in trip in the Ryanair and try to do an Allaho from the front.

The Champ RSA springs to mind.
The one that stayed on past the front pace setters (who went too quick IMO) turned out to be one paced and mostly shite.
The other 2 went in different directions.
He'd have to be relentless like the novice that won and the Tizzard horse. To win a gold cup.

 

[Benjy23]

Aye, he's also battled Bronn from a fair way out as well from memory. I'm not convinced the trip will be an issue. And I'm not convinced Geri is entitled to finish ahead of him over any trip.

He's just not that fashionable is he. Same could be said before this year's festival. And in the reaction from many immediately after as well :emmersed: