2024 Gold Cup

[BagOfHammers]

Correct me if I’m wrong but did I see Hendo suggest Shishkin might go to the Betfair Chase? 9/1 looks good value if so especially if the field cuts up like it often does

 

[Kautostar]

Correct me if I’m wrong but did I see Hendo suggest Shishkin might go to the Betfair Chase? 9/1 looks good value if so especially if the field cuts up like it often does

Usually bottomless ground hendo wouldn’t run him on that

 

[Guinness Village]

Fairly shit graded novice races though !
Highest rated horse he beat was 155.
The deepest race he ran in, was at the most important course and he got outpaced when it mattered by mid 150's horses.

The lowest rated in the Gold cup top 10 is around 169 I think.

He will improve I'm sure, over the season, but a lot of them don't improve enough, and this season, unless injuries prevail, you're going to need to be capable of around 175/180, come March.
Not many hit that level.
7-1 is PISH.
He's probably destined for a 3rd or fourth placed finish in March at best.

On quixall crossett? He’d probably have Gerri by your reckoning

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Not convinced gerri handled the undulating track last season

Think haydock would be much more his bag

Flat track, soft ground

 

[Captain Chris]

I do like second season chasers though so Gerri cannot be ruled out come the day. But as I’ve previously mentioned I think his price is shite as it’s rare a second season chaser comes out of the blocks early season and dominates his elders.
Unless you’re exceptional or the division has become significantly weaker.
I don’t think either applies and would be very surprised if he remained single figures throughout the season.

Completely agree. Think Gerri is a big player in the gold cup, but can see him being beaten in his first big test and drifting. Be surprised if we're not able to get ~16s post Christmas. Feels similar to Minella Indo and that price was available for much of the season

 

[Lobos]

Not convinced gerri handled the undulating track last season

Think haydock would be much more his bag

Flat track, soft ground

A good point. Watched the BANC back and he wasn't happy the whole way round. Whilst he only got beat a Nose he was never going to win the race if that makes sense. Was on his favourite Soft ground as well. He may not get that on the Friday in the GC.

 

[HesTheOne]

A good point. Watched the BANC back and he wasn't happy the whole way round. Whilst he only got beat a Nose he was never going to win the race if that makes sense. Was on his favourite Soft ground as well. He may not get that on the Friday in the GC.

Do you think Jack being on board would have changed the result.. I’d like to think so. Haven’t watched it back so going off memory of first viewing.

 

[Lobos]

Do you think Jack being on board would have changed the result.. I’d like to think so. Haven’t watched it back so going off memory of first viewing.

Don't think so. Think he'll get take off his feet in a GC unless it comes up deep.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The outpaced thing worries me too with GC.

I know The Real Whacker goes a fair clip, but I expected Gerri to swallow him up and some, but he couldn't even get up, let alone by any sizeable margin. Not a chance the Gold Cup will be run at a dawdle, so for that reason, and the fact he's second favourite and single figures, I couldn't be backing him.

I do have him in a successful free bet roll up but it's not worth a whole heap, potentially cover for stakes, but I won't be adding to it any time soon.

 

[Star De Mohaison]

Could the new course help bring in Gerri Colombe's stamina, he was really motoring up the hill and those extra 21/2 furlongs could help to play to his strengths.

 

[Quevega]

Could the new course help bring in Gerri Colombe's stamina, he was really motoring up the hill and those extra 21/2 furlongs could help to play to his strengths.

Definitely should help him.

 

[opatcho]

Not convinced gerri handled the undulating track last season

Think haydock would be much more his bag

Flat track, soft ground

this is what I love about this forum, other angles and thoughts - this is something I haven’t looked into. Will re-watch his races and see if there’s anything to go off but decent shout

 

[Kautostar]

Could the new course help bring in Gerri Colombe's stamina, he was really motoring up the hill and those extra 21/2 furlongs could help to play to his strengths.

It will but not appearing to have the tactical pace could leave him too much to do again. Can see him staying on for a place

 

[archie]

I absolutely acknowledge that many are building books and that, this far out and with all the pitfalls that are there for these fragile creatures, the GDC price isn't attractive as a single bet. However, if they all get there fit and well, all prices will take at least a 50% haircut as part of the general book adjustment and, in my opinion as you very well know, every other horse is playing for second.

Recognise it. Do the El Fabiolo double and move on.

 

[Exar Essay]

I absolutely acknowledge that many are building books and that, this far out and with all the pitfalls that are there for these fragile creatures, the GDC price isn't attractive as a single bet. However, if they all get there fit and well, all prices will take at least a 50% haircut as part of the general book adjustment and, in my opinion as you very well know, every other horse is playing for second.

Recognise it. Do the El Fabiolo double and move on.

Can I clarify, is this still with free bets only or are you now advocating a cash spend?

 

[Lobos]

Can I clarify, is this still with free bets only or are you now advocating a cash spend?

Nah, all in balls and all:biggrin-new:

 

[archie]

Can I clarify, is this still with free bets only or are you now advocating a cash spend?

My bets are restricted to past winnings, free bets, b365 bet credits and returns from restricted free bets, eg football bet builders. I have a strong dislike of "bet ?5 and get a 'free' bet". They are absolutely not free bets and I'd only use the offer if I wanted the original bet anyway.

Essentially, I have a baseline balance for each account that I won't go below for ante-post. After Cheltenham I withdrew winnings down to that level and I occasionally have a big race bet. If it loses I have a new baseline. I bet for fun and have zero interest in building a book.

Everyone should feel comfortable betting in the way that suits them best, both financially and temperamentally. I sometimes get the feeling that the fear of missing out persuades some younger members to go against that. We old farts have all gone through that stage and mostly survived intact but there are occasional casualties and I'd hate to think that I made any contribution to that.

 

[jono]

Agree with plenty of the Gerri Colombe chat.
If it were my say i'd 100% start him off relatively low key.
The Many Clouds at Aintree at the start of December would be a perfect season opener, avoiding the big players in the division.

I think Willie may well send Galopin des Champs to the Tramore New Years day race, even though it does deviate from last years tried and tested route, just because the John Durkan is moved forward this season. But if he doesn't that would be another good race for Gerri.

Then come over to Newbury for the Denman Chase at the start of February.

Basically stay a little low key through the winter.
Even if it means coming across to England.
Which he did both last season.

And then show what he's got in the big one in March.
You have to be disappointed with his Brown Advisory run, even though we're talking about a horse who only finished second by a short head.
I've no doubt the trip and new course will suit better. Which is the hope.
As the concern is, based on last seasons evidence, how he'll travel through the race and whether he'll be out of it before they turn for home.

 

[opatcho]

I took another look at that RSA and Gerri wasn’t as clean as I remembered over the fences - he and that BANC reminds me of when champ wo, champ wasn’t great at all in that race and he won because the front two killed each other off

hmmm

 

[Captain Chris]

Agree with plenty of the Gerri Colombe chat.
If it were my say i'd 100% start him off relatively low key.
The Many Clouds at Aintree at the start of December would be a perfect season opener, avoiding the big players in the division.

I think Willie may well send Galopin des Champs to the Tramore New Years day race, even though it does deviate from last years tried and tested route, just because the John Durkan is moved forward this season. But if he doesn't that would be another good race for Gerri.

Then come over to Newbury for the Denman Chase at the start of February.

Basically stay a little low key through the winter.
Even if it means coming across to England.
Which he did both last season.

And then show what he's got in the big one in March.
You have to be disappointed with his Brown Advisory run, even though we're talking about a horse who only finished second by a short head.
I've no doubt the trip and new course will suit better. Which is the hope.
As the concern is, based on last seasons evidence, how he'll travel through the race and whether he'll be out of it before they turn for home.

I can understand this, but it wouldn't be my preference. I'd want to see him tested in 1 or even 2 proper grade 1 races before Cheltenham. Down Royal or the Betfair Chase to start, then could go to the Savills at Christmas before a prep like the Denman chase would be fine. I fear that running in weak races won't get the necessary experience into him of going at "grade 1 pace"
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