2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Hurricane fly]

Paddy Power have pushed Saint Roi out to 50/1 for the Ryanair. I think that's very generous. ​Others have cut him slightly to 25/1 which seems about right. He's run 157 RPR today which puts him in the frame. Appreciate there is limited upside as an 8yo rising 9, but I think the 50's is very generous.

I think Saint Roi is what I deem to be a "Grade 2" horse. If targeted he could pick up a decent early or end of season pot and dominate some of those small field Grade 2/3 races Ireland seem to have but when it comes to the big dances he is ridden for a place and that's his limit

 

[Eggs]

….interesting that PP are a long way the biggest IEP Arkle (10-1), yet shortest IEP Champion Hurdle (10/3). They seem to have a firm opinion of where he’s heading.

 

[darlojim]

….interesting that PP are a long way the biggest IEP Arkle (10-1), yet shortest IEP Champion Hurdle (10/3). They seem to have a firm opinion of where he’s heading.

Over the past few days, my mind has changed as to where Con Hill will go next season, and I now feel that he may stay hurdling. The way Hendo spoke to Lydia on RTV extra I just got that impression from the way he was talking. He was saying that staying hurdling wasn't 'the boring option' and that there are some brilliant hurdle races to be won throughout the season. I've invested quite a bit in related doubles (Con hill Arkle with others for champ hdle etc.) but I now may go the other way with Con hill for the Champ hdle with horses for the Arkle and Turners.

There are a couple of scenarios if that were the case..

* I think Barry Connell would 100% send Marine to the Arkle (as he said at Cheltenham, prior to his 'all options are open' comment. In my mind, this meant that he would look at where Con Hill was going before committing fully)

* Would Willie be happy to have state man in the Champ Hdle again? Along with a year older Vauban (likely still short of being good enough) He has said a number of times that the way State Man hurdles is difficult to find so would likely mean he ain't going chasing anytime soon with the great irish G1 hurdles to be won throughout the season.

*Would Willie throw another dart at the hurdling route with Impaire Et Passe if Con hill was to stay hurdling? I think this would be highly unlikely as:
- they've always referred to him as a big scopey horse
- David Casey had no doubt in his mind that 2 and half was his optimum trip
- Willie's usual MO is to go for the easiest/most winnable race - This means that chasing would have to strongly come into the reckoning. There is nothing in the 2m4 division that I could see troubling IEP if he went that route, providing he takes to fences.

As Eggs has pointed out, IEP is a standout for the Arkle with PP, but as we know, market moves from PP/BF can unexpectedly sway potential routes and I wouldn't fully rule out the potential that IEP could go that way, we know the Munir/Souede combo love that 2m division.


Ohhhh and one more point which I've mentioned previously.. After Nick Rocketts win at the Fairyhouse festival, he said IF he was to go to Punchestown aswell, he would likely go up to 3m to avoid Impaire Et Passe.

Now if I were in Willies mind :cupcake: and if I thought that Impaire could be a champion hurdle horse next season, I would be putting him in the 2 miler at punchestown against Marine Nationale to see if he has the credentials against the best 2 miler currently in Ireland to warrant going that route next season.


Just a summer to dwell over it I assume! :applouse:​

 

[Odin]

….interesting that PP are a long way the biggest IEP Arkle (10-1), yet shortest IEP Champion Hurdle (10/3). They seem to have a firm opinion of where he’s heading.

On a related note, I noticed that Unibet have taken positions on two of Nicky's better horses:

Stand out 7/4 Champion Hurdle for Constitution, joint shortest 6/4 he goes Arkle
Second longest 10/1 Champion Chase for Jonbon, shortest 9/2 he goes Ryanair

Would love to know if either bookie is giving prices based on a steer they've had. Really hope Unibet are right for my betting plans...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

* I think Barry Connell would 100% send Marine to the Arkle (as he said at Cheltenham, prior to his 'all options are open' comment. In my mind, this meant that he would look at where Con Hill was going before committing fully)

You believe Barry Connell will look to avoid Constitution Hill and run Marine Nationale wherever CH doesn't go ?
I can see your thinking but everything I've seen and read about the Supreme winner suggests they think he is very special, and as you say his form just keeps getting boosted, but I'd be convinced they will plot their own route based on what suits MN the best, I don't think they're scared of CH, he's probably not even in their thinking.

I know RPRs are a contentious issue for many in here but the 158 MN was given now looks incredibly low and could well get a revisit.
Inthepocket was give 150 in the Supreme, he then wins an Aintree G1 comfortably with Rachel having no whip (regardless of our views on whether this assists their performance) and is given 148.
Luccia's Exeter performance of 142 is 4lb better than her run on Friday according to new ratings.
I'd love a Saxon Warrior or something with far greater knowledge on RPRs than me to convince me the 158 for MN was right....

 

[darlojim]

You believe Barry Connell will look to avoid Constitution Hill and run Marine Nationale wherever CH doesn't go ?
I can see your thinking but everything I've seen and read about the Supreme winner suggests they think he is very special, and as you say his form just keeps getting boosted, but I'd be convinced they will plot their own route based on what suits MN the best, I don't think they're scared of CH, he's probably not even in their thinking.

For me Ista, it went from Barry Connell calling him the 2024 Arkle winner to then 'all options are open' with regards to where they may target him next year. The only reason I see why he would now be open is due to Constitution Hill :/

Personally I've not given up hope that Facile Vega could turn the form around at Punchestown, providing Marine Nationale turns up which isn't guaranteed as they're going to have a close look at the ground and weather over the coming week.

 

[Odin]

Istabraq, I'm no Sax, but I'll have a go at explaining...

I think they've rated the Supreme about right. I personally would have added a couple of lbs for the ease with which Marine won, taking him to 160-161 but looking at the form of the race, they've basically said that Facile and IET ran to their December run ratings, which isn't implausible to me given the distances between them were fairly similar and IET jumped poorly like Xmas rather than well like the DRF. The race rating gives Diverge a 10lb improvement from the maiden hurdle (how much further can you realistically go?) and even gave Inthepocket a PB by a couple of lbs, which feels justified given the market support on the day.

In terms of the Aintree race, Strong Leader got 6 lengths closer to Inthepocket than at Cheltenham so that has to mark that race down slightly. Like you (from what I can tell from your post), I was unbelievably impressed with how the winner travelled through the race and would likely add a couple of lbs to his rating on that basis, but the race as a whole seems about right to me. If anything I'd argue it has been rated too highly given it has Pembroke running to within 1lb of his best and Hansard on a 20lb PB!

For me the RPRs only show what has been achieved, not what could have been achieved if fully ridden out etc and I always try to allow for a bit in that regard, which is obviously subjective and could explain the discrepancy you have with the ratings given.

 

[Odin]

For me Ista, it went from Barry Connell calling him the 2024 Arkle winner to then 'all options are open' with regards to where they may target him next year. The only reason I see why he would now be open is due to Constitution Hill :/

I also picked up on this and have been betting accordingly. It makes complete sense to avoid Constitution next year if it means they can win a Champion Hurdle and the way the form has worked out suggests they really could

 

[Exar Essay]

Istabraq Completely agree re Supreme RPRs. I said in the aftermath that 158 was too low. Couldn’t believe it wasn’t in the low 160s. Even more so now. Also, the recent supreme form boosts make it likely that Facile Vega is still a very good horse.

Inthepocket just upgraded to 150 for his Aintree, but still. Strong Leader rated just 3lbs higher (146) despite him having a much better run in second at Aintree.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Odin
Good post that, solid argument.
I guess my biggest issue is that good novices progress with each run, more experience helps, so if you (or anyone) thinks those behind Marine Nationale in the Supreme have ‘only’ run to their DRF marks then wouldn’t that suggest they disappointed at Cheltenham?

I can see the argument, and I understand your points, I guess what it comes down to my personal opinion on Marine National’s ability.
Always good to get a different perspective though….

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Personally I've not given up hope that Facile Vega could turn the form around at Punchestown, providing Marine Nationale turns up which isn't guaranteed as they're going to have a close look at the ground and weather over the coming week.

Yeah, I know how highly they rate Facile Vega and how much they liked his chances in the Supreme, but he’s run his race, it was just a devastating gear change after the last that did for him and I think that turn of pace shocked the FV camp.
I’m sure they still have high hopes for him…

 

[Saxon Warrior]

You believe Barry Connell will look to avoid Constitution Hill and run Marine Nationale wherever CH doesn't go ?
I can see your thinking but everything I've seen and read about the Supreme winner suggests they think he is very special, and as you say his form just keeps getting boosted, but I'd be convinced they will plot their own route based on what suits MN the best, I don't think they're scared of CH, he's probably not even in their thinking.

I know RPRs are a contentious issue for many in here but the 158 MN was given now looks incredibly low and could well get a revisit.
Inthepocket was give 150 in the Supreme, he then wins an Aintree G1 comfortably with Rachel having no whip (regardless of our views on whether this assists their performance) and is given 148.
Luccia's Exeter performance of 142 is 4lb better than her run on Friday according to new ratings.
I'd love a Saxon Warrior or something with far greater knowledge on RPRs than me to convince me the 158 for MN was right....

Istabraq

They like to base RPRs based on what horses they’ve beaten and by how far, which means the winner often has his/her figure worked out from a yardstick horse that ‘ran their race’ and finished maybe 3rd or 4th,

You would see the Supreme winner and 2nd upgraded if collateral form of those behind improves those horses ratings

Rating in this way can be trappy, you see a lot of races rated by

* picking a good form yardstick,
* saying he’s ran to form, to the exact same rating as his last run/best run
* then working everyone else’s race rating out from that

Not scientific, of course, as the “yardstick” horses picked don’t run exactly to the 1lb in each race in which they’re used in this way.

But then, all figures are flawed, and I don’t see RPRs as worse or better than Timeform or anyone else’s numbers, they are plenty good enough to use.

They are also the most freely available figures, hence why I use them, as a base for assessment of horses and races,

 

[Odin]

Odin
Good post that, solid argument.
I guess my biggest issue is that good novices progress with each run, more experience helps, so if you (or anyone) thinks those behind Marine Nationale in the Supreme have ‘only’ run to their DRF marks then wouldn’t that suggest they disappointed at Cheltenham?

I can see the argument, and I understand your points, I guess what it comes down to my personal opinion on Marine National’s ability.
Always good to get a different perspective though….

Don't get me wrong, I also think Marine Nationale is better than the RPR and I'd agree that the best horses improve as each run happens, but not every horse progresses with every run on RPRs because race circumstances don't always allow it. I'd argue that running to the horse's mark or slightly below it can be a very acceptable performance. A few examples...

Jonbon's as novice hurdler: 137 (Mdn), 149 (G2), 146 (G2), 151 (G1), 156 (G1)
Sir Gerhard as novice hurdler: 135 (Mdn), 157 (G1), 154 (G1), 139 (G1)
Appreciate It as novice hurdler: 140 (Mdn), 156 (G1), 150 (G1), 163 (G1)

I'd argue out of all those runs, only Sir Gerhard's fourth run (Punchestown Festival) was a disappointing run (some might argue Jonbon's third run at Haydock was also disappointing), but there wasn't a linear improvement from race to race for any of them across the season. Was Sir Gerhard winning the Bally a bit disappointing because his RPR was lower than at the DRF or was Appreciate It's performance at DRF disappointing or did he just do what he need to do to get the job done? Was Jonbon's performance superb because he put up a PB on RPRs when Constitution spanked him 20l? I'd say in all cases it's just the circumstances of the races and how the standard of the horses they faced ensured that different RPRs were given. For example, Jonbon's had to be higher to allow for Constitutions freak performance. By the same token, when similar horses are facing each other, it makes sense to anchor around those differences as known form lines and let everything else fall into place right?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Not often I see massive value in the ante post markets but I stumbled across the Stayers market this morning and saw Good Time Jonny had been pushed out to 50/1 with Sky.
He would have gone very close yesterday, even with top weight, had he not met repeated trouble up the straight and is looking very progressive having hacked up in the Pertemps.
I’ve not seen/heard any post race comments so for all I know he could be going back over fences but if he stays over timber he’d have to go down the graded route now surely.
And Pertemps winners have a recent habit of going on to G1 success, age doesn’t look any barrier for the Stayers, GTJ will be 9 next March.
50/1 just looks standout to me…

 

[HesTheOne]

Mister Coffey ran a blinder in the grand National. He’s still a novice and was 3rd in this years NHC.The GN is the main target again confirmed Nicky. I wonder could he follow the same path and run in the NHC again.. although age isn’t on his side I’m assuming he still meets qualification criteria for the race..

from what I see from both this years Brown Advisory and NHC he could be a decent 2nd season novice if a big enough price was offered, but I don’t see him priced up anywhere.

 

[PresentingPercy]

Mister Coffey ran a blinder in the grand National. He’s still a novice and was 3rd in this years NHC.The GN is the main target again confirmed Nicky. I wonder could he follow the same path and run in the NHC again.. although age isn’t on his side I’m assuming he still meets qualification criteria for the race..

from what I see from both this years Brown Advisory and NHC he could be a decent 2nd season novice if a big enough price was offered, but I don’t see him priced up anywhere.

He was a second season chaser this season and still couldn't shake his novice tag. Don't think there's anything that rules him out for next years NHC. He's a decent handicapper if they manage him properly, nothing more IMO

 

[BigChaang]

Nicky Henderson said I suppose we could put him in a lower grade race and get him his win .
But didn't sound to me , like that's what he wanted to do , B.T.W. Mister coffey @ 40-1 . with Corals .
Edit . just seen - 50-1 . betfred.

 

[Nwfb89]

Looking some odds earlier and was flicking through the gold Cup and noticed the real whacker available at 25s with coral or 20s available with cash out, is this good value for the 3m novice winner? Alot of the time they shoot to the head of the market for the folling seasons gold cup, most recent years from memory the 3m novice winners like L'homme presse, monkfish, champ, topofthegane, presenting Percy, might bite, these all ranged from around 6s to 10s from what I can remember, I know plenty will say gerri colombe under peformed at chelt and maybe he did or maybe he doesn't handle the undulating track so well so that's why he didn't travel so sweetly as what he did at Aintree, don't think there's any rush to back the real whacker as he's finished for the season I think as didn't see him entered up at punchestown but certainly one of think about over the summer I reckon

 

[HesTheOne]

Looking some odds earlier and was flicking through the gold Cup and noticed the real whacker available at 25s with coral or 20s available with cash out, is this good value for the 3m novice winner? Alot of the time they shoot to the head of the market for the folling seasons gold cup, most recent years from memory the 3m novice winners like L'homme presse, monkfish, champ, topofthegane, presenting Percy, might bite, these all ranged from around 6s to 10s from what I can remember, I know plenty will say gerri colombe under peformed at chelt and maybe he did or maybe he doesn't handle the undulating track so well so that's why he didn't travel so sweetly as what he did at Aintree, don't think there's any rush to back the real whacker as he's finished for the season I think as didn't see him entered up at punchestown but certainly one of think about over the summer I reckon

Yea I’m warm to him he’s a super jumper and looks like he can go the distance. His last 3 runs have all been at Cheltenham and form reads 111 so his ability and course performances are hard too ignore. One thing is the division does look quite strong and he has a few very nice horses ahead of him to beat.

Will definitely end up as a selection but not a A team player at the minute for the GC but things can change.

currently I’d see it as
A Team: GDC, BMG, Shishkin
B Team: Gerri C, Real Whacker

 

[Hurricane fly]

While the Real Whacker won the nature of the finish with Gerri Colombe closing with every stride puts in doubt whether or not he stays.

When Indo got caught by Chanp its was obvious to my eye that he idled but I didn't get the same impression with RW.