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2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

Carnage at Taunton said:
I would be interested in prices last March for the first three home in the Arkle and BANC .
I know Jonbon was 10…. anyone know the rest?
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El Fabiolo - 33/1
Jonbon - 10/1
Saint Roi - 28/1 (got pushed out to 33/1 at a stage)

The Real Whacker - 50/1
Gerri Colombe - 33/1
Bronn - 40/1 (got pushed to 66/1 at a stage)
 
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Atlantic Viking said:
I meant obvious candidates, as was the case with RWF and GDM, there are of course a ton of possibles and one of those didn't win whilst the other was incredibly fortunate! I had Embassy Gardens in mind as another possible but his complete blowout in the RSA wasn't what I had in mind, even if he was strangely far from alone on that.
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I've put a line through him for the moment. His success came from a front running performance against nothing. Trainer's comments after the race are that he ran too free in the Bartlett. Not what I'd be looking for in a NHC horse. Of the ones who ran poorly, I'd give another chance to Favori De Champdou who loos like even the Bartlett might've happened too quick for him. Whilst not a second season chaser, he would be 9 next year and has experience on his side. Of the others, I think most will be aimed over the 3mile trip. Affordale Fury would be interesting and might be campaigned to get further.
 
….Constitution Hill 4/6 Hills to win any novice Chase. That offer was 6-1 not long ago.

PP offer 33-1 he wins next seasons CC followed by GC a year later.
 
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Eggs said:
….Constitution Hill 4/6 Hills to win any novice Chase. That offer was 6-1 not long ago.

PP offer 33-1 he wins next seasons CC followed by GC a year later.
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Those odds are silly. But we had plenty of time to take the 6/1. We know very little else since that 6/1 was put up other than him winning the Churdle at 1/3. The owner and trainer gave as much clue pre Chelts as they have since.
 
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The 4/6 is just stupid because you could back the individual races for a much higher return. And I'm not sure you'd bother including the NH Chase either :biggrin-new:
 
Benjy23 said:
The 4/6 is just stupid because you could back the individual races for a much higher return. And I'm not sure you'd bother including the NH Chase either :biggrin-new:
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I’d rule out the BANC personally too.
 
IF Constitution Hill does end up over fences only two races interest me, the Arkle & the Champion Chase. I see no reason why he needs to be stepped up in trip, he's full of speed, and whilst he will stay further, I have no doubt about that, I just don't think it needs to be in his first season over fences.

The only way they step him up, IMO, is if his jumping is not slick, but then again he could also revert back to hurdles off the back of this too.
 
IMO he's going chasing and the only Novice Chase he'd run in is The Arkle so ignoring the 'Any Novice Race' odds was easy. It'll be Arkle or Champion Chase and I've bet him that way and taken bigger odds on State Man in the Champion Hurdle as a result. This is going to run and run and run and I took the view that unless I made a choice now then I'd not have a bet in the Champion Hurdle or the Champion Chase or the Arkle until at least after the Game Spirit chase as I don't believe connections will make a decision until that time unless of course he jumps like a snooker table at Doncaster/Kempton/Sandown. A risk I know but one worth taking at current odds in my view as he'll be long odds on whatever chase he turns up in and the Champion Hurdle odds for others will evaporate. I for one absolutely love situations like this where you have to look into that crystal ball and go with your gut. Bring it on.
 
I can see an angle where if the Gold Cup 2025 is their aim they may consider the Turners to be fair. I'd have it as the least likely of the four races (Arkle, CC and CH) I could realistically see him running in in 2024 though.
 
Benjy23 said:
I can see an angle where if the Gold Cup 2025 is their aim they may consider the Turners to be fair. I'd have it as the least likely of the four races (Arkle, CC and CH) I could realistically see him running in in 2024 though.
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If it were Willie maybe but Nicky??? Not for me at all.
 
Lobos said:
If it were Willie maybe but Nicky??? Not for me at all.
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I'm not sure there's much precedent of Henderson's Champion Hurdle winners route to a Gold Cup? Was just a guess at a logical route, gradual step up in trip. Maybe me and Willie think more alike :anonymous:
 
Benjy23 said:
I'm not sure there's much precedent of Henderson's Champion Hurdle winners route to a Gold Cup? Was just a guess at a logical route, gradual step up in trip. Maybe me and Willie think more alike :anonymous:
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:biggrin-new:Was thinking more of Nicky's love and ability to train winners in the Arkle and Champion Chase against the very few runners/winners he's had in the Turners. He'll stick to what he knows best.
 
I also think he'll stick to two miles but unfortunately that still leaves me with ch, cc and arkle to choose between !
 
jack1092 said:
he's short with skybet 8/1
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Found a Fifty ?

I'd say if you like him then 8's is fair about him TWAR. Don't think Hills will be much bigger if at all. Could go for multiple races. That's the sort of TWAR price I'd take if I fancied one.
 
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My thoughts on Constitution Hill if he goes novice chasing:

Firstly - The Arkle is so much more prestigious than the Turners, to me if he goes novice chasing he will go the Arkle.

Secondly - Nicky also prefers the Arkle over the Turners, he has only one the Turners once and that was with Chantry House which was the same year Shishkin won the Arkle.

Thirdly - The Arkle is on the Tuesday which is the same day that CH has won the Supreme and Champion Hurdle (on the same course) which would be a much swifter transition.

Fourthly - I think if they are looking to get the most out of the horse (number of different wins at Cheltenham) and go for the Champion Chase then Gold Cup it would make much more sense to go Arkle > CC > GC, than Turner > CC (down in trip) > GC. I very much doubt that the Ryanair will ever be in consideration for a horse like CHill so he will only go the CC or GC in open chase company


Arkle - 7
Champion Chase - 8
Gold Cup - 9
Gold Cup - 10
......
......
 
The debate will rage on and on.. he really could do with his own thread :biggrin-new:
 
HesTheOne said:
The debate will rage on and on.. he really could do with his own thread :biggrin-new:
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Yeah. We’ve not even got to Aintree yet and it’s giving me a headache, especially as I won’t be backing him for anything, just enjoying the ride of how good he could be.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Yeah. We’ve not even got to Aintree yet and it’s giving me a headache, especially as I won’t be backing him for anything, just enjoying the ride of how good he could be.
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If you aren't backing him for anything does that mean you aren't backing anything against him in several races either JM ?
 
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