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2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

I think where Constitution Hill runs at the 2024 Festival is a tough call, and no one can really be too strong in their opinion as it definitely will depend on other factors we do not yet know, or are yet to see.
He has many options of course.

I think though, that his situation is unique in that he is going chasing as a Champion hurdle winner, with a super high rating.
So this cancels out, or at least dilutes all the other stats like novices sticking to novice races and trainer's past preferred routes etc. IMO.

As things stand IMO the CC looks most likely on balance, but if facts/circumstances change then I'll likely change my mind.
There is no doubt he'll be entered, and if he's good enough in his first 2 starts then the talk will start to sway towards the CC option for sure.
His NRNB price for the Champion Chase will be interesting.
 
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I'm going to predict his race route:

1 - Either one of these: Doncaster (Dec)/Kempton (Nov)/Warick (Nov) - Novice Chase or be adventurous and go for the Henry VIII straight away at Sandown in December
2 - Waywood Lad (Xmas)
3 - Game Spirit (Feb)
4 - Arkle
5 - Maghull/Melling at Aintree or Celebration at Sandown

6 - Tingle Creek
7 - Desert Orcid / Clarence House
8 - Champion Chase
9 - Melling

10 - Tingle Creek
11 - King George
12 - Gold Cup
 
Winging The Last said:
I'm going to predict his race route:

1 - Either one of these: Doncaster (Dec)/Kempton (Nov)/Warick (Nov) - Novice Chase or be adventurous and go for the Henry VIII straight away at Sandown in December
2 - Waywood Lad (Xmas)
3 - Game Spirit (Feb)
4 - Arkle
5 - Maghull/Melling at Aintree or Celebration at Sandown

6 - Tingle Creek
7 - Desert Orcid / Clarence House
8 - Champion Chase
9 - Melling

10 - Tingle Creek
11 - King George
12 - Gold Cup
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I think that looks very much like the route Nicky would take if left to his own devices. I think Michael Buckley likes an Ascot runner so could see Noel Novices / Clarence House getting a go in year 1 and maybe Ascot Chase in Year 2.
 
Winging The Last said:
I'm going to predict his race route:

1 - Either one of these: Doncaster (Dec)/Kempton (Nov)/Warick (Nov) - Novice Chase or be adventurous and go for the Henry VIII straight away at Sandown in December
2 - Waywood Lad (Xmas)
3 - Game Spirit (Feb)
4 - Arkle
5 - Maghull/Melling at Aintree or Celebration at Sandown

6 - Tingle Creek
7 - Desert Orcid / Clarence House
8 - Champion Chase
9 - Melling

10 - Tingle Creek
11 - King George
12 - Gold Cup
Click to expand...

Couple of things:

Why would Hendo send the horse to open company then come back to novice company ?
Surely once he steps out of novice company he’s shooting for the stars ?
And the proximity of Tingle Creek and Christmas might sway his thinking here, he has wrapped many of his top horses in cotton wool over the years (particularly in recent years), 2m in early Dec and 3m over Christmas might not sit right in his thinking…
 
Hurricane fly said:
He did it with Altior to be fair
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Absolutely and after winning the Arkle with Altior he then stepped back into open company to win the Celebration Chase at Sandown where he stuffed Special Tiara who won the Champion Chase that year. That won't be lost on Nicky. Clearly Altior could have won the CC as a Novice.
 
Following on from that, Sprinter Sacre won the 2012 Arkle after prepping in the Game Spirit. That year Henderson's Finians Rainbow won the Champion Chase. SS would have walked all over him.


The more I think about it, the more I agree with Q that CH will go for the Champion Chase if hes as good over fences.
 
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Lobos said:
Absolutely and after winning the Arkle with Altior he then stepped back into open company to win the Celebration Chase at Sandown where he stuffed Special Tiara who won the Champion Chase that year. That won't be lost on Nicky. Clearly Altior could have won the CC as a Novice.
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Problem is - since then he's ruined Altior (his own words) by doing too much with him too soon (the race vs Cyrname first time out, which I think ruined both horses to be fair) and I imagine this will have a bigger bearing on the decisions he makes than the idea that Altior could have won CC as a Novice, which I agree with btw
 
Imo i possible think that a lot of people are assuming that con hill will be a better chaser than he is a hurdler, he's 175 over hurdles and i'd be suprised if he bettered that over fences. Imo when a horse gets rated over 170 as a hurdler thats a sign that thats their discipline that they excel at. I think hes a specialist hurdle who quite well may manage high 160s or even low 170 over fences but hurdling is where hes best at. Not many 170+ hurdlers have tried fences but those that have rated lower than their hurdle mark. Dawn run, night nurse, lanzerote to name just a few...im not saying he cant win an arkle, he can, but champion chase talk is a bit optimistic imo. He'll make a top class high 160s -170 ish chaser imo but hurdling is where he's a horse of a generation. Just an opinion of course...
 
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Not to downplay the achievement and approach to doing so (which should always be commended) too much but for me it's one thing stepping out in open company as a novice in English grade ones. But the Champion Chase is another story. And importantly up against the Irish.

With hindsight - It's alright saying Altior would have won the Champion Chase as a novice.
But if Douvan had of shown his best that day then it's a different story. 100%.

The race fell apart without him (Fox Norton and Sir Valentino behind)
The Sandown race was just as weak.

If the division does fall apart then who knows.
But I don't think they'll want to take on Energumene (regardless of age) if he shows no sign of decline.
El Fabiolo less so but he still looks incredibly progressive as a chaser.

I'm not sold on specific races 'ruining a horse' one bit.
But many do, Henderson being one of them.
Like Odin mentions the Altior vs Cyrname race.
I think the subsequent performances of Shishkin after the Energumene race could very well linger in his mind too
 
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Jono, imo the CC has absolutely fallen apart in the last two years and Energumene, whilst looking a brilliant winner on both occasions, has probably been flattered a little. The rain has come for him too so he has had everything in his favour. I wouldn't be afraid to take him on at all. As you say El Fabiolo is there too but it remains to be seen how strong the Novice Chase form is.
It's going to be very interesting indeed how next season pans out.
 
On a line through Jonbon, CH has El Fab covered.

I think the biggest problem is where is he going to get his jumping tested before stepping up to open company?

In a CC Mullins can send Dysart Dynamo off like the clappers, knowing Energumene likes that sort of pace and jumps brilliantly and it could realistically be CHs first test of his jumping.

shouldn't put him off if he schools well though
 
I think (personal view) that Buckley will win the hurdle/chase argument but Henderson will win the Arkle/CC argument. Arkle at 7. CC at 8. GC at 9. If they are going to get aggressive I feel it will be after a novice campaign, and if they went KG in 2024, there is nothing to stop them skipping the CC and going GC in 2025. By doing that, if for any reason they feel he doesn’t get the GC trip, he could still compete in the 2025 CC. But it will be easier to be aggressive and accelerate in his second year once they know his quirks (if any) over fences rather than in year 1 where there is an element of learning still to be done.
 
Always a Claimer said:
I think (personal view) that Buckley will win the hurdle/chase argument but Henderson will win the Arkle/CC argument. Arkle at 7. CC at 8. GC at 9. If they are going to get aggressive I feel it will be after a novice campaign, and if they went KG in 2024, there is nothing to stop them skipping the CC and going GC in 2025. By doing that, if for any reason they feel he doesn’t get the GC trip, he could still compete in the 2025 CC. But it will be easier to be aggressive and accelerate in his second year once they know his quirks (if any) over fences rather than in year 1 where there is an element of learning still to be done.
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There is no Hurdle/Chase argument????

Arkle is a very good GC 'prep'. He'll go GC at 8 if at all.

No idea where this King George theory has been slipped in by some??

That would be taking the piss :biggrin-new:
 
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I think there is. If Henderson had complete control
and Buckley was a silent owner, do you not think CH wins the next 3 or 4 Champion Hurdles? I do. So Henderson loses that one, but wins the Arkle vs CC one. As I said, my view.
 
Always a Claimer said:
I think there is. If Henderson had complete control
and Buckley was a silent owner, do you not think CH wins the next 3 or 4 Champion Hurdles? I do. So Henderson loses that one, but wins the Arkle vs CC one. As I said, my view.
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Absolutely not. No. He wants him to go Chasing. It's clear to see. I can see the Arkle argument. Nothing wrong with going that route but I'd love him to go CC and gain immortality status. All just my view of course :applouse:
 
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