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2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

Quevega said:
The comparisons to sprinter and Altior are a bit wushu washy. Neither of them won a champion hurdle and started chasing off 180.
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Sentiment will almost certainly make me stubborn and never admit to a horse being as good as Sprinter in Spring 2013 even if it were true.

He'll need to take to fences, it's not a given by any means.

But look at back at the top Arkle/CC winners over the past 10-12 years and it's fair to say even a conservative guess could see 10-12lb improvement for going over a fence. Henderson has form for this particularly.

It's genuinely incredible​ what he could achieve if that's the case.

IF he takes to fencing that is.
 
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Quevega said:
The comparisons to sprinter and Altior are a bit wushu washy. Neither of them won a champion hurdle and started chasing off 180.
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Agree. To say Nicky hasn't sent any of his previous Champion Hurdlers chasing either is a little bit lazy as well as none of them started off in a point to point and a few of them had flat backgrounds so they were never going to be sent over fences. He's completely unique compared to all of Nicky's previous winners.
 
Quevega said:
If he’s as good over fences as hurdles
he’ll run in the champion chase.
might as well win another champion hurdle after novice chasing, than an arkle.
it’s a massive step down in class
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Yes if he's a fluent jumper I'd imagine they will run him in the game spirit and if he beats open company rivals with ease they'd surely be seriously considering the champion chase

He's not certain to take to fences brilliantly though, isn't the biggest and got beat in his P2P because of a jumping error

Be interesting to see how he goes
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Yes if he's a fluent jumper I'd imagine they will run him in the game spirit and if he beats open company rivals with ease they'd surely be seriously considering the champion chase

He's not certain to take to fences brilliantly though, isn't the biggest and got beat in his P2P because of a jumping error

Be interesting to see how he goes
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I've watched his PTP back and don't understand the negativity. He outjumped the winner until the final fence when looking as though he'd cruise up. He looked to jump it fine but the jockey was totally unbalanced on him for some reason and CH understandingly skewed on landing and the Jockey nearly came out the side door. He virtually came to a standstill but to his credit rallied and nearly got back up at the line.
 
Quevega said:
If he’s as good over fences as hurdles
he’ll run in the champion chase.
might as well win another champion hurdle after novice chasing, than an arkle.
it’s a massive step down in class
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If they are serious about ditching hurdles to make a big splash over fences, then the Champion Chase would be a massive splash for a Champion Hurdler winning Novice Chaser to attempt.

For me thats the route they should go, if ditching hurdles.

There nowt in GB thats likely to be good enough in 2M open Chases.

Only a 10yo Energumene, plus El Fab to possibly come over and test in in March.
 
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Agree Sax. I really hope it happens. Even if he didn't stay the GC distance, a Supreme, Champion Hurdle and a Champion Chase in consecutive seasons will be unbelievable and probably never repeated.
 
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Lobos said:
Agree Sax. I really hope it happens. Even if he didn't stay the GC distance, a Supreme, Champion Hurdle and a Champion Chase in consecutive seasons will be unbelievable and probably never repeated.
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Yep,

Make History on the way trying to make more History.
 
People grossly underestimating El Fabiolo in my view. Huge engine.

Neither Henderson nor Buckley has given the slightest hint that the QMCC will be a target next season. Buckley only mentioned the Gold Cup and Henderson name-checked the Arkle before a QMCC.
 
archie said:
People grossly underestimating El Fabiolo in my view. Huge engine.

Neither Henderson nor Buckley has given the slightest hint that the QMCC will be a target next season. Buckley only mentioned the Gold Cup and Henderson name-checked the Arkle before a QMCC.
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Don't think anyone is underestimating him, its just that Constitution Hill is that good and if he improves further over fences no matter how good energumene or el fabiolo are it wont matter
 
archie said:
People grossly underestimating El Fabiolo in my view. Huge engine.

Neither Henderson nor Buckley has given the slightest hint that the QMCC will be a target next season. Buckley only mentioned the Gold Cup and Henderson name-checked the Arkle before a QMCC.
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I think people including myself are drawing the form line to the CC through Jonbon and comparing their respective speed/engines that way. Obviously fences are now in the way compared to the hurdling form line but it’s not too difficult to come to the conclusion CH could easily put it up to El Fab.

Consensus is there may only be 1 horse he has to prove himself against in the CC and it’s not inconceivable to draw a form line already - on what we know to date
 
But yea certainly not underestimating El Fab would 100% want both on my team for CC.
 
I have nailed my colours to the mast and backed at 11/4 for the Arkle. I flip flopped between him staying hurdling and chasing, but I am personally pretty convinced they will go chasing. And I am also pretty convinced that Henderson will play it safe and go Arkle and not QMCC. Regardless of what people say about the depth of the races, it is a tried and tested route to keep novice chasers and in novice events - with very few exceptions. Once a year has gone by as a chaser, there is nothing to stop them stepping him up in trip and going for the Gold Cup in 2 years time - going Arkle doesn't necessarily mean a year of delay until the ultimate target.
 
archie said:
People grossly underestimating El Fabiolo in my view. Huge engine.

Neither Henderson nor Buckley has given the slightest hint that the QMCC will be a target next season. Buckley only mentioned the Gold Cup and Henderson name-checked the Arkle before a QMCC.
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I think only Barry O'Connell would come out and state the Queen Mother as a target for 2024, for a horse yet to jump a fence under rules. :onthego:
It would be jumping the gun a little and a little disrespectful towards the current crop of open 2 mile graded chasers, which you've hinted at.
Although El Fabiolo has only ever ran in novice company and the arguable form lines show Constitution Hill to be some way ahead IMO.

If and when they confirm he goes chasing they'll still stick to the race by race mantra and the arkle will be the original pencilled in plan, but if as expected he mullers everything by miles and runs in open company before Cheltenham in something like the Game Spirit then they will definitely look at both races and then decide.

IMO they will go Champion chase if he has looked as good as ever.
He's clearly on another level.

The caveat would be if Energumene gets whacked (without obvious excuses) by one of the second season chaser's (like El Fab), but that clash is unlikely before March.
 
I get he's not done it at Cheltenham but Henderson has previously ran his 2 mile novice chaser in open company pre festival. The Irish challenge at the festival being the obvious difference.

But I agree with Archie's interpretation of what was said. Arkle 2024, Champion Chase 2025 looks Henderson's opinion.
 
I just hope he stays sound.

FWIW I think the Arkle is least likely race for him next year. I backed him for the Gold Cup on Saturday after the festival but in hindsight think the Champion Chase is most likely target. If he can jump fences then they prove that over two miles and leave proving he can stay until 2025. Buckley is living the dream and I don't think an Arkle would cut it. I dont disagree that Hendo would prefer a more cautious route.
 
QMCC/Melling Chase / KG / GC

Would seem a sensible route
 
Old Vic said:
I just hope he stays sound.

FWIW I think the Arkle is least likely race for him next year. I backed him for the Gold Cup on Saturday after the festival but in hindsight think the Champion Chase is most likely target. If he can jump fences then they prove that over two miles and leave proving he can stay until 2025. Buckley is living the dream and I don't think an Arkle would cut it. I dont disagree that Hendo would prefer a more cautious route.
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How many novices have run in the QMCC let alone won it?

Nicky will be desperate to protect Constitution Hill for as long as humanly possibly because he's a once in a lifetime horse.
 
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Hurricane fly said:
QMCC/Melling Chase / KG / GC

Would seem a sensible route
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Similarly Arkle/Melling/KG/GC :encouragement:

What a horse if he could do either of the two combinations, let alone having already destroyed the 2m Hurdling division. I'm not convinced I(we?) realise how lucky I am to be dreaming these things about a horse...
 
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