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2023 Turners Novices Chase

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I think it's time for us to start putting our thoughts and verdicts on the likely results now a lot of these races have taken shape.

For this race I think we are probably seeing the best novice chaser of the season, and he should win comfortably IMO.

The most likely runners.

Mighty Potter
Appreciate It
Banbridge
Stage Star ?
Balco Coastal
Adamantly Chosen

For context - I've ended up with a book on this race and cannot lose :highly_amused::sleeping:

Mighty Potter is the best novice because I believe he could run in any of the novice chase races and he'd go close in all of them.
He has more class than any other novice I've seen this season.
And is very much a Gold cup type horse, one of the classier types as opposed to the stayer types like Gerri Colombe.
I expect Gordon to campaign both towards the main event and just see how they get on.

The caveat on Mighty Potter is that I see something a little fragile in his jumping, and this is probably the only thing that would get him beat, a race ending mistake or a really bad jump or two and it brings the others into it. Or, an obviously "chronic" under performance for whatever reason. (save your breath with his supreme run as I'm not having it personally, he hit the third last and it ended his race, simple as that for me)

The doubts I have over his jumping might be because I've had money on him each time he's ran over fences though, and was watching like a hawk :highly_amused: - So probably a little sensitive to every prop on landing or when he shortens and pops the odd one.

The rags........:triumphant:

Appreciate It looks exactly what he is, a solid, admirable and workmanlike horse that jumps perfectly fine, but is probably living off his supreme win from 2 years ago (not a very deep race either). Based on his form since then he has about 10lbs to find on the day and I doubt he's capable of that now, unless he gets lucky.

Banbridge is just not that good is he ? - the Drinmore was the ground ! and then in Dublin it was the distance !

Now the mantra is that if he gets his ground and his distance and a handjob off his groom then he's got a 7-2 chance of winning.:barbershop_quartet_member:
I think he's just got a a bit to find and is unlikely to find it. His price is currently fucking shite in comparison to Appreciate It.
His best chance is getting into a great rhythm, jumping a perfect round and others making mistakes.

The 2 British horses could actually do better than their prices suggest and Balco Coastal will be popular if Gerri Colombe has won the previous day.
Stage Star in particular could be the one that has the biggest amount of improvement in him.
I wouldn't put anyone off a daily related each way double with him and Datsalrightgino in the Plate.

Stage Star may actually run in the BANC I suppose.

Adamantly Chosen is very consistent and could easily pick up a place if one or two misfire, but it'd be a shock if he were to win.

I do think they are all capable of winning the race, which sounds like a Kop out (and it most certainly is), but Mighty Potter is the only one who I could see still winning if things don't go perfectly, and all the others need things to go perfectly and not so well for their rivals.
 
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They were absolutely convinced appreciate it was there best novice chaser before the Irish arkle

Finally gets to go up in trip, which he very much looked like he needed as they were going a stride to fast for him at Leopardstown

He's the best horse mighty potter will run against this season

For all he's looked impressive he's not beaten anything really

Can see him putting it up to potter

If they offered a match bet between appreciate it and banbridge I'd be interested as think he'd beat him handily

Should be clear second favourite

Think balco coastal will be the other one to fill the places, he seems to have improved quite a bit for a fence and will prefer going left handed but perhaps not quite at this level
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
They were absolutely convinced appreciate it was there best novice chaser before the Irish arkle

Finally gets to go up in trip, which he very much looked like he needed as they were going a stride to fast for him at Leopardstown

He's the best horse mighty potter will run against this season

For all he's looked impressive he's not beaten anything really

Can see him putting it up to potter

If they offered a match bet between appreciate it and banbridge I'd be interested as think he'd beat him handily

Should be clear second favourite

Think balco coastal will be the other one to fill the places, he seems to have improved quite a bit for a fence and will prefer going left handed but perhaps not quite at this level
Click to expand...

They were wrong though.
Appreciate it is the James Milner of horse racing.

I agree he should be second Fav though:encouragement:
 
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Quevega said:
Stage Star may actually run in the BANC I suppose.
Click to expand...

The latest Owners Group Communications from Paul Nicholls:

"I hope to have a positive plan regarding which race we are likely to aim for at Cheltenham in the coming days."

(This was Tuesday 28th February)

Previous Comms suggested that Turners was most likely. But BANC was still a possibility if ground was quick
 
Leman14 said:
The latest Owners Group Communications from Paul Nicholls:

"I hope to have a positive plan regarding which race we are likely to aim for at Cheltenham in the coming days."

(This was Tuesday 28th February)

Previous Comms suggested that Turners was most likely. But BANC was still a possibility if ground was quick
Click to expand...

He'd be mad to go BANC imo. The Turner's looks perfect for him the way he won on trials day and the ground then wasn't testing.
 
Leman14 said:
The latest Owners Group Communications from Paul Nicholls:

"I hope to have a positive plan regarding which race we are likely to aim for at Cheltenham in the coming days."

(This was Tuesday 28th February)

Previous Comms suggested that Turners was most likely. But BANC was still a possibility if ground was quick
Click to expand...

He's below 20s on exchanges for BANC, having been available at 40-50s last week so people maybe taking a chance given the weather forecast.

I think he'd run a big race in either but would have a better chance in the BANC because the oppo looks weaker.
 
It'll be an odd one going 3 miles for the first time at the Fez.
 
Loads of stamina in his breeding. Was a proper test last time and he certainly wasn't stopping. Think he'd stay 3m on spring ground no problem.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
He's below 20s on exchanges for BANC, having been available at 40-50s last week so people maybe taking a chance given the weather forecast.

I think he'd run a big race in either but would have a better chance in the BANC because the oppo looks weaker.
Click to expand...

Not sure it does FM. Unbeaten fav and a 2 time Fez winner versus a horse that flopped at the Fez last year and a 9 year old Arkle reject.
 
NB - Stage Star also has an entry in the "Plate" - but that's not been mentioned by Nicholls in any communications. Only the Turners and BANC have been mentioned.
 
Leman14 said:
NB - Stage Star also has an entry in the "Plate" - but that's not been mentioned by Nicholls in any communications. Only the Turners and BANC have been mentioned.
Click to expand...

Don't the members have any say/input at all re which race ??

Looks a decent opportunity in the Plate imo
 
Lobos said:
Yep. Wouldn't want him to get into a scrap with Gerri. Let him bowl along in front again and put pressure on Potters jumping.
Click to expand...

I don't think MP has a weakness in the jumping dept. He pecked on a couple of occasions at Fairyhouse but they weren't exactly mistakes.

i had it in my head that the Turners is stronger than the BANC, but then when you start going through them it maybe isn't, as you rightly point out.

Out of interest how many novice chasers do we think will line up in the 4 races? I'd have the over/under at 24.
 
Lobos said:
Don't the members have any say/input at all re which race ??

Looks a decent opportunity in the Plate imo
Click to expand...

No. There are 3,000 Shares, so it would be a logistical nightmare.
We'll leave it to those that (should) know best...
 
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