2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

Much like the Ballymore, this race is a right puzzle for me now, after the weekend.....well it was before to be honest. I was hoping the weekend might help.
When i look at the betting i can see a few fancied ones possibly stepping up in trip.
When i look at the Ballymore i can see the opposite.
GW seems to be swaying towards the Bally after trainer comments, but ive seen that before!!
Think im now leaving this till final decs.

 

[charlie]

The Royal Bond form is good form.
If you want to interpret it differently, crack on.

I agree he doesn't deserve to be favourite though.
And he could get beat in the supreme for sure.

Hence my use of 'how good' :witless::beaten:

It was clearly good, buts its priced up as top quality form, which I think we all know flatters him.

Il Etait Temp is a much better bet at the current prices IMO.

 

[Quevega]

Hence my use of 'how good' :witless::beaten:

It was clearly good, buts its priced up as top quality form, which I think we all know flatters him.

Il Etait Temp is a much better bet at the current prices IMO.

:highly_amused: apologies charlie, didn't read it well enough.
Obviously the interpretation you used was the one people would use to crab. I don't fully go along with that of course.

And yes I agree on prices.
Open race though now, although I don't agree with some pundits bringing the UK novices into play more.
Looks more like the Irish have even more players.
But you never can be too sure I suppose.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I doubt many Supreme winners have come through Exeter on their way to Festival success but Nemean Lion is entered in the same listed hurdle race as Lucia on Sunday, the chances of Kerry Lee training a Supreme winner are remote but there's no way this one should be the price he is.
3l behind Tahmuras in the Tolworth and was travelling as well as the winner before hitting 2 out and making a mess of the last, well worth watching the replay to see just how strongly he travelled.
I was hoovering the 999/1 on the machine and have some each way 100/1, every chance he doesn't go, just as much chance he come sup short if he does, but this is a mess of a race and looks right for an absolute boil over to me.
If anyone is as clueless as me in this now you could do worse than just take all the 500+ shots for a fiver for fun...

 

[Geegees]

Given the perceived lack of strong quality in the field then I am surprised there aren’t more willing to put a line through the FV run and still count him as the most likely winner.

Townsend clearly got it wrong and won’t be doing that again, FV been to Cheltenham, hurdles reasonably well and has beat IET previously although granted they could have also improved

Jumped on FV at 4/1 and expect him to be a lot shorter on the day. Do think he will probably be the horse in a lot of specials come the day

 

[Winging The Last]

FV back into favourite now on the exchanges this morning

 

[Odin]

Given the perceived lack of strong quality in the field then I am surprised there aren’t more willing to put a line through the FV run and still count him as the most likely winner.

Townsend clearly got it wrong and won’t be doing that again, FV been to Cheltenham, hurdles reasonably well and has beat IET previously although granted they could have also improved

Jumped on FV at 4/1 and expect him to be a lot shorter on the day. Do think he will probably be the horse in a lot of specials come the day

I feel the same way. Oddly, I'm actually more confident of him winning now given everything that's been said than I was before - which is great because I hadn't backed him previously! Also think the way he was ridden after the last ties in with darlojim lack of full fitness information quite clearly.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Given the perceived lack of strong quality in the field then I am surprised there aren’t more willing to put a line through the FV run and still count him as the most likely winner.

Townsend clearly got it wrong and won’t be doing that again, FV been to Cheltenham, hurdles reasonably well and has beat IET previously although granted they could have also improved

Jumped on FV at 4/1 and expect him to be a lot shorter on the day. Do think he will probably be the horse in a lot of specials come the day

Totally agree. We are getting a 400% increase in his price, with the security of NRNB.

The way Mullins has always talked about him has meant he's always been shorter in the market than he should have been but to go from 4/6 > 4/1, with the valid excuses, is quite surprising. :courage:

 

[Eggs]

….FV boosted to 4-1 NRNB in 365 Supreme market.

 

[Black Dog]

Cheers Eggs, had taken 7/2,didn't see this hidden away. So cashed out and rebacked.

 

[PaisleyClegg]

Is it bonkers to like Tahmuras for this, watched the Tolworth back and just looked like he needed to be in a better race. He's never faced decent opposition, but you can only beat what's put in front of you.

This appears to be a wide open race.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Is it bonkers to like Tahmuras for this, watched the Tolworth back and just looked like he needed to be in a better race. He's never faced decent opposition, but you can only beat what's put in front of you.

This appears to be a wide open race.

No, not I’m my opinion.
Think he’s a fair price for a horse we don’t really know how good he could be.
And it is wide open now.
And a definite runner, unlike some who are shorter.

 

[Dandrew99]

Fair few interesting ones entered at Naas on Sunday.

Tactical Move is one I've been waiting for, think he could be a lively Supreme outsider. American Mike, Doctor Bravo and Hunters Yarn also in there. 4th run for Hunters Yarn which could line him up for a handicap.

 

[Folski]

Is it bonkers to like Tahmuras for this, watched the Tolworth back and just looked like he needed to be in a better race. He's never faced decent opposition, but you can only beat what's put in front of you.

This appears to be a wide open race.

I can’t get over the price he is.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Still consider myself a rank amateur on all this, but to my eye and all things relative to the level we're talking about, FV isn't exactly the most pleasing of jumpers is he? Everyone is talking about the cut throat speed him and HD went at, but not much attention being paid to him looking a bang average jumper on the evidence thus far.

 

[Many Clouds]

Just watching this week's UTA, Johnny D says Facile Vega is on his list of horses he would never back again now, reckons he must have either blead or had a defibrillated heart.

 

[Liammet]

Just watching this week's UTA, Johnny D says Facile Vega is on his list of horses he would never back again now, reckons he must have either blead or had a defibrillated heart.

Then he goes and tips High Definition for the Supreme

Is he getting paid for this ?

Make a good comedian

 

[Kevloaf]

….FV boosted to 4-1 NRNB in 365 Supreme market.

Thanks for highlighting.

 

[Outlaw]

Then he goes and tips High Definition for the Supreme

Is he getting paid for this ?

Make a good comedian

Not watched it yet(never used to but comedy gold these days) but he couldn't have High definition for his life at the weekend so that is surprising.

 

[riccirich]

Just watching this week's UTA, Johnny D says Facile Vega is on his list of horses he would never back again now, reckons he must have either blead or had a defibrillated heart.

Horses who have had a defibrillated heart have time and time again come right back to form afterwards and never had the issue arise again, so doesn’t make a lot of sense for him to completely avoid if that is the reason. If the horse bled though then that can be a continuous issue.