2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Winging The Last]

I suppose the same could be said about IEP, he’d want to be up there over 2 miles.

Agree he would if was in the Supreme. However I'm predicting that GW will more likely go to the Supreme over IEP based on:

- Gaelic Warrior having only run over 2m and IEP having raced over further
- Willie saying that IEP can race over further
- And the exchanges all pointing to IEP most likely to go to the Ballymore over the Supreme


We'll from the comments from the stable open day both look most likely to be going the Ballymore. Willie needs to find some pace for FV from somewhere

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

Gaelic Warrior's 155 RPR makes him the only novice getting close to Il Etait Temps' rating.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Il Etait Temps with the RPR novice hurdle performance of the season - 158. Having consulted Sax's Race Planning thread, I can't find a Supreme winner in the last 10 years with a better RPR pre-race. My Tent Or Yours finished second in the Supreme and scored a 163 in that mammoth Betfair Hurdle win.

Il Etait Temps better than Constitution Hill as a novice on RPR's

I'm taking the lot of RPR's with a massive pinch of salt tbh this season (unless I need to use them in a debate :highly_amused.

The amount of adjustments they've made has dampened my enthusiasm for them if im being perfectly honest.

Even looked at times more than I normally would.

That said, I could just be doing all the above as confirmation bias, based on what I've backed already.

 

[darlojim]

A cut to his mouth and a lump on his leg for Vega, nothing too much to worry about though. They're awaiting results of some tests too

 

[Outlaw]

He was only about 6-8 lengths off the mad gallop and cruised up and kicked away.
One of the RPRs id concur with for sure.
Supreme should suit and I can’t see him being beaten unless there’s no pace.

Found it quite hard to weigh up his performance but he was keen as clap in the triumph as many picked up on & the time & clearly goes well in a proper run race now he settles. I know they’ve gone a bit quick up front HD/FV but those in behind will have to go at least that quick in a supreme so from IET point of view that’s a positive going forward.

 

[YoungHustler]

Given how clumsy High Definition is everyone would want to be as far away from him as possible.

I topped up on him. Big chance IF he gets round and I'm very happy to take the risk.

 

[CJW]

A cut to his mouth and a lump on his leg for Vega, nothing too much to worry about though. They're awaiting results of some tests too

Where's did you see this?

 

[YoungHustler]

Il Etait Temps better than Constitution Hill as a novice on RPR's

I'm taking the lot of RPR's with a massive pinch of salt tbh this season (unless I need to use them in a debate :highly_amused.

The amount of adjustments they've made has dampened my enthusiasm for them if im being perfectly honest.

Even looked at times more than I normally would.

That said, I could just be doing all the above as confirmation bias, based on what I've backed already.

I know what you mean about the RPRs. I do use them as a guide but loosely. I listened to a podcast recently and the pro gambler Mark Holder rubbished them saying punters should avoid!

 

[Lobos]

A cut to his mouth and a lump on his leg for Vega, nothing too much to worry about though. They're awaiting results of some tests too

Not the best news but at least a valid excuse

 

[darlojim]

Where's did you see this?

A friend

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I topped up on him. Big chance IF he gets round and I'm very happy to take the risk.

TBF if they can get him jumping his engine & stamina will give him every chance,not ideal going there off a unseat but lets be honest,Slevin shouldn't be falling off of him there,another day and he doesnt.
Best of luck with him for march.

 

[Folski]

Anyone else think Marine National form took a hit this weekend Irish Point taken off his feet and Grangeclare West didn’t help the Lawlors form which as a line to MN through Champ Kiely.

Really like him though but I think he’s more a ballymore horse than supreme.

 

[Kevloaf]

Anyone else think Marine National form took a hit this weekend Irish Point taken off his feet and Grangeclare West didn’t help the Lawlors form which as a line to MN through Champ Kiely.

Really like him though but I think he’s more a ballymore horse than supreme.

Hmm, no I don't think so.

Irish Point I think can't be taken seriously and just needs throwing out as a formline ..... getting creative for a handicap more likely than him running to the same ability he did when MN beat him

and Grangeclare West just might not be very good....



Trainer is adament he's a Supreme horse .... has been from a long way out. I worry he's not got experience of running in a proper race - he'll need to be pretty special to cruise into the Supreme and pick up whoever has already gone for home.


Hope he does though, I've got a massive soft spot for him :applouse:

 

[charlie]

Hmm, no I don't think so.

Irish Point I think can't be taken seriously and just needs throwing out as a formline ..... getting creative for a handicap more likely than him running to the same ability he did when MN beat him

and Grangeclare West just might not be very good....

Trainer is adament he's a Supreme horse .... has been from a long way out. I worry he's not got experience of running in a proper race - he'll need to be pretty special to cruise into the Supreme and pick up whoever has already gone for home.

Hope he does though, I've got a massive soft spot for him :applouse:

MN feels like a default favourite in the absence of anything strong. If he were one of Willies he'd be down the pecking order, but because he's trained by Barry Connell he's more of an enigma, which may have inflated peoples perception on his actual ability. He didn't achieve anything of note in three runs pre Royal Bond, but how good was that form in the RB? Picked off Irish Point who wants further, beat Champ Kiely who beat himself having raced way too freely and AD who delivered far too late into the race. It was a likeable performance and he did well, but it was a bunched finish vs likeable types, nothing more IMO. So I'd question the form, then I'd throw in the same concern you have about experience. He's also never been to Cheltenham. Add to that difficulty in off the pace tactics and suddenly you have 4 fairly big question marks about a horse thats 3/1. Well done to those who've got the fancy prices but as short as 2/1 with all those question marks is a terrible price IMO. He could win the race though, wide open. I'd love to be on him at 25's like some of you out there.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

MN feels like a default favourite in the absence of anything strong. If he were one of Willies he'd be down the pecking order, but because he's trained by Barry Connell he's more of an enigma, which may have inflated peoples perception on his actual ability. He didn't achieve anything of note in three runs pre Royal Bond, but how good was that form in the RB? Picked off Irish Point who wants further, beat Champ Kiely who beat himself having raced way too freely and AD who delivered far too late into the race. It was a likeable performance and he did well, but it was a bunched finish vs likeable types, nothing more IMO. So I'd question the form, then I'd throw in the same concern you have about experience. He's also never been to Cheltenham. Add to that difficulty in off the pace tactics and suddenly you have 4 fairly big question marks about a horse thats 3/1. Well done to those who've got the fancy prices but as short as 2/1 with all those question marks is a terrible price IMO. He could win the race though, wide open. I'd love to be on him at 25's like some of you out there.

I think that’s pretty much spot on.
But trainer said he’s going to win.
Is he always like that? Or should we take notice?
He said he wins the Ballymore too.

 

[Benjy23]

He's a terrible price at the moment and he won't even go off fav will he. Facile Vega almost certain to.

I'm fairly sure being trained by Barry Connell will ultimately make horses a bigger price than they should be rather than a shorter one though.

 

[Quevega]

The Royal Bond form is good form.
If you want to interpret it differently, crack on.

I agree he doesn't deserve to be favourite though.
And he could get beat in the supreme for sure.

 

[Kevloaf]

MN feels like a default favourite in the absence of anything strong. If he were one of Willies he'd be down the pecking order, but because he's trained by Barry Connell he's more of an enigma, which may have inflated peoples perception on his actual ability. He didn't achieve anything of note in three runs pre Royal Bond, but how good was that form in the RB? Picked off Irish Point who wants further, beat Champ Kiely who beat himself having raced way too freely and AD who delivered far too late into the race. It was a likeable performance and he did well, but it was a bunched finish vs likeable types, nothing more IMO. So I'd question the form, then I'd throw in the same concern you have about experience. He's also never been to Cheltenham. Add to that difficulty in off the pace tactics and suddenly you have 4 fairly big question marks about a horse thats 3/1. Well done to those who've got the fancy prices but as short as 2/1 with all those question marks is a terrible price IMO. He could win the race though, wide open. I'd love to be on him at 25's like some of you out there.

Yeah not disagreeing with the majority of that, I do have the fancy prices and wouldn't be surprised if he's not fav on the day either.

I just said I have a soft spot for him... and I'm seldom soft.

I wouldn't be so quick to slam the Royal Bond though...

 

[Irish Rugby]

I think Barry Connell is now more confident that his boutique training operation (his own words) has reached a level, after 4-5 years, to be able to compete at the top table. Believe he has a yard of just 25 horses.

Adding in the superlatives thrown at his young jockey, a cool head if ever there was one, it's quite an infections combination. Great to see another training operation now punching above it's weight.

That Racing TV interview on Sunday with Nick Luck at Leopardstown, explains all.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think Barry Connell is now more confident that his boutique training operation (his own words) has reached a level, after 4-5 years, to be able to compete at the top table. Believe he has a yard of just 25 horses.

Adding in the superlatives thrown at his young jockey, a cool head if ever there was one, it's quite an infections combination. Great to see another training operation now punching above it's weight.

That Racing TV interview on Sunday with Nick Luck at Leopardstown, explains all.

Well he's certainly confident!!