2023 Pertemps Final

[BigChaang]

Just managed to access a friendly WH account with a view to backing Captain Conby but he is 14/1 (NRNB). Am sure I saw someone say he was 33/1. However, I've been drinking a fair bit over Xmas so it's entirely possible I imagined it...!

Still 25-1 in several places jrjr.

 

[Muswell]

He was 33 in shops today, im restricted but you can back all their prices in cash on the machines

 

[jrjr]

He was 33 in shops today, im restricted but you can back all their prices in cash on the machines

Thanks, Muswell, that's good to know, however, I've not placed a 'cash' bet in years and have serious doubts about my ability to actually hand over cold, hard, cash. I've managed to disassociate money (in real terms) to the numbers that appear on my laptop screen - it feels akin to playing a computer game with Monopoly money and allows me to bet more freely. Let's hope Mrs jrjr never clocks this post...

 

[Benjy23]

I cashed out with PP and backed him at 33s with Hills NRNB at 3 o'clock this afternoon. So it's a fairly recent change.

 

[Muswell]

Thanks, Muswell, that's good to know, however, I've not placed a 'cash' bet in years and have serious doubts about my ability to actually hand over cold, hard, cash. I've managed to disassociate money (in real terms) to the numbers that appear on my laptop screen - it feels akin to playing a computer game with Monopoly money and allows me to bet more freely. Let's hope Mrs jrjr never clocks this post...

Me neither but needs must

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I cashed out with PP and backed him at 33s with Hills NRNB at 3 o'clock this afternoon. So it's a fairly recent change.

There's a few had a serious haircut in a few races by the looks of it. I think their traders have looked again at the NRNB prices and readjusted (downwards of course). :apologetic:

 

[Benjy23]

There's a few had a serious haircut in a few races by the looks of it. I think their traders have looked again at the NRNB prices and readjusted (downwards of course). :apologetic:

In fairness they shouldn't be (joint) top price on any horse in any race at the moment, when the rest are only offering antepost terms. I'm surprised they held some of the prices for even a day.

 

[Studfarm254]

Maxxum +18 to 138 in Ireland. Over to you, Mr BHA handicapper...

I won’t be going near any of the Irish handicappers at this stage. Elliot had 37 runners in the handicaps last year and must of seen 30 of those horses tipped up at some stage. He only managed 1 winner which was 50/1 shot commander of fleet and 2 placings. The English handicapper is having none of Elliot and his plot jobs these days

 

[JackieMoon33]

I won’t be going near any of the Irish handicappers at this stage. Elliot had 37 runners in the handicaps last year and must of seen 30 of those horses tipped up at some stage. He only managed 1 winner which was 50/1 shot commander of fleet and 2 placings. The English handicapper is having none of Elliot and his plot jobs these days

I was championing a few of his. I’m not sure it was the handicapper, more that a lot of his horses ran like stink at the festival. Too many to be true.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I won’t be going near any of the Irish handicappers at this stage.

Surely you'd make an exception for the Mullins 5yo novice who is clearly a G1 horse who has been campaigned to sneak in at the bottom of the County...

 

[robith]

I won’t be going near any of the Irish handicappers at this stage. Elliot had 37 runners in the handicaps last year and must of seen 30 of those horses tipped up at some stage. He only managed 1 winner which was 50/1 shot commander of fleet and 2 placings. The English handicapper is having none of Elliot and his plot jobs these days

tbh I think Elliot was caught out last year on his own hyperbole. He moved away from his MO of being pretty laser focused to turning up mob handed desperately trying to bag winners to make a point. I'm not sure you can make the case that his horses were unduly handicapped given his graded horses also ran very poorly

 

[Studfarm254]

Surely you'd make an exception for the Mullins 5yo novice who is clearly a G1 horse who has been campaigned to sneak in at the bottom of the County...

Absolutely lol! I’ll just be more cautious with Elliot this year, that’s his Martin pipe horse, that’s his Kim muir horse. Oh brilliant, can I back it to come last?

 

[nortonscoin200]

Surely you'd make an exception for the Mullins 5yo novice who is clearly a G1 horse who has been campaigned to sneak in at the bottom of the County...

Doesn't he need two more runs to qualify though?

 

[Exar Essay]

Doesn't he need two more runs to qualify though?

Am i being thick here? Who are we talking about?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Am i being thick here? Who are we talking about?

It was me who muddied the waters bringing Mullins County horses into the discussion.
Back to the Pertemps….

 

[JackieMoon33]

Not sure if it’s been posted on one of the many other threads but Gordon has entered up plenty at Warwick on Saturday

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards.../828509?authme

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Not sure if it’s been posted on one of the many other threads but Gordon has entered up plenty at Warwick on Saturday

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards.../828509?authme

Sire de Berlais the fascinating one, wins a G1 at Aintree had 3 subsequent runs with SPs of 22/1, 66/1 and 22/1 and his Irish mark is 6lb lower than his official mark going into that Aintree race.
He came here last year and was given a ride to take a pound or two off, expect the same again if he takes up the engagement…

 

[Coneygree15]

Anyone know if Barry Connell has said anything about this being My Immortal's actual target? I watched that qualifier back and to my reading of the race, you can upgrade that performance as he was the only prominent horse to finish in the first 7. The winner (Shewearsitwell) has won well since and I'm surprised My Immortal is still 25/1...unless of course the trainer has no intention of running him in the final itself?

 

[Quevega]

Anyone know if Barry Connell has said anything about this being My Immortal's actual target? I watched that qualifier back and to my reading of the race, you can upgrade that performance as he was the only prominent horse to finish in the first 7. The winner (Shewearsitwell) has won well since and I'm surprised My Immortal is still 25/1...unless of course the trainer has no intention of running him in the final itself?

Don't know.
I've backed him.
And he looks a contender, and likely to be one of the better handicapped horses, although may also suffer with a collateral rise.
Pretty sure he got put up 3lb for his qualifier to 133 and got a subsequent 1lb after shewearsitwell won again, So Irish mark 134.

I did notice a novice chase entry but never took it up, and nothing since.
Hopefully he's having a nice break with his mate Marine, in the bahama's eating special grass.
You'd think if fit and well he'd bring him over with his other runners and lat him take his chance.

 

[Coneygree15]

Thanks Quevega. I'm of a similar mindset and 25/1 looks a generous price, because I went through the Pertemps qualifiers this morning and so far it's an absolutely RANK handicap hurdle. There'd be plenty better run in both the UK and Ireland during the normal season.

The only horses qualified at the moment that could be improving well ahead of the handicapper are Maxxum (obviously), My Immortal and Captain Morgs (who seems to have unlocked a new level of form stepping up to 3 miles, although clearly exposed at shorter trips). Everything else looks pretty uninspiring, albeit if Mullins did actually run Shewearsitwell she'd of course merit respect.

There's only 5 qualifying races left and none have a stellar record for the final, so given the rule changes I think it's fair to start taking a position, as I'm not sure the general muggy betting public have clocked on.

Maxxum probably hacks up mind you!