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2023 Novice Hurdlers

Outlaw said:
Relies on what happens tomorrow but "In The Pocket" does nothing in front and cantered all over the runner up likewise, I hope he goes Ballymore.
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You'll probably do the times but the Nathaniel looked strongly run to me, and therefore Good Land & Sandor to a lesser extent should be upgraded, the others that were up with the pace seemed to drop away.

I think the juvenile race was also quickly run so should upgrade both mares for that as well I reckon. One proved she can still be competitive despite head banging all the way around, the other showed she has some stamina.

Arkle also looks real championship pace and makes El Fabiolo a worthy Favourite ahead of Jonbon IMO, probably means with a better judged ride Dysart Dynamo can't be totally ruled out as he looks like he could go slower if he wanted.

3 races at proper championship pace so looks very strong form.
 
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Quevega said:
You'll probably do the times but the Nathaniel looked strongly run to me, and therefore Good Land & Sandor to a lesser extent should be upgraded, the others that were up with the pace seemed to drop away.

I think the juvenile race was also quickly run so should upgrade both mares for that as well I reckon. One proved she can still be competitive despite head banging all the way around, the other showed she has some stamina.

Arkle also looks real championship pace and makes El Fabiolo a worthy Favourite ahead of Jonbon IMO, probably means with a better judged ride Dysart Dynamo can't be totally ruled out as he looks like he could go slower if he wanted.

3 races at proper championship pace so looks very strong form.
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Yep just ran through them, I'll tell folk one thing it didn't start on yielding and it definitely wasn't soft in places. Good to yielding(perfect Chelt ground mind) at worst those first 3 races.

Twister horse had to do that on the front as he doesn't appear to have tactical pace and just gallops so went as quick as he could for as long as he could. Good Land and co have done the circuit within 2L length of the juveniles(very decent considering this is always a staying race), but been considerably slower from 2 out. The 3m hcap was sedate throughout even with the bit of rain(25L+ slower on circuit) vs both but fastest of the 3 races from 2 out which will have an above average finishing %. For me Goodland best chance would be in the AB(well aware he's not in it), has a bit of tactical speed, stays very well and will prob be the quickest horse in the race and whether it's truly run or not he'd be versatile. In the Ballymore whilst he'd have a reasonable chance he'd be reliant on it being very true run race as be 2/3 in there who have a turn of foot at least as good if not better IMO.

Lossie lost nothing in defeat, the error and making up ground from 2 out when they've really quickened is pretty impressive, be interesting what they raise the 3rd as could end up similarly rated to Comfort Zone by the time he's assessed and reassessed by our lot as winner got to be about 140 and leaves him 127+ surely before BHA get stuck in.

Chasers.
Yeah the Arkle trial obvs looked very strong prior and all depends on how folks rate Jonbon vs the winner, the circuit time was quick(30L+ vs the hcap rained prior**) with there being less than 2L from 2 & 3 out in comparison. Given the winner clattered 3 out it's very hard to argue he shouldn't be fav on this alone tbh thou Jonbon has done nothing wrong and has course experience/form so could understand JF. The IGC similar circuit to the 2m 1 hcap, 12L+ vs both 2m1 races from 3 out which really was all made from 2 out. Whatever folk say about GDC he wasn't slowing at the end and relaxes into races beautifully these days they need to go much harder earlier at Chelt as nothing will beat him for a turn of foot but we all knew that.
 
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Just catching up on racing from today

I was pleasantly surprised to see Cool Survivor run so well in the Nathaniel Lacy

Thought he finished his race really well and can see him finishing strongly in the Bartlett when others have cried enough

Forgot I had him onside earlier in the season
 
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So looking forward to Facile tomorrow.

Really hoping El etait temps goes up in trip and is a ballymore horse, think it would help his jumping and juveniles tend to want further. Worth keeping an eye on how he runs. Was quite interested in him for the county but think he'd be high 140's which tempers enthusiasm.
 
Quevega said:
You'll probably do the times but the Nathaniel looked strongly run to me, and therefore Good Land & Sandor to a lesser extent should be upgraded, the others that were up with the pace seemed to drop away.

I think the juvenile race was also quickly run so should upgrade both mares for that as well I reckon. One proved she can still be competitive despite head banging all the way around, the other showed she has some stamina.

Arkle also looks real championship pace and makes El Fabiolo a worthy Favourite ahead of Jonbon IMO, probably means with a better judged ride Dysart Dynamo can't be totally ruled out as he looks like he could go slower if he wanted.

3 races at proper championship pace so looks very strong form.
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Lot of good points, the one to hammer home is the experience gained with 'proper championship race pace' ..... that counts for so much for me...

Despite being asucker for Marione Nationale's colours and eye test..... I feel that'll 'do him' ..... if Facile Vega comes through tomorrow.... he will have to be absolutely UNREAL to get the job done.

Experience of proper races is often overlooked (not on this forum)
 
Kevloaf said:
Lot of good points, the one to hammer home is the experience gained with 'proper championship race pace' ..... that counts for so much for me...

Despite being asucker for Marione Nationale's colours and eye test..... I feel that'll 'do him' ..... if Facile Vega comes through tomorrow.... he will have to be absolutely UNREAL to get the job done.

Experience of proper races is often overlooked (not on this forum)
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You and Quevega have covered it. That Royal Bond wasn't ran at a 'championship' pace and so MN has questions to answer.

We do need the FV race tomorrow to be ran at a proper pace and see how he copes with that. He could be vulnerable to a horse who travels well and has a sharp turn of foot. I'd like to see FV either go for it half a mile out to blunt that or show that sharp turn of foot tomorrow.

I can't get excited about him though as we know there's a huge Constitution Hill shadow over these novices and none of them IMO could wipe the sweat off his balls.
 
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Lobos said:
:biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:Thank you your Highness
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13,800+ posts.... my goodness. :dejection:


between us, do you think we've added anything? :loyal:
 
Kevloaf said:
13,800+ posts.... my goodness. :dejection:


between us, do you think we've added anything? :loyal:
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Absolutely zilch apart from a few more grey hairs on my head.
 
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Catching up. In love with that from Good Land, especially listening to Barry after. He'll be very very hard to beat in the Ballymore
 
robith said:
Catching up. In love with that from Good Land, especially listening to Barry after. He'll be very very hard to beat in the Ballymore
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Agree. Today's win doesn't appear to have impressed many but he did it well in a decent race and can only improve on that. He travelled beautifully and jumped well in a good position all the way and his young jockey looked round a couple of times for dangers but always looked to have them covered. He did it quite easily and I think there's plenty more to come.
 
DenmanSacre said:
You and Quevega have covered it. That Royal Bond wasn't ran at a 'championship' pace and so MN has questions to answer.

We do need the FV race tomorrow to be ran at a proper pace and see how he copes with that. He could be vulnerable to a horse who travels well and has a sharp turn of foot. I'd like to see FV either go for it half a mile out to blunt that or show that sharp turn of foot tomorrow.

I can't get excited about him though as we know there's a huge Constitution Hill shadow over these novices and none of them IMO could wipe the sweat off his balls.
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Given how annoyed Mullins was regarding PT on lossie then no chance he will go for home with half a mile left on FV. They will try to win but certainly won’t give him a hard race

For what it’s worth … I think he wins easy
 
I'd like to see FV beat today - blow the race wide open. Happy to see Joseph, Henry and Gordon sending horses up against FV rather than Willie pitting inferior horses against him. I've always like ITP (and will be happy if he wins) - he is a very good jumper and his breeding is solid. He might lack tactical speed but the one I think will serve it up to FV is High Definition. I initially bashed his debut and cashed 33's on the Supreme, but now find myself taking 17's and fighting his corner, so its been an up and down ride to say the least! On debut I overreacted to the the bad - I saw wayward jumping that would not cut the mustard at top level. Having watched it again, I think he's the one to take FV on with. For every hurdle he jumped poorly he pinged another beautifully, which gives me hope it was debut jitters and not a fundamentally flawed hurdling technique + when jumping issues are that well advertised they know what to do at home. Ultimately, he's ran to a debut RPR of 138 and done things the hard way. Jumped poorly at some, still won. Made all and was keen, still won. Gave Jetara 7lbs and a 4L beating, and she ran a blinder behind AD in the mares race. If, and I am mindful it's a big if, he can settle and get into a rhythm, then I can see him serving it up to FV here.
 
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….popping this in here in case folk miss the offer;

Double Odds price boost day with Hills. Any race, ?5 max, opt in required.
 
I think we need to discuss Gaelic Warrior.

I mean, he's a general 5/4 in a big festival handicap almost a year later carrying another stone, on a left handed track, against some serious scummy marks and plots.

I've backed him :highly_amused::highly_amused: (at 9/4 in a double though, just 1 pt)

Come on, own up, who's on him today ??
He's a good thing looking at those RPR's and having his form franked all over the shop :rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
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