2023 Novice Chasers

[Madmoose]

Holding and Rowlands looks down on people if they dare question times or have a different angle on a race.

So many times Holding said many horses about times and they were dire yet the odd one pops up he doesnt let it go

 

[Pendil]

Couldn't agree more charlie

It's obvious he's improved for a fence, but if anyone is backing him off the back of the Dipper form I think they are asking for trouble.

As you note, Thunder Rock was a strange ride and no doubt would have won, IMO, had he not been put so far back, and on that basis not one person would even be talking about The Real Whacker now had that happened.

The better bet would be Thunder Rock in a handicap (obviously NRNB).

Daryl/Simon/Andy can talk time figures all they like, that's all they ever do, but time figures are not the be all and end all of horse racing otherwise everyone would use them solely and be millionaires off the back of them.

The Real Whacker is joint RPR high on 160 with Thyme Hill and GDM. Initially assessed at 158 but raised to 160. Worth noting that he was giving 3lb to Monmiral and Thunder Rock. As somebody who went in at 25/1 and 33/1 for the Turners/BANC nrnb I am happy

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The Real Whacker is joint RPR high on 160 with Thyme Hill and GDM. Initially assessed at 158 but raised to 160. Worth noting that he was giving 3lb to Monmiral and Thunder Rock. As somebody who went in at 25/1 and 33/1 for the Turners/BANC nrnb I am happy

At them prices I suspect you are :encouragement: As I said, fair play to those on nice enough E/W odds, but my big issue with him is his current price and why he is that price.

FWIW I have him backed for the Turners at 33/1 NRNB, but left the BANC bet alone. I think he was only 16/1 by that point and too short, IMO.

I think it will be a stakes back job for the Turners bet, tbh.

 

[Kautostar]

At them prices I suspect you are :encouragement: As I said, fair play to those on nice enough E/W odds, but my big issue with him is his current price and why he is that price.

FWIW I have him backed for the Turners at 33/1 NRNB, but left the BANC bet alone. I think he was only 16/1 by that point and too short, IMO.

I think it will be a stakes back job for the Turners bet, tbh.

I’m of the same opinion and can’t believe his banc odds. I’m also surprised he’s been smashed up for the banc over the turners, he looked like he needed the finishing line in the dipper and I would back thunder rock to reverse the form over 3 miles. His front running style would suit the turners but the quality of that likely field would probably swallow him up too.

 

[Dilinja]

Matt Brockelbank from sporting life put up ballygriffincottage for the BANC. Sure I read someone on here putting him up for the race recently. Is running at Warwick on Saturday so might be worth getting onside if you fancy him before then.

 

[AaronLad]

Now I know he hasn't got any realistic chance of winning the Arkle but Tommy's oscar was given another tough task yesterday, conceding 19lbs to both rivals. Good effort to finish 2nd, jumped slightly right on occasions. Any comments from the trainers? I'd expect him to go to the lightning novices chase at Doncaster next where he could face off with boothill? could be an informative race and could give us an idea how Jonbon and Banbridge compare. All if's and but's.

 

[Craigy14]

I’ve just responded to Nortons with the below, what are peoples thoughts on his price with PP, is there anything in it?

“I’m in two minds whether to add Appreciate It or not for the Arkle. I just don’t understand why PP are the biggest price at 13/2 and have him 6/1 the lowest for the Turners.

I know they don’t get it right all the time but for such a high profile horse to be so opposite in the market with the rest of the firms I don’t get? Are they sucking folk in pre NRNB with the 13/2?

I do agree though he could be the best of WPM’s 2milers which just adds to the confusion​.”

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Matt Brockelbank from sporting life put up ballygriffincottage for the BANC. Sure I read someone on here putting him up for the race recently. Is running at Warwick on Saturday so might be worth getting onside if you fancy him before then.

Its in a Grade 2 race so there will probably be a Win Today and BANC offer after Thursday morning decs.

Would need some opposition at Warwick to make that type of bet of interest, and a decent double price to be offered.

 

[DenmanSacre]

I’ve just responded to Nortons with the below, what are peoples thoughts on his price with PP, is there anything in it?

“I’m in two minds whether to add Appreciate It or not for the Arkle. I just don’t understand why PP are the biggest price at 13/2 and have him 6/1 the lowest for the Turners.

I know they don’t get it right all the time but for such a high profile horse to be so opposite in the market with the rest of the firms I don’t get? Are they sucking folk in pre NRNB with the 13/2?

I do agree though he could be the best of WPM’s 2milers which just adds to the confusion​.”

He's 6.6 on Betfair Exchange for the Arkle and 10 to 11 for Turners. PP may just have more money for the others and wanting to even up their books.

 

[Quevega]

I’ve just responded to Nortons with the below, what are peoples thoughts on his price with PP, is there anything in it?

“I’m in two minds whether to add Appreciate It or not for the Arkle. I just don’t understand why PP are the biggest price at 13/2 and have him 6/1 the lowest for the Turners.

I know they don’t get it right all the time but for such a high profile horse to be so opposite in the market with the rest of the firms I don’t get? Are they sucking folk in pre NRNB with the 13/2?

I do agree though he could be the best of WPM’s 2milers which just adds to the confusion​.”

I'd say wait.

There's a good chance that after Dublin, we'll know Willie's best 2 miler, or as good as.

With Jonbon being so strong I'd be sure then we'll be able to get at least 11/4 or 3-1 on Willie's No1 (maybe a touch bigger), and Jonbon will slowly squeeze out towards Mullins No1 as the days progress.
Obviously if they remain closely matched then the prices will probably hold or only shorten a half point or so.

I personally see no reason to guess which is going to be the perceived strongest challenger on the day, at the current prices.
I only have Dysart backed from last April/May,

So my choice is Jonbon, Appreciate It or El Fabiolo, or some combination of those, or none at all.

But I'm waiting as I believe that barring serious accidents the market on the day or nearer the day will be handy enough for me. People would do well to think back to markets after declarations and how quite often prices are bigger than for the previous 2 or 3 months.

This is not always the case obviously as circumstances can dictate that you get a race that has broken up a lot and you are sitting pretty or ugly. This race looks like it would take a lot for that to happen, but it could, as Mullins best could emerge after Dublin then miss the race cos of injury and Jonbon goes off odds on !.

I wouldn't read too much into the PP prices as IMO he is the most equipped to go up in trip and the least likely to improve. So PP have probably just factored that in, along with what I've said above, in that they are all shorter than they ought to be anyways.

You may get lucky and drop on the one that goes a lot shorter by choosing now, but it'll be more luck than judgement IMO, and that's not the way to bet consistently.

 

[Craigy14]

I'd say wait.

There's a good chance that after Dublin, we'll know Willie's best 2 miler, or as good as.

With Jonbon being so strong I'd be sure then we'll be able to get at least 11/4 or 3-1 on Willie's No1 (maybe a touch bigger), and Jonbon will slowly squeeze out towards Mullins No1 as the days progress.
Obviously if they remain closely matched then the prices will probably hold or only shorten a half point or so.

I personally see no reason to guess which is going to be the perceived strongest challenger on the day, at the current prices.
I only have Dysart backed from last April/May,

So my choice is Jonbon, Appreciate It or El Fabiolo, or some combination of those, or none at all.

But I'm waiting as I believe that barring serious accidents the market on the day or nearer the day will be handy enough for me. People would do well to think back to markets after declarations and how quite often prices are bigger than for the previous 2 or 3 months.

This is not always the case obviously as circumstances can dictate that you get a race that has broken up a lot and you are sitting pretty or ugly. This race looks like it would take a lot for that to happen, but it could, as Mullins best could emerge after Dublin then miss the race cos of injury and Jonbon goes off odds on !.

I wouldn't read too much into the PP prices as IMO he is the most equipped to go up in trip and the least likely to improve. So PP have probably just factored that in, along with what I've said above, in that they are all shorter than they ought to be anyways.

You may get lucky and drop on the one that goes a lot shorter by choosing now, but it'll be more luck than judgement IMO, and that's not the way to bet consistently.

I agree Jonbon is keeping the Mullins prices decent enough for now. He is also having another run so although we’ll not learn anything again (barring falling etc) then no doubt they’ll shorten him slightly again.

I think you’re right about holding off, how much shorter will they make appreciate it today after beating the same rival? Surely no more than a point. Then it gives us the opportunity pre DRF once declarations and jockey bookings are in, to decide what to do.

I’m the same with WPM’s lot and only have Dysart backed as he was a backable price for me. 13/2 about Appreciate It is close to wanting me to get involved but hopefully he doesn’t shorten too much after today.

 

[Craigy14]

He's 6.6 on Betfair Exchange for the Arkle and 10 to 11 for Turners. PP may just have more money for the others and wanting to even up their books.

Cheers Denman, need to get my finger out regarding the exchanges :boxing:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Blue Lord ran in that Appreciate It race today and then in the Irish Arkle.

So it looks like Willie wanted a 2nd run into him first (maybe because of missing 12 months between Festivals 21&22), and hes a big sort.

So I'd expect Appreciate It to go to the Irish Arkle.
and hope to see Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo there too, and they all have their chance at a Grade 1 before Cheltenham (they all missed the Christmas one), along with Grade 1 winner Saint Roi.

That would sort out the pecking order for the Arkle for Willie and Ireland.

I have Appreciate It for the Turners, not the Arkle.

I'm not expecting to have reason to consider any change to that view (given today's race and opposition), until we see the Irish Arkle, though.

 

[Craigy14]

Blue Lord ran in that Appreciate It race today and then in the Irish Arkle.

So it looks like Willie wanted a 2nd run into him first (maybe because of missing 12 months between Festivals 21&22), and hes a big sort.

So I'd expect Appreciate It to go to the Irish Arkle.
and hope to see Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo there too, and they all have their chance at a Grade 1 before Cheltenham (they all missed the Christmas one), along with Grade 1 winner Saint Roi.

That would sort out the pecking order for the Arkle for Willie and Ireland.

I have Appreciate It for the Turners, not the Arkle.

I'm not expecting to have reason to consider any change to that view (given today's race and opposition), until we see the Irish Arkle, though.

I expected El Fabiolo to get the entry and required experience considering he’s only run 4 times for WPM.

Himself and Appreciate It have both had 4 runs in 2 years but AI did have plenty runs tail end of 2020 into 2021 with bumpers and novice hurdling.

AI also looked a lot more polished jumper on their respective debut over fences.

 

[Lobos]

Sax, if Appreciate it doesn't improve on what he did on debut, what race at the DRF does Willie normally throw his Turners options at ? Or is the Irish Arkle that race ? I'm thinking that if Gordon's horse gets closer today (albeit on better terms) then Willie may be in two minds about stepping AI up. Personally haven't backed AI for anything yet. Something is stopping me........must be my big gut again!

 

[Kaizer chief]

Sax, if Appreciate it doesn't improve on what he did on debut, what race at the DRF does Willie normally throw his Turners options at ? Or is the Irish Arkle that race ? I'm thinking that if Gordon's horse gets closer today (albeit on better terms) then Willie may be in two minds about stepping AI up. Personally haven't backed AI for anything yet. Something is stopping me........must be my big gut again!

It looks like he targets the flogas chase for his turners horse. In the past three years galopin des champs, asterion forlonge & faugheen have went this route.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Melon and bapaume both ran in the 2m1f race at the drf and went turner's

Melon was townends pick, so first string, finished 4th and went up to the turner's and was very unlucky to get bobbed out of it by samcro in the turner's


Blackbow finished 3rd in the 2m1f drf race then went to the turner's

Voi du reve the same, fell in the 2m1f then unseated with ruby on in the turners

So the answer is he runs turner's horses in both

 

[YoungHustler]

Blue Lord ran in that Appreciate It race today and then in the Irish Arkle.

So it looks like Willie wanted a 2nd run into him first (maybe because of missing 12 months between Festivals 21&22), and hes a big sort.

So I'd expect Appreciate It to go to the Irish Arkle.
and hope to see Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo there too, and they all have their chance at a Grade 1 before Cheltenham (they all missed the Christmas one), along with Grade 1 winner Saint Roi.

That would sort out the pecking order for the Arkle for Willie and Ireland.

I have Appreciate It for the Turners, not the Arkle.

I'm not expecting to have reason to consider any change to that view (given today's race and opposition), until we see the Irish Arkle, though.

Is your thinking that AI will be beaten in the Irish Arkle then by either ElFab or DD? Also, do you have James De Berlais for the BANC only or not at all?

 

[jrjr]

Been considering my position on the NH Chase. Have most of the likely runners near the head of the market covered but have a Ballygrifincottage shaped hole. My current thought process is along these lines:

A, Will he be good enough to challenge for the BANC?
B, If he ticks box A will Skelton definitely go for that race if the NH Chase looks more winnable?

And I think the NH Chase definitely looks winnable. Gaillard looks beatable and something about Chemical Energy bothers me. If he was Gordy's main play then why did he go off the 4/1 outsider in the three runner trials race? I know they were on at 66/1 but wouldn't they have smashed him up on the day as well - the 66/1 was already in the bag. Probably just my cynical side coming to the fore.
That 3 runner race also bothers me. As Third Time Lucki demonstrated last year, it is easy to float round Cheltenham in October in small fields when the opposition crumble.

Any Balygrifincottage thoughts fellow FJ's?

 

[nortonscoin200]

I don't quite get some of the logic on these pages today regarding APPRECIATE IT and the Arkle.

If you fancy him surely the way to go is 5-1 nrnb before he runs today.

Willie is going to have such a strong Arkle team - perm any two (?) from El Fabiolo, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It, Saint Roi and less likely Sir Gerhard - that you aren't going to get 5-1 on any/either of them come the day.

So if Appreciate It is less than impressive today OR at the DRF he doesn't get the gig - simple as that. So you get your money back.

But if he is impressive today I reckon he'll be 7-2 at best.

And if he then impresses at the DRF he'll probably be vying with Jonbon for favouritism.

Memories are short but we are dealing with a horse who was only denied the Champion Bumper by the brilliance of Ferny Hollow.

Then came back a year later to win the Supreme by 24 lengths.

Then after a year out and no prep run he was only beaten just over 9lengths by Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle.

No wonder Willie seems reluctant to move him up in trip -unless he proves himself a lesser light of old which has yet to happen.

So the way I see it, backing Appreciate It to win the Arkle is a bet to nothing IF you believe he's still a force.

Either he goes there with a big chance or he's not in the team.