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2023 Novice Chasers

jrjr said:
Been considering my position on the NH Chase. Have most of the likely runners near the head of the market covered but have a Ballygrifincottage shaped hole. My current thought process is along these lines:

A, Will he be good enough to challenge for the BANC?
B, If he ticks box A will Skelton definitely go for that race if the NH Chase looks more winnable?

And I think the NH Chase definitely looks winnable. Gaillard looks beatable and something about Chemical Energy bothers me. If he was Gordy's main play then why did he go off the 4/1 outsider in the three runner trials race? I know they were on at 66/1 but wouldn't they have smashed him up on the day as well - the 66/1 was already in the bag. Probably just my cynical side coming to the fore.
That 3 runner race also bothers me. As Third Time Lucki demonstrated last year, it is easy to float round Cheltenham in October in small fields when the opposition crumble.

Any Balygrifincottage thoughts fellow FJ's?
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Jockey arrangements would be a worry.
You'd think he'd want his bro on it.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
I don't quite get some of the logic on these pages today regarding APPRECIATE IT and the Arkle.

If you fancy him surely the way to go is 5-1 nrnb before he runs today.

Willie is going to have such a strong Arkle team - perm any two (?) from El Fabiolo, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It, Saint Roi and less likely Sir Gerhard - that you aren't going to get 5-1 on any/either of them come the day.

So if Appreciate It is less than impressive today OR at the DRF he doesn't get the gig - simple as that. So you get your money back.

But if he is impressive today I reckon he'll be 7-2 at best.

And if he then impresses at the DRF he'll probably be vying with Jonbon for favouritism.

Memories are short but we are dealing with a horse who was only denied the Champion Bumper by the brilliance of Ferny Hollow.

Then came back a year later to win the Supreme by 24 lengths.

Then after a year out and no prep run he was only beaten just over 9lengths by Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle.

No wonder Willie seems reluctant to move him up in trip -unless he proves himself a lesser light of old which has yet to happen.

So the way I see it, backing Appreciate It to win the Arkle is a bet to nothing IF you believe he's still a force.

Either he goes there with a big chance or he's not in the team.
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Yep, agree.

5/1 NRNB just make soooo much sense.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
I don't quite get some of the logic on these pages today regarding APPRECIATE IT and the Arkle.

If you fancy him surely the way to go is 5-1 nrnb before he runs today.

Willie is going to have such a strong Arkle team - perm any two (?) from El Fabiolo, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It, Saint Roi and less likely Sir Gerhard - that you aren't going to get 5-1 on any/either of them come the day.

So if Appreciate It is less than impressive today OR at the DRF he doesn't get the gig - simple as that. So you get your money back.

But if he is impressive today I reckon he'll be 7-2 at best.

And if he then impresses at the DRF he'll probably be vying with Jonbon for favouritism.

Memories are short but we are dealing with a horse who was only denied the Champion Bumper by the brilliance of Ferny Hollow.

Then came back a year later to win the Supreme by 24 lengths.

Then after a year out and no prep run he was only beaten just over 9lengths by Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle.

No wonder Willie seems reluctant to move him up in trip -unless he proves himself a lesser light of old which has yet to happen.

So the way I see it, backing Appreciate It to win the Arkle is a bet to nothing IF you believe he's still a force.

Either he goes there with a big chance or he's not in the team.
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Great post, agree with the lot. He's one of the best NRNB examples for the reasons you've stated.
 
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Unless I’ve missed it, I can honestly say I didn’t even know he was that price NRNB, I can’t use Billy’s now so have never opened the app for months!

Will need to contact a friend, cheers Nortons :encouragement:
 
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charlie said:
Great post, agree with the lot. He's one of the best NRNB examples for the reasons you've stated.
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Yeah I'd say he will either be 2/1 joint fav with jonbon after winning at the drf or he will be in the turners
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Yeah I'd say he will either be 2/1 joint fav with jonbon after winning at the drf or he will be in the turners
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Yep. Anyone in doubt should look at his historical SP's. He went off 100/30 in a Champion Hurdle on his first start after a setback - he's a joint fav job wherever he goes so NRNB is no brainer territory.
 
Appreciate It wins all



Hahah, only seen 2 fences
 
Jumping was better today, but then he wasn’t pressed at all. Learnt chuff all.
 
He's some big yoke. He'd want to be sensational to beat top horses over 2 miles. Guess we'll find out in February.
 
Hopefully Top Bandit and Jack are ok, horrid looking fall.
 
Will be interesting to see his jumping in a proper race & perhaps with something taking him on for the lead. He seemed to meet 2 or 3 of them on a wrong stride & lose a little bit of ground & that’s when getting a freebie on the front. Obviously I’m being critical and he was impressive.
 
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Brooksie said:
Hopefully Top Bandit and Jack are ok, horrid looking fall.
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Didn’t look great. Hoping the camera angle exaggerated things. Don’t often see a fall from behind.
 
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