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2023 Bumper

ComplyOrDie said:
The RPR will be partly based around the time of the race though, so you could mark it up based on the argument that the time is nonsense. How much you or anyone else mark it up is obviously open to opinion, as are most things in racing.

I'm certainly willing to give Chapeau De Soleil another chance, even more so at a left handed track, if he doesn't win next time out then I could understand the reservations, for sure.
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Worth noting ferny was beaten twice, so maybe even if CDS does too, wouldn't write off, in theory. Obviously depends on the manner of defeat.

I myself had Ferny at big prices but had completely written him off and when he won I couldn't remember if had actually had him backed him still. Luckily it was a bet that I couldn't cash out and completely forget/dismissed.

Funny game at times.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Fair enough Faugheen_Machine - but that rpr is still a long way from where you'd expect it to be if we've just seen the CB winner.

Hope you are well and look forward to hopefully seeing you in that spot beside the weighing room next March.
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I'll definitely be there for a catch up and a beer. It'd be good to see everyone again.
 
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archie said:
I'm not sure that Willie ever has THE bumper horse to go to Cheltenham. More like half a dozen A horse to go there. He's won 4 of the last 5 editions with 4 different jockeys.
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Agreed - and at 15/8, 2/1, 11/1 and 25/1 SPs

With 35%, 35%, 13% and 22% of the field being trained by him respectively
 
More on the importance (or otherwise) of debut rprs in determining the Champion Bumper winner. If you're mightily bored of the topic I apologise and please look away now.

But I wanted to find out if the last four winners - who each posted a debut rpr of at least 128 - really were exceptional in their year.

I think the answer has a pretty important bearing on whether CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (rpr 112 with excuses) really should be 10-1 joint favourite and is in with a live chance of being top dog.

Here are the debut rprs posted by the top 4 finishers in the Champion Bumper in each of the last 6 years (could have gone back further but even I was starting to get bored):

2022

1 Facile Vega 128
2 American Mike 126
3 James's Gate 115
4 Seabank Bistro 121

2021

1 Sir Gerhard 131
2 Kilcruit 123
3 Elle Est Belle 120 (+7lbs for mares allowance)
4 Three Stripe Life 127

2020

1 Ferny Hollow 128
2 Appreciate It 129
3 Queens Brook 123 (+7lbs)
4 Third Time Lucki 110

2019

1 Envoi Allen 131
2 Blue Sari 126 (+ 4-yr-olds allowance)
3 Thyme Hill 111
4 Abacadabras 113

2018

1 Relegate 99 (+7lbs)
2 Carefully Selected 138
3 Tornado Flyer 116
4 Acey Milan 93

2017

1 Faayonagh 81
2 Debuchet 112
3 Claimantakinforgan 115
4 Next Destination 116.

So what chance Chapeau De Soleil?

Even if you bump him up 10lbs - due to extenuating circumstances on debut - an rpr of 122 wouldn't have got him in to the top two in any of the last 4 years.

The stats also show that it wasn't only the winners in the last 4 years who posted some big numbers on debut.

Basically unless your horse posted a debut rpr in the 120s you were looking at a third or fourth place finish at best - and half of those spots were taken by nags who posted in the 120s on debut.

It certainly looks as though the overall standard of horses contesting the Champion Bumper has risen in recent years.

It's not been the case that in each of the last four years one freak performer has won the race. It's more a case of better class horses giving the field more strength in depth.

And in betting terms that means any horse who starts off on the back of the starting grid with a pretty mediocre debut rpr faces an uphill task to find the improvement necessary to pass so many talented bumper recruits.

Well that's how I see it.

I'm really not trying to bang the drum again to support my argument that Chapeau De Soleil is going to struggle to do anything better than place.

But this is one race in particular that seems to me to be very much driven by stats which makes it easier for us to rule out an awful lot of contenders who will in all probability have very little chance of making an impact in March.

Again it's my contention that we haven't seen next year's Champion Bumper winner on the track yet - nothing has so far posted high enough numbers.

And it just seems inevitable that with all the talent at Willie, Gordon and maybe Henry (Barry The Butcher ?) 's disposal some horses are going to post rprs in the high 120s on debut.
 
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Myflutters said:
Worth noting ferny was beaten twice, so maybe even if CDS does too, wouldn't write off, in theory. Obviously depends on the manner of defeat.

I myself had Ferny at big prices but had completely written him off and when he won I couldn't remember if had actually had him backed him still. Luckily it was a bet that I couldn't cash out and completely forget/dismissed.

Funny game at times.
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Though is worth noting Ferny is a bit of a statistical outlier. Last ten years most of the winners are unbeaten, and if defeated have lost once. Ferny the only winner with more than one 2 to his name
 
Great work nortonscoin200 but as your previous efforts confirmed, before the run of hot winners four of the five previous winners all recorded lower RPRs than Chapeau de Soleil.
I like trends and tend to have a sneak at whether the dynamics of a specific race is changing, but for me we've just had four very good horses and three of them were Cheveley Park owned, which may mean absolutely nothing, but they know a thing or two about horses and may well have entered the NH scene with a specific purchasing plan with certain targets.
And, I think CDS will have learnt plenty from his debut, his next run will be crucial for me in determining his abilities by which time the 10/1 may well be long gone...
 
nortonscoin200 Is it worth considering yesterday's interesting topic of the Racing Post's after timing in changing RPR's? I wonder how many of those high 120's + were scored in the aftermath and how many were amended following a good win in the Champion Bumper or elsewhere. A horse I am following for a potential handicap had his sceond run bumped 8pts yesterday for no reason. He's not run since and noone has franked the form.

Say CDS and BDA both win comfortably over Xmas and score ~ 135, I'd wager CDS run would be upgraded to the low 120s.
 
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Any news on Croak Park ?? He's an obvious one that could enter Bumper equations
 
I noticed that Firefox is declared to run in a bumper at Naas on Thursday. Would he still be eligible to run in the Champion Bumper having run in a maiden hurdle?
 
Fouroverthrutwo said:
I noticed that Firefox is declared to run in a bumper at Naas on Thursday. Would he still be eligible to run in the Champion Bumper having run in a maiden hurdle?
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I believe the answer is No , but i'd like it to be yes , only trouble is . I don't think i'd the be able to find my old betslip now :cower:.
 
BigChaang said:
I believe the answer is No , but i'd like it to be yes , only trouble is . I don't think i'd the be able to find my old betslip now :cower:.
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Doesn't matter, his Hurdle run makes him ineligible.
 
Very good support for CPS today. Back into 7's
 
So far, off the top of my head the ones from the big guns who we havent seen out yet are

Gordon:
Croke Park

Willie:
The Gunner Yeats
Fact To File
Soir De Garde
Blizzard Of Ozz
Fancy Girl
Porthill
 
archie said:
I'm not sure that Willie ever has THE bumper horse to go to Cheltenham. More like half a dozen A horse to go there. He's won 4 of the last 5 editions with 4 different jockeys.
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I’d agree asides from last year. The yard knew for a long long time it seemed that Facile was a monster.
 
In his October Stable Tour HDB said he’d be staying in bumpers: https://jumpsm.attheraces.com/features/stable-tours/henry-de-bromhead

"We’re just starting to work him now, but everything he has done, he has done it nicely.

"The plan is to keep him in bumpers this season and we’ll look to start him off from around the end of the November."

Obviously we’re into December now…​
 
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