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2023 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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Winging The Last said:
He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.​


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)
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I think the only way that IEP goes to the Supreme is if Facile Vega gets stepped up to the Ballymore.

Those two look fairly nailed on to be Townends rides to me. Then that leaves Jacob on Hunters Yarn in the Supreme, and Dark Raven to step up to the Ballymore. It would be very Willie to let his two horses that have lost (Facile Vega and Dark Raven) step up in trip.

Still think it's way more likely that IEP will go to the Ballymore though.
 
Dandrew99 said:
I think the only way that IEP goes to the Supreme is if Facile Vega gets stepped up to the Ballymore.

Those two look fairly nailed on to be Townends rides to me. Then that leaves Jacob on Hunters Yarn in the Supreme, and Dark Raven to step up to the Ballymore. It would be very Willie to let his two horses that have lost (Facile Vega and Dark Raven) step up in trip.

Still think it's way more likely that IEP will go to the Ballymore though.
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Agree. However who do you think would ride Gaelic Warrior?

If I was to guess it would be:

Supreme
Facile Vega - PT
IET - Danny
Hunters Yarn - Jacob

Ballymore
Gaelic Warrior - PT (Only one to ride him so far for Willie)
IEP - Jacob
Champ Kiely - Danny (Danny ridden him twice and won both times including the Lawlors)
 
Winging The Last said:
Agree. However who do you think would ride Gaelic Warrior?

If I was to guess it would be:

Supreme
Facile Vega - PT
IET - Danny
Hunters Yarn - Jacob

Ballymore
Gaelic Warrior - PT (Only one to ride him so far for Willie)
IEP - Jacob
Champ Kiely - Danny (Danny ridden him twice and won both times including the Lawlors)
Click to expand...

PT is the only one to ride IEP too. It is tricky with there being 3 clear standouts that you can see him wanting to ride. Willie would have a queue of jockeys wanting a ride on Gaelic Warrior if he were to choose IEP, so it's not something I've overly thought about!

I suppose the one very real possibility if that Facile Vega has had some sort of setback after the DRF and will miss Cheltenham... If I were to have a punt at the minute though I'd be going:

Supreme
Facile Vega/Impaire Et Passe - townend
IET - Danny
Hunters Yarn - Jacob
Diverge - Patrick

Ballymore
Facile Vega/Impaire Et Passe - Townend
Gaelic Warrior - Patrick
Dark Raven - Jacob
Champ Kiely - Danny

Still the likes of O'Keefe/Hayes to pick up the odd ride too, maybe In Excess? Rachel might even pick one up, doesn't look like HDB has a great deal in the novice hurdles. Mark Walsh on Ho My Lord. He could have an absolute stampede this year.
 
I reckon Townend rides IEP here and ends the Jacob theory... And he goes off about 2/1 fav.
 
IEP now 6.2 for the supreme and 6 Ballymore on the exchange.
 
IEP still 10 on Betfair exchange for supreme
 
Winging The Last said:
He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.​


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)
Click to expand...

I've listened to this about 5 times now and still not 100% sure it's what he said, but I think in his Irish Racing stable tour that it's Dark Raven (not Hunters Yarn) will go one way and Impaire Et Passe goes the other. Would definitely make more sense to me.

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Dandrew99 said:
I've listened to this about 5 times now and still not 100% sure it's what he said, but I think in his Irish Racing stable tour that it's Dark Raven (not Hunters Yarn) will go one way and Impaire Et Passe goes the other. Would definitely make more sense to me.

​​​​​

​​​​​
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At about 1:39 this is 100% what he says. DR one way and IEP the other, having just mentioned stepping IEP up.
 
jrjr said:
At about 1:39 this is 100% what he says. DR one way and IEP the other, having just mentioned stepping IEP up.
Click to expand...

Hunters Yarn????

Hoping he's County Hurdle.
 
jrjr said:
At about 1:39 this is 100% what he says. DR one way and IEP the other, having just mentioned stepping IEP up.
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Yeah that's the one. I swear the sound on that stable tour was recorded using a toaster, was awful.

Still think it's Dark Raven and Hunters Yarn who should be kept apart though. Jacobs two rides sorted, Townend rides IEP wherever he goes (probably Ballymore).
 
Given Willie Mullins has said Ho My Lord is one you could have a few pounds each way on in the Ballymore, in his column today...

He surely goes off shorter than that doesn't he?

Clearly won't be first string, but 33/1 (35/1 boosted) available with Ladbrokes and Unibet.

Might end up being a bit of a faff having to lay off I suppose, but I think that's worth a go. :indecisiveness:
 
Kevloaf said:
Given Willie Mullins has said Ho My Lord is one you could have a few pounds each way on in the Ballymore, in his column today...

He surely goes off shorter than that doesn't he?

Clearly won't be first string, but 33/1 (35/1 boosted) available with Ladbrokes and Unibet.

Might end up being a bit of a faff having to lay off I suppose, but I think that's worth a go. :indecisiveness:
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Hes no chance of beating any of the top 5 or 6 in the betting imo, would need to improve stones. Given the money for him I thought his last run was seriously underwhelming, did drift a bit before the off mind you
 
Studfarm254 said:
Hes no chance of beating any of the top 5 or 6 in the betting imo, would need to improve stones. Given the money for him I thought his last run was seriously underwhelming, did drift a bit before the off mind you
Click to expand...

I know Willie does run a few 'also-rans' from time to time but I'd be surprised all the same if a JP/Willie horse went off bigger than 33/1 in a graded race.

He was only 50/1 NRNB before the race and given he's been name checked afterwards, I think it's worth taking a look at.


"No chance of beating any of the top 5 or 6 in the betting" isn't how these races tend to work either. They don't all run to form, and some horses are run with picking up the pieces in mind. Up in trip could bring out some improvement too.


Not like anyone can look at the top of the Ballymore market and be scared of any of them? Looks like a Willoughby Court kinda race :devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
I know Willie does run a few 'also-rans' from time to time but I'd be surprised all the same if a JP/Willie horse went off bigger than 33/1 in a graded race.

He was only 50/1 NRNB before the race and given he's been name checked afterwards, I think it's worth taking a look at.


"No chance of beating any of the top 5 or 6 in the betting" isn't how these races tend to work either. They don't all run to form, and some horses are run with picking up the pieces in mind. Up in trip could bring out some improvement too.


Not like anyone can look at the top of the Ballymore market and be scared of any of them? Looks like a Willoughby Court kinda race :devilish:
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Well we’ll have to agree to disagree, I think the ballymore looks a cracker. I actually think it’s better than the supreme. I know they won’t all run to form, but still give him little to no chance of making the frame. If you could get 5 places then maybe could be worth a few
 
Studfarm254 said:
Well we’ll have to agree to disagree, I think the ballymore looks a cracker. I actually think it’s better than the supreme. I know they won’t all run to form, but still give him little to no chance of making the frame. If you could get 5 places then maybe could be worth a few
Click to expand...

Yeah that's fine, personally think it 'being better than the Supreme' doesn't mean it's a cracker in terms of quality.

No superstars in it like some years (pre hindsight), so it looks competitive (which is great)

For me, it looks an open race.... so nothing wrong with looking at bigger prices this far out.... and you don't know how it may cut up.

No point me staying up telling everyone what fancy prices I have already is there either, all about looking for horses that could shorten and highlight them.... which I think Ho My Lord is ....



But, I've also just backed Attacca at 40/1 nrnbog and he does have no chance :loyal:
 
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