2023 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

I guess on all ratings achieved Gaelic Warrior is the one.

He's hit consistently high RPR's plus officially rated higher than Hermes Allen. Gaelic Warrior is 152 in Ireland, that's without UK Tax, Hermes Allen is rated 149 in the UK.

IEP has the most to do of the Mullins likely runners, IMO, but he's the one I'm most excited about.

I prefer a horse for the Ballymore who can win over 2m, than a horse that looks like he could go Ballymore or Bartlett, if that makes sense. Hermes Allen is in the latter bracket for me.

Just my preference and opinion of the race.

FWIW I think most Challow winners would benefit for going to the Bartlett, but most seem to end up in the Ballymore.

I would say that’s because it’s a grade 1 over 2 and a half mile.
Not sure I would look beyond the Ballymore if I owned the winner.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

There's plenty gone close enough to make it just a coincidence and without any real scientific or racing logic behind it.

Based on stats, aren't IEP and Gaelic up against it ?
Probably more logic to these as well.

Apart from the UK Nichols trained novice vs IRE Mullins trained stats :highly_amused:

Champ would've won if City island hadn't done a Justin gatlin

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I would say that’s because it’s a grade 1 over 2 and a half mile.
Not sure I would look beyond the Ballymore if I owned the winner.

Yeah, and understandable, I guess. Phillip Hobbs sent Thyme Hill to the Bartlett after winning the Challow and he still didn't win the Bartlett, but I'd like more to go to the Bartlett as I think that would suit more.

Nicky Henderson said he should have sent Champ to the Bartlett, something I was very vocal about on here pre festival.

 

[Lobos]

I do think Hermes could be very good but also think both Good Land and Champ Kiely are very underated on what they've done so far. It's a very open race for sure.

 

[Lobos]

The form is murky at best in all the novice hurdles

Been a weird year

Iv not watched a single race and thought id definitely just seen a cheltenham winner

Very true. I'm with you FF. The markets agree as well.

 

[charlie]

BMG mk2

Looks that way to me.

 

[opatcho]

Hermes form is started to get some strength to it, cant deny that
However, I would take Hermes top RPR and minus 3-5 from it. Nichols tends to peak his horses early, the festival isnt the main priority for him.
Was mentioned on a recent podcast - Nichols last fez winner was Politologue.
Its that time of year aswell where the yards form takes a dive

Makes it very difficult to side with a Nichols Challow winner. BUTTTT, I'm not sure Willie has a strong horse for this. I mentioned before how Willie has won the Ballymore with a horse that was also fav for the supreme, one of those "the horse could win either". That was FV before his run at the DRF. Now... its obvious whether he has one
Impaire Et Passe is probably the closes to this, and yet he's 3rd fav for the Ballymore

Could the novice are that bad this season where we see a ex-triumph supreme (II Etait Temps) and a ex-fred winter win the ballymore (Gaelic Warrior). Both horses failed to win at the fez the previous year though!

I think RPR's and trends may have to be put to one side for this race. For me, I want a horse that could have ran in the supreme and ran well and is generally unexposed, and could improve - so will to watch a few replays over the coming weeks

Tricky race this

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Looks that way to me.

A future KG winner and Gold Cup contender?
Possible I guess, but looks a more natural hurdler to
me with his slick jumping.
Time will tell as always.

 

[Rooster Booster]

A future KG winner and Gold Cup contender?
Possible I guess, but looks a more natural hurdler to
me with his slick jumping.
Time will tell as always.

Yes it’s amusing how being likened to a horse rated in the low 170s that’s has amassed 375k in earnings to date is intended as a negative ...I reckon BMG owners still hound the trainer to this day about not winning the ballymore. Apparently the last I heard they were trying to do a swap deal with Bobs owners, obviously this is a Cheltenham forum and this is the ballymore thread so it’s the obvious throwaway comment for folks to make but I do wonder whether we sometimes get a little too detached from the outside world at times.

BTW like some others I do not think HA will win the Ballymore unless it’s really testing. Most trainers I believe would have him in the Albert Bartlett as his pedigree screams stamina, particularly the dam side, but most trainers do not take such a long term view with their novices as Nicholls.

They thought he was slow, he was/is at home and his initial race tells you what they thought of him at home. He clearly has a huge engine but in a spring ground Ballymore he could be vulnerable to pacier types and this is not currently reflected in his price. If we do not get appreciable rain by the Wednesday I see him going off 3rd or 4th favourite (possibly even close to double digits on the exchange) and at that point I will consider a cover bet in recognition of how often I am wrong :welcoming:

 

[charlie]

A future KG winner and Gold Cup contender?
Possible I guess, but looks a more natural hurdler to
me with his slick jumping.
Time will tell as always.

What he'll be in time doesn't bare any relevance to whether or not he'll win this and horses by Poliglote do far better over fences in time.
People forget how confident Paul was with BMG going into the Ballymore and he got walloped by what we now know are 2 good, but not exceptional, horses.
Hermes Allen will meet the same fete IMO. Be funny if Paul waited for Aintree - I sort of joke, but I wouldn't put it past 4 chins.
Must be miserable siding with so many British trained horses CAT
I'm only teasing, he goes there with a live chance, I just don't think he should be favourite :beaten:

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

What he'll be in time doesn't bare any relevance to whether or not he'll win this and horses by Poliglote do far better over fences in time.
People forget how confident Paul was with BMG going into the Ballymore and he got walloped by what we now know are 2 good, but not exceptional, horses.
Hermes Allen will meet the same fete IMO. Be funny if Paul waited for Aintree - I sort of joke, but I wouldn't put it past 4 chins.
Must be miserable siding with so many British trained horses CAT
I'm only teasing, he goes there with a live chance, I just don't think he should be favourite :beaten:

Haha, just trying to balance it out a bit.
Someone got to stick up for the Brits!!

I do genuinely think he’s a good chance though, really like the way he jumps a hurdle, just a shame his price ain’t a bit bigger.
Maybe as Rooster says….. he will be bigger on the day, that would be nice.

 

[Quevega]

I think this race tactically will be really interesting and may be very important as to who emerges on top. If they are of similar ability.
If Mullins runs Champ Keily, GW and Impaire et Passe.

Who will lead ?

I think Impaire and Hermes Allen are the slickest hurdlers I've seen this year, and both will make ground at the hurdles.
Then the jumping right thing for Gaelic, who will need a stablemate to run alongside. Or lead on his own.


At the moment I think that Hermes Allen will lead if he's allowed too.
And Champ Keily will sit in behind alongside Gaelic with Impaire & Good Land held up.

It'll be hard/foolish for any horse to sit out wide as Gaelic will be shuffling them all sideways.
So Impaire and Good Land will be keen to be on the shoulder of Hermes Allen if they allow him to lead. Or sit tight behind the Warrior on the rail, and wait for the second last.

I think Hermes probably has to try and make it.
If he jumps as well as he has previously, and they allow him to stack them up because they think they are better, then that's his best chance.
If they end up fighting for the lead and go too quick then it may well be set up for Good Land and Impaire.

Obviously if one of them has much more ability than the rest it might not make much difference, but as we stand they all have claims.

 

[Lobos]

Lovely commentary Q

 

[Benjy23]

Not to say they don't often get it wrong but a lot of these markets will become more interesting imo in the 48 hours before the race, when we've got a supposed first (and second and third) string from Mullins.

 

[Quevega]

Not to say they don't often get it wrong but a lot of these markets will become more interesting imo in the 48 hours before the race, when we've got a supposed first (and second and third) string from Mullins.

Yeah, you can already see on the exchange that Hermes is going to be around 7/2 4-1, and then the Mullins main 2 probably similar. With the townend ride probably close to FAV.
Very open race, means Good Land or Champ may touch double figures.
assuming all declared obviously.

 

[Winging The Last]

I think this race tactically will be really interesting and may be very important as to who emerges on top. If they are of similar ability.
If Mullins runs Champ Keily, GW and Impaire et Passe.

Who will lead ?

I think Impaire and Hermes Allen are the slickest hurdlers I've seen this year, and both will make ground at the hurdles.
Then the jumping right thing for Gaelic, who will need a stablemate to run alongside. Or lead on his own.


At the moment I think that Hermes Allen will lead if he's allowed too.
And Champ Keily will sit in behind alongside Gaelic with Impaire & Good Land held up.

It'll be hard/foolish for any horse to sit out wide as Gaelic will be shuffling them all sideways.
So Impaire and Good Land will be keen to be on the shoulder of Hermes Allen if they allow him to lead. Or sit tight behind the Warrior on the rail, and wait for the second last.

I think Hermes probably has to try and make it.
If he jumps as well as he has previously, and they allow him to stack them up because they think they are better, then that's his best chance.
If they end up fighting for the lead and go too quick then it may well be set up for Good Land and Impaire.

Obviously if one of them has much more ability than the rest it might not make much difference, but as we stand they all have claims.

You have to remember that Champ Kiely also jumps out to his right which he did in the Lawlors. You'd think they'd want to lead with him as well as most of his wins have been front running rides and the only loss he has had was when help up

 

[Quevega]

You have to remember that Champ Kiely also jumps out to his right which he did in the Lawlors. You'd think they'd want to lead with him as well as most of his wins have been front running rides and the only loss he has had was when help up

Yeah, it's possible, and Willie might run another one or 2 as well, like In Excess or Ho My Lord.
But They will want someone to sit alongside Gaelic I think, and he is likely to be Townends ride IMO.
If Champ leads then Hermes would have to be as close behind as possible.
Gaelic and Champ as a front running pair might suit Mullins.

I just have the feeling that if Hermes wants to lead then the Mullins lot may say Go for it.
But they may be very keen to lead themselves.
Very tricky race to call from a tactical point of view.
Gaelic is the spanner, in more ways than one.:highly_amused:

 

[Benjy23]

Yeah, you can already see on the exchange that Hermes is going to be around 7/2 4-1, and then the Mullins main 2 probably similar. With the townend ride probably close to FAV.
Very open race, means Good Land or Champ may touch double figures.
assuming all declared obviously.

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

Agree the likes of Good Land likely to prove unpopular and end up a nice price. I guess Marine National winning the Supreme is the only thing that may prevent that. And CK is already plenty big enough but as third string he's likely to drift even further.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

Agree the likes of Good Land likely to prove unpopular and end up a nice price. I guess Marine National winning the Supreme is the only thing that may prevent that. And CK is already plenty big enough but as third string he's likely to drift even further.

That would suit me fine if MN winning the Supreme is the only thing preventing GL going bigger price, as already done the double. If MN loses I may be able to get a nice price on GL, I like his chances.

 

[Quevega]

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

Agree the likes of Good Land likely to prove unpopular and end up a nice price. I guess Marine National winning the Supreme is the only thing that may prevent that. And CK is already plenty big enough but as third string he's likely to drift even further.

Absolutely