2023 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Ice]

Have many of you guys done the marine nationale/good land double ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Who will lead ?

I can't see any of them being held up tbh. Champ Kiely, Gaelic Warrior, Hermes Allen & Good Land will all want to get on with it tbh.

Champ Kiely has to lead, IMO. His run in the Royal Bond where he was held in mid division early, I don't think played to his strengths, and it's been his only defeat so far this season.

Gaelic Warrior can probably let CK get on with and track him, but he does like to get on with things, so to speak, and has led early enough in the majority of his races, including in last seasons run at the festival. He also jumps right handed, as you note. EVERY jockey in the race should be well aware of this though.

I think Hermes Allen can drop a little and track the leader(s) if need be, but his jumping may take him to the front. He can't be too far off the pace IMO, as I don't believe he has a proper turn of foot, more of a galloper, although he quickened up nice enough in the Ballymore trial, but he was only going away from Music Drive which doesn't say much.

Good Land is also one that seems to want to race prominently, judging by what we've seen so far. I'm not saying he'll need to neccessarily lead, but he'll be up with the pace.

Impaire Et Passe is another who has been prominent, without needing to lead though, so he could drop in on the rail and track the leaders. He's the one I feel has the turn of foot, which is why I've made him by best winner in the race.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Have many of you guys done the marine nationale/good land double ?

I done it after the trainer told us both would win!!

 

[Dandrew99]

Gaelic is the spanner, in more ways than one.:highly_amused:

I've loved reading the commentary, but this is the best bit :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

OK, before it happens then, this is what I'm expecting, and the reason I'm expecting it is because Willie will have at least three runners in the race and he can get Paul on GW as he rides for RR a fair bit anyway.

I see it that where multiple horses are entered for Willie that Jacob will ride the Munir/Souede horses, provided it leaves Paul with a ride.

 

[Quevega]

I can't see any of them being held up tbh. Champ Kiely, Gaelic Warrior, Hermes Allen & Good Land will all want to get on with it tbh.

Champ Kiely has to lead, IMO. His run in the Royal Bond where he was held in mid division early, I don't think played to his strengths, and it's been his only defeat so far this season.

Gaelic Warrior can probably let CK get on with and track him, but he does like to get on with things, so to speak, and has led early enough in the majority of his races, including in last seasons run at the festival. He also jumps right handed, as you note. EVERY jockey in the race should be well aware of this though.

I think Hermes Allen can drop a little and track the leader(s) if need be, but his jumping may take him to the front. He can't be too far off the pace IMO, as I don't believe he has a proper turn of foot, more of a galloper, although he quickened up nice enough in the Ballymore trial, but he was only going away from Music Drive which doesn't say much.

Good Land is also one that seems to want to race prominently, judging by what we've seen so far. I'm not saying he'll need to neccessarily lead, but he'll be up with the pace.

Impaire Et Passe is another who has been prominent, without needing to lead though, so he could drop in on the rail and track the leaders. He's the one I feel has the turn of foot, which is why I've made him by best winner in the race.

Obviously they can't all lead.
That's the quandary.
And held up in this race is different to a 20 runner handicap, so maybe just off the pace is a better term.

But some will have to race where they've not been used to racing, for sure. It will inconvenience some more than others.
It'll probably boil down to ability anyway to be fair, it usually does, and there is enough space on this course for the best horse to prevail.
Unless there are incidents with the jumping.

 

[Ice]

They could end up going a suicidal pace and cutting each others throats up front.

 

[Exar Essay]

A bit of money for IEP for the Supreme in the last 24 hours. Not huge amounts but in to 11 on the exchange and out to 6 for the Ballymore. Perhaps better reflecting Willie's comments that his destination isn't set yet.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

A bit of money for IEP for the Supreme in the last 24 hours. Not huge amounts but in to 11 on the exchange and out to 6 for the Ballymore. Perhaps better reflecting Willie's comments that his destination isn't set yet.

Betfair moved IEP out to 5's yesterday for the Ballymore too :hopelessness:

 

[EnvoiAlien]

They could end up going a suicidal pace and cutting each others throats up front.

That'd suit Inthepocket who looks like a strong run race would be perfect for him,on a line through Absolute Notions he should be of as much interest to people as Good Land for this yet he's around 9 points bigger with most books, has form on good,soft & heavy so won't mind what the ground comes up like either so that's one less equation to worry about.

 

[Exar Essay]

Betfair moved IEP out to 5's yesterday for the Ballymore too :hopelessness:

Ah, in some ways that might explain the exchange moves. Betfair balancing their books and the exchange adjusting and also guessing that Betfair are ITK.

 

[Winging The Last]

A bit of money for IEP for the Supreme in the last 24 hours. Not huge amounts but in to 11 on the exchange and out to 6 for the Ballymore. Perhaps better reflecting Willie's comments that his destination isn't set yet.

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.​


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

 

[Quevega]

That'd suit Inthepocket who looks like a strong run race would be perfect for him,on a line through Absolute Notions he should be of as much interest to people as Good Land for this yet he's around 9 points bigger with most books, has form on good,soft & heavy so won't mind what the ground comes up like either so that's one less equation to worry about.

I had him down, if running as one that may be a decent each way price on the day.
I wouldn't risk him now personally, although that may bite me if the race really cuts up.
If the top 5 or 6 in the betting get declared then he has to be 16-1+ I reckon, unless he gets talked up by high profile pundits etc.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Ah, in some ways that might explain the exchange moves. Betfair balancing their books and the exchange adjusting and also guessing that Betfair are ITK.

Yeah, they pushed him out to 11/2 for a very short space of time before bringing back to 5/1. He was 4/1 standout with them though. I wonder how long the 5/1 will last.

 

[Exar Essay]

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.​


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

Yes, fair. And also Dark Raven mentioned for the Supreme. Would be highly unlikely all 3 head that way.

 

[Quevega]

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.​


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

Hunters Yarn is one of the few Novices with 4 runs though.

So the other way may be the county (depending on his UK mark and them being happy with it of course) Obviously his IRE rating of 143 doesn't look promising, but it is another way of splitting his many novices this season.

At the moment he has mentioned the supreme and ballymore for 5 or 6 horses each race.

Unless he comes in mob handed then some will go handicapping or skip I reckon even if the mark is not percieved as "handy".

A supreme winner would need to be around 155 minimum, so any horse of Willie's rated high 140's ought to be competitive in a county hurdle really.

 

[Winging The Last]

Hunters Yarn is one of the few Novices with 4 runs though.

So the other way may be the county (depending on his UK mark and them being happy with it of course) Obviously his IRE rating of 143 doesn't look promising, but it is another way of splitting his many novices this season.

At the moment he has mentioned the supreme and ballymore for 5 or 6 horses each race.

Unless he comes in mob handed then some will go handicapping or skip I reckon even if the mark is not percieved as "handy".

A supreme winner would need to be around 155 minimum, so any horse of Willie's rated high 140's ought to be competitive in a county hurdle really.

He is but following his win the other day and his new rating I can't see him going for a handicap now.

Willie has said since that he's most likely bound for the Supreme

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I had him down, if running as one that may be a decent each way price on the day.
I wouldn't risk him now personally, although that may bite me if the race really cuts up.
If the top 5 or 6 in the betting get declared then he has to be 16-1+ I reckon, unless he gets talked up by high profile pundits etc.

I wouldn't worry about it cutting up too much Q,Willie will be running 7 or 8 so you'll get a minimum field of 10 so the ew plays will be safe :biggrin-new:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, they pushed him out to 11/2 for a very short space of time before bringing back to 5/1. He was 4/1 standout with them though. I wonder how long the 5/1 will last.

Into 9/2 now :highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

I wouldn't worry about it cutting up too much Q,Willie will be running 7 or 8 so you'll get a minimum field of 10 so the ew plays will be safe :biggrin-new:

:highly_amused: I know Willie is dominant (A Man's world) this is a joke and is definitely not blatant mysogyny, as i love women and watch them most days.

But it would be some statement if he does run 5 or 6 in each of the supreme and ballymore.
Not sure he will though as they all won't be pleasing him near the day and there are other spring festivals for him to sway the owners with.