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2023 Arkle Novices Chase

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I'm not sure about El Fab being unlucky at Aintree to be honest. I assume you're going for him being slightly hampered 3 out but he's well recovered from that has every chance to go by Jonbon on the run in and was just out gunned.

Should've had everything in his favour there as well, with Jonbon coming off the back of a tough race at Cheltenham and him being fresh.

And now Jonbon is a better jumper of a fence of the pair. See every reason that winning distance will be increased :smiley_simmons:
 
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AaronLad said:
This is pretty bias shite :devilish:
You rate el fabiolo but you think the only horse to have beaten him( since joining wpm) is shite :boxing:
If Jonbon was ridden how kilcruit was in the supreme he wouldn't have been only 2 lengths ahead of him at the end, i think you know this.
Jonbon is unbeaten over fences, you can only beat what's in front of you.
Based on chase form this year, El fabiolo is trained in ireland where the strength in depth is much greater, means it's pretty long odds on the best irish 2 miler would have better form than the best british 2 miler pre cheltenham, no? :barbershop_quartet_member:
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Very well said Aaron .
Bit of mischievous behaviour me thinks!
 
Jonbon was significantly more experienced than El Fab when they met at Aintree & is a year older. That’s been under played in a lot of peoples opinions but it’s an important point. The gulf in experience & physical development/maturity has been eclipsed this season.
 
Haha, not had a drink but definitely mischievous :loyal:

Also, not biased, I'm on both and for nice returns ;) AaronLad


Still, not sure any of your counter points make me think any differently though, I do rate El Fabiolo, he has the best chase form IMO so I don't mind that he got beaten over hurdles. I didn't say it was unlucky myself, I know some people believe that and I'd be one however I won't use that to back my own point...
You also said you can only beat what's put in front of you, which is true BUT then when you meet the big boys, that experience of running in a proper race will count.... you have dismissed my point there because it's obvious that the Irish have better form beforehand, my point is that is hugely relevant... that's why they keep winning the Prestbury cup and thrashing the UK based horses.


:triumphant:
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha, not had a drink but definitely mischievous :loyal:

Also, not biased, I'm on both and for nice returns ;) AaronLad


Still, not sure any of your counter points make me think any differently though, I do rate El Fabiolo, he has the best chase form IMO so I don't mind that he got beaten over hurdles.
You can only beat what's put in front of you, but then when you meet the big boys, that experience of running in a proper race will count.... you have dismissed my point there because it's obvious that the Irish have better form beforehand, my point is that is hugely relevant... that's why they keep winning the Prestbury cup and thrashing the UK based horses.


:triumphant:
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It is a relevant point, but so is the one where jonbon has already shown his backside to el fabiolo :cheerful:
 
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AaronLad said:
It is a relevant point, but so is the one where jonbon has already shown his backside to el fabiolo :cheerful:
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Well yeah, over hurdles and even then it was hardly comprehensive that you'd be adament he'd do it every time they met?

As hurdlers, more inexperienced, they were very close.

What I'm saying is now, El Fabiolo's chase form puts him ahead....



Easy for me to argue when I'm on both :loyal:
 
Benjy23 said:
I'm not sure about El Fab being unlucky at Aintree to be honest. I assume you're going for him being slightly hampered 3 out but he's well recovered from that has every chance to go by Jonbon on the run in and was just out gunned.

Should've had everything in his favour there as well, with Jonbon coming off the back of a tough race at Cheltenham and him being fresh.

And now Jonbon is a better jumper of a fence of the pair. See every reason that winning distance will be increased :smiley_simmons:
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Him coming out of a tough race, he got beat 22L .... might as well have been eased down out the back.... that's not evidence...

...and who is to say El Fabiolo missing Cheltenham means he had a perfect prep... he missed Cheltenham because of a set back, not because he was turning up at Aintree as the plan.


With less experience going in to that race, and the way it panned out, and how close he got, I think it's foolish to be convinced Jonbon was the better horse as a hurdler...

That said, I am not using that in my case for El Fab, I don't even care if he wasn't (even though if pressed, I'd back El Fabiolo to beat Jonbon over hurdlers right now)...

What I don't agree with, is that Jonbon is a better chaser. For me, he's got worse form.




Lough Derg Spirit is the best hurdler I've seen in terms of technique .... but way, way below top level. So Jonbon jumping better is only relative to his ability, for me, El Fabiolo is now a superior horse, even if he hasn't looked as good so far in hi 'jumping'.... which of course I would also argue, it's easier to look good against shite..... whereas El Fabiolo's best piece of form, was against actual festival winners, albiet hurdle winners.




Jonbon hasn't shown me a chase run that puts him ahead of Appreciate It or Banbridge yet..... he hasn't had to run against anything that good either.... but his last run was average at best.... El Fabiolo's last run was mustard.

When they're the same price, surely you can see my point :indecisiveness: ....

At 4/1, I'd be walloping Jonbon :glee:
 
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Kevloaf said:
Him coming out of a tough race, he got beat 22L .... might as well have been eased down out the back.... that's not evidence...

...and who is to say El Fabiolo missing Cheltenham means he had a perfect prep... he missed Cheltenham because of a set back, not because he was turning up at Aintree as the plan.


With less experience going in to that race, and the way it panned out, and how close he got, I think it's foolish to be convinced Jonbon was the better horse as a hurdler...

That said, I am not using that in my case for El Fab, I don't even care if he wasn't (even though if pressed, I'd back El Fabiolo to beat Jonbon over hurdlers right now)...

What I don't agree with, is that Jonbon is a better chaser. For me, he's got worse form.




Lough Derg Spirit is the best hurdler I've seen in terms of technique .... but way, way below top level. So Jonbon jumping better is only relative to his ability, for me, El Fabiolo is now a superior horse, even if he hasn't looked as good so far in hi 'jumping'.... which of course I would also argue, it's easier to look good against shite..... whereas El Fabiolo's best piece of form, was against actual festival winners, albiet hurdle winners.




Jonbon hasn't shown me a chase run that puts him ahead of Appreciate It or Banbridge yet..... he hasn't had to run against anything that good either.... but his last run was average at best.... El Fabiolo's last run was mustard.

When they're the same price, surely you can see my point :indecisiveness: ....

At 4/1, I'd be walloping Jonbon :glee:
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He was up challenging Constitution Hill in the Supreme (and DD) and paid the price. That's bound to have taken its toll. Using distance beaten as the judgement of having a hard race doesn't really work like. Facile Vega a recent example of one that didn't have an easy race and was beaten a long way...

He's got worse form in chases on the face of it but he's still unbeaten, so it's an unknown level of form. And he proved himself a better hurdler of the pair. On all known evidence he's a better jumper of a fence. So why would he not be a better chaser of the pair. Think the markets got it about right to be honest, and I'd still be siding with Jonbon, if I needed to.

I reckon Jacob getting jocked off for Townend is a negative in terms of El Fab as well. Make of that what you will... :indecisiveness:
 
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Benjy23 said:
He was up challenging Constitution Hill in the Supreme (and DD) and paid the price. That's bound to have taken its toll. Using distance beaten as the judgement of having a hard race doesn't really work like. Facile Vega a recent example of one that didn't have an easy race and was beaten a long way...

He's got worse form in chases on the face of it but he's still unbeaten, so it's an unknown level of form. And he proved himself a better hurdler of the pair. On all known evidence he's a better jumper of a fence. So why would he not be a better chaser of the pair. Think the markets got it about right to be honest, and I'd still be siding with Jonbon, if I needed to.

I reckon Jacob getting jocked off for Townend is a negative in terms of El Fab as well. Make of that what you will... :indecisiveness:
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:encouragement: Fair enough ...... I think ......

I'd have Paul Townend in a different league to Daryl Jacob

I'd say challenging Constitution Hill and still getting beaten 22L doesn't bode particularly well as a defense, toll or not... you can't have it both ways in terms of form

I'd say it's easier to look good jumping against horses you're way better than...if Jonbon had faced Banbridge or Appreciate It I'm not sure he'd look the most natural so far.

I'd say the market has it wrong, El Fabiolo should be fav and will win :star:




That's all just to keep things going though :love_heart:...... In a way (but not really) it is a shame that I've got such a decent return on Jonbon, as I do think if I didn't have it, I'd still be really bullish on El Fab to beat him.... but I don't know for sure.... maybe I'd be terrified of him... it is hard to tell when it's just not the case. Backed both in a roll up on the same horse so been settled since October or whenever it was.:angel:

Great clash ahead..... I don't know if I want one to spank the other, or them be close again! I suppose a close finish keeps their rivalry going for a long time.... either way... no excuses come the end.... If Jonbon wallops El Fabiolo I'll hold my hands up. Right now, if I could only have 1, it'd 100% be El Fabiolo though

:nevreness:
 
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SeanRock said:
How much have you got on the Prestbury Cup staying at home this year Carnage at Taunton, I can’t recall you fancying much from across the pond. A loyal home fan!
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Hahaha, Prestbury cup means absolutely Jack to me!! I do try to stick up for to the brits, but really only to attempt a sort of balancing thing, and mainly in a discussion/debate scenario.
My bets though are very much …… really don’t care where the horse is trained.
 
Kevloaf said:
:encouragement: Fair enough ...... I think ......

I'd have Paul Townend in a different league to Daryl Jacob

I'd say challenging Constitution Hill and still getting beaten 22L doesn't bode particularly well as a defense, toll or not... you can't have it both ways in terms of form

I'd say it's easier to look good jumping against horses you're way better than...if Jonbon had faced Banbridge or Appreciate It I'm not sure he'd look the most natural so far.

I'd say the market has it wrong, El Fabiolo should be fav and will win :star:




That's all just to keep things going though :love_heart:...... In a way (but not really) it is a shame that I've got such a decent return on Jonbon, as I do think if I didn't have it, I'd still be really bullish on El Fab to beat him.... but I don't know for sure.... maybe I'd be terrified of him... it is hard to tell when it's just not the case. Backed both in a roll up on the same horse so been settled since October or whenever it was.:angel:

Great clash ahead..... I don't know if I want one to spank the other, or them be close again! I suppose a close finish keeps their rivalry going for a long time.... either way... no excuses come the end.... If Jonbon wallops El Fabiolo I'll hold my hands up. Right now, if I could only have 1, it'd 100% be El Fabiolo though

:nevreness:
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Aye, it's a lovely position to be in for you. I'm very much on the financial biased side of Jonbon to be honest. But I'm fucked if I'm losing confidence now :welcoming:

For the record I'd also have Townend a better all round jockey than Jacob. I just don't like the idea of switching jockeys following a career best performance. And the boys from the Mullins camp were saying he was a tough ride the other day at one of the previews I'm sure...



​​​​
 
Kevloaf said:
:encouragement: Fair enough ...... I think ......

I'd have Paul Townend in a different league to Daryl Jacob

I'd say challenging Constitution Hill and still getting beaten 22L doesn't bode particularly well as a defense, toll or not... you can't have it both ways in terms of form

I'd say it's easier to look good jumping against horses you're way better than...if Jonbon had faced Banbridge or Appreciate It I'm not sure he'd look the most natural so far.

I'd say the market has it wrong, El Fabiolo should be fav and will win :star:




That's all just to keep things going though :love_heart:...... In a way (but not really) it is a shame that I've got such a decent return on Jonbon, as I do think if I didn't have it, I'd still be really bullish on El Fab to beat him.... but I don't know for sure.... maybe I'd be terrified of him... it is hard to tell when it's just not the case. Backed both in a roll up on the same horse so been settled since October or whenever it was.:angel:

Great clash ahead..... I don't know if I want one to spank the other, or them be close again! I suppose a close finish keeps their rivalry going for a long time.... either way... no excuses come the end.... If Jonbon wallops El Fabiolo I'll hold my hands up. Right now, if I could only have 1, it'd 100% be El Fabiolo though

:nevreness:
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In other words, you know as much as the rest of us!!:biggrin-new:
 
Benjy23 said:
Aye, it's a lovely position to be in for you. I'm very much on the financial biased side of Jonbon to be honest. But I'm fucked if I'm losing confidence now :welcoming:

For the record I'd also have Townend a better all round jockey than Jacob. I just don't like the idea of switching jockeys following a career best performance. And the boys from the Mullins camp were saying he was a tough ride the other day at one of the previews I'm sure...



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Yeah I took note of that too. Mikey Fogharty said he’s a very strong horse and that only the stronger riders can ride him out (of which he is one of course). Townend has ridden him well though previously so I’m not worried.
 
El fabiolo should be even money fav really

His form is miles better

And that run from jonbon last time was awful
 
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Benjy23 said:
Aye, it's a lovely position to be in for you. I'm very much on the financial biased side of Jonbon to be honest. But I'm fucked if I'm losing confidence now :welcoming:

For the record I'd also have Townend a better all round jockey than Jacob. I just don't like the idea of switching jockeys following a career best performance. And the boys from the Mullins camp were saying he was a tough ride the other day at one of the previews I'm sure...



​​​​
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DJ is imo as good as PT, no way would I ever place a bet on the strength of one being that much better than the other, both perfectly capable and amongst the best around.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Hahaha, bless you
Dont know about you , but this race kind of sums up what the festival means to me.
Big hopes for the future from both sides of the sea, bit of rivalry and all that, and unknown potential to boot….. just bloody love it!!!
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Haha, yeah I get that.:encouragement:

To be honest, myself..... when I got in to NH racing, Nicholls was the big dog, with the big 4, but he had Ruby .... so I didn't know there was a UK vs Irish thing really (friendly as it is of course).... then Frankel, but Aidan O'Brien was clearly incredible, so I loved both (although I still love Frankel more than anything, still my phone back ground instead of my wife) ..... and since then Willie is dominating but I don't care if a horse beats them being from the UK...I'd love Nicholls to dominate again but only because he was the big dog, not because he's from the UK.

I'm 35 now, so many it was more of a thing beforehand? Or maybe I'm an exception.

On a more general note, I do find it fascinating, 'when' you get in to a sport makes a difference and then you can get very defensive about it... for me when Douvan / Vautour / Faugheen were running, that was a golden era..... and I just about caught Kauto and Denman so I'm incredibly spoilt...but you don't have to go back that far and Istabraq was running...and I'm ignorant to just how special that would have been.... but I massively respect the people on here that were about then and can see the bigger picture... it's something we all should probably recognise. On the flip side, the ones who do rememebr the horses freom yesteryear, sometimes need to appreciate that things chance and things progress! Nothing specific in particular, just general musing :triumphant:

I remember when I'd been on here a while and some people thought Thistlecrack was the best stayer ever....and I hated it, despite knowing Thistlecrack was fantastic... but then it made me realise I'd have been like that about Big Bucks, and I'm sure people from even 5 years before would think the same about me when they have a plethora of wonderful stayers to choose from.



Gone off on a tangent there but "just bloody love it".... me too :star:
 
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