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2023 Antepost Flat Racing

The lincoln next week
Looking at the last 10 years there seems to be a sweet spot rating of between 99-102, with the majority of horses being aged 4 and 5 having their first run of the season. In 2013 when this didnt apply, no horses fitted the above criteria.
* I have discounted Totally Charming and Emporio as they ran in the Irish Lincoln yesterday
Which leaves 5 horses
Saga
Atrium
Great Max
Awaal
Empirestateofmind

Ive read that Great Max may be going else where so leaves us with potentially 4 on the list.

With further confirmation bias of the stats all of the 4 year olds that won in the last 10 years were rated 99 or 100. Which leaves only Atrium standing from the 4 year olds :barbershop_quartet_member:

but my pick here is Empirestateofmind
5 year old, rated 99, first run of season and looks like its improving
 
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3 horses left who fit the last 10 year trends

Atrium
Awaal
Empirestateofmind

I have already backed Atrium and Empirestateofmind earlier this week and will leave it at that
 
Iv backed 3 last week or so

atrium 12s
Al mubhir 8s
Saver wanees 10s

All unexposed 4yos rated high 90s that won their last 3yo start and come here fresh

All drawn 10 or higher so hopefully high is the place to be drawn

Al mubhir been very strong in the market since haggas won the Irish Lincoln and will love the soft ground

I'm finding it's worth reading the price wise tips on the ante post races not because of his tips but because you get to read several quotes from trainers on what is likely to run and if the race has been the target for a while. You also get the trends for the race in the article too which always help to narrow down selections in these handicaps

Going currently soft/heavy in places
 
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Backed Empirestateofmind at 20s and Migration at 25s. Both each way with the extra places.

Be disappointed if neither can finish in the first 6 or 7 :welcoming:

Think Kings Lynn might be a bet in the 6f race earlier on the card but welcoming opinions...
 
BURGLAR (Cracksman) Loved the way he finished his debut race at Lingfield in February and have taken 40/1 for the Derby before he runs again tomorrow.
 
…Hills have a number of ‘win today’ & Derby/1,000 gns offers for tomorrows racing in Ireland for anybody who thinks a classic winner might be on show.
 
Benjy23 said:
Backed Empirestateofmind at 20s and Migration at 25s. Both each way with the extra places.

Be disappointed if neither can finish in the first 6 or 7 :welcoming:

Think Kings Lynn might be a bet in the 6f race earlier on the card but welcoming opinions...
Click to expand...


Take a 25s winner of the first proper race to start the flat season. All down hill from here.

Bonus of placed money for the 7th as well on the other selection.

Kings Lynn a well backed loser as well. Shall we say unlucky :excitement:
 
Anyone know what aussie sprinters might come over for the Kings stand
 
Zachx02 said:
Anyone know what aussie sprinters might come over for the Kings stand
Click to expand...

Looks like nature strip won't be

"Nature Strip has been crowned the world's best sprinter and I guess that is questionable now whether he is at that same level," Waller said. "As champions deserve, we don't want to let him just follow them around for too long so Saturday's race is important for his career.

He didn't win that race this morning

May be retired

Coolangatta an intended runner

https://www.racingpost.com/news/int...coolangatta-set-for-royal-ascot-afLzD4K0F3tQ/
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Looks like nature strip won't be

"Nature Strip has been crowned the world's best sprinter and I guess that is questionable now whether he is at that same level," Waller said. "As champions deserve, we don't want to let him just follow them around for too long so Saturday's race is important for his career.

He didn't win that race this morning

May be retired

Coolangatta an intended runner

https://www.racingpost.com/news/int...coolangatta-set-for-royal-ascot-afLzD4K0F3tQ/
Click to expand...

Anything on giga kick at all, he'd be the one for me if he ran
 
Despite jockey bookings I've backed Denmark to win today at 3/1 and the Derby at 25/1. Alexandroupolis about half the price in both races now but I think Denmark has a great chance today. If he does win, I expect his Derby price will swap with Alexandroupolis.
 
When's Beginnings going to get a run? Missed todays trial due to ground. Anyone know when we'll see her next?
 
CJW said:
When's Beginnings going to get a run? Missed todays trial due to ground. Anyone know when we'll see her next?
Click to expand...

Prix Imprudence G3, deauville on Thursday. If anyone's interested.
 
CJW said:
Prix Imprudence G3, deauville on Thursday. If anyone's interested.
Click to expand...

She has very interesting breeding being out of the excellent winter and by a Japanese sire who has produced almond eye and panthalassa

Certainly worth watching
 
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Not sure what the qualification rules are now for European horses, but I notice 365 are a clear standout at 66/1 for Vauban in the Melbourne cup. Mullins namechecked the race a few times last year for him, and I got the feeling they were minding him this season and not being too hard on him with the future in mind. That could be next years champion hurdle, or it could be a flat campaign with Melbourne as the big target.
 
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With the news that kyprios has had a setback and will miss the first half of the season this becomes a much more interesting ante post race

I like mojo star but don’t trust him to stay sound

So have come down on
Eldar Eldarov 8/1
Lightly raced queens vase and St Leger winner looks potentially a high class 2m+ stayer in the making

He’s been trained and is bred (by dubawi out of a sea the stars mare) in a way that suggests he will be plenty better at 4 than he was at 3

He ran no race in the stayers race on champions day but 3yos have a very poor record in that race so happy to give him the benefit of the doubt

Without kyprios there is little to no depth in this division and they look vulnerable to a younger improver which I’m hoping will be Eldar Eldarov

Any significant improvement on his 116 rating puts him bang there with trueshan who is now 7 and as we are all aware is very ground dependant. So it’s not beyond the realms of possibility neither kyprios or trueshan turn up.

He landed me an antepost bet in the leger so hoping he can do so again.
 
I’m very satisfied with her, she’s wintered well. We had a very dry February and then a very wet March, so I’ve taken my time with her but I’m satisfied,” he told Nick Luck’s Daily Podcast.

“We’ve made no decision yet where she may start off. It may be the Irish Guineas, the French Guineas or the English Guineas but no decision will be made until later in the month, it depends on how she’s working.

“Some fillies come early in the season, some fillies take a little longer. It’s not a question of which Guineas (suits best), she’ll tell me when she’s ready.


"I think she could well go 10 furlongs (later in the season). Tarnawa got a mile and a half – she won the Vermeille, the Breeders’ Cup (Turf) – but I’d say this filly has more pace, so we’d be happy over a mile at the moment.”

Weld on tahiyra

I'd be very wary of English guineas and Arc bets judging by that
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
She has very interesting breeding being out of the excellent winter and by a Japanese sire who has produced almond eye and panthalassa

Certainly worth watching
Click to expand...

AOB has an unnamed Winter colt by Justify as well.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I’m very satisfied with her, she’s wintered well. We had a very dry February and then a very wet March, so I’ve taken my time with her but I’m satisfied,” he told Nick Luck’s Daily Podcast.

“We’ve made no decision yet where she may start off. It may be the Irish Guineas, the French Guineas or the English Guineas but no decision will be made until later in the month, it depends on how she’s working.

“Some fillies come early in the season, some fillies take a little longer. It’s not a question of which Guineas (suits best), she’ll tell me when she’s ready.


"I think she could well go 10 furlongs (later in the season). Tarnawa got a mile and a half – she won the Vermeille, the Breeders’ Cup (Turf) – but I’d say this filly has more pace, so we’d be happy over a mile at the moment.”

Weld on tahiyra

I'd be very wary of English guineas and Arc bets judging by that
Click to expand...

French guineas start, Arc finish. Do it Dermot!
 
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