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2022 Turners Novices Chase (ex Marsh)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
opatcho said:
Thanks for the heads up!

Gut feeling, My Drogo will be a NR
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Agree, which could make 4/1 on GOL look very nice. Not going on the Friday but if I was I'd have a bit of that !
 
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Looks like we will see My Drogo on Friday.....

“Everything has been good and I’m happy with him. He looks great and two and a half miles is a good starting point so we will see where we are with him. He started at Cheltenham last season in a bumper and I’m happy to get going over fences there with him.
“He has been good schooling but he has got to do it on the track. I don’t feel any extra pressure on my shoulders with him. I feel that we have got to go chasing make him the horse we think he is and he has always looked like a chaser. He is probably the highest-rated horse we have had go novice chasing and the highest-profile but at the end of the day they are all equal at the start.”

Third Time Lucki to run in the 2 miler on the Saturday.
 
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Lobos said:
Looks like we will see My Drogo on Friday.....

“Everything has been good and I’m happy with him. He looks great and two and a half miles is a good starting point so we will see where we are with him. He started at Cheltenham last season in a bumper and I’m happy to get going over fences there with him.
“He has been good schooling but he has got to do it on the track. I don’t feel any extra pressure on my shoulders with him. I feel that we have got to go chasing make him the horse we think he is and he has always looked like a chaser. He is probably the highest-rated horse we have had go novice chasing and the highest-profile but at the end of the day they are all equal at the start.”

Third Time Lucki to run in the 2 miler on the Saturday.
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If gin is in the same mood as she was last run, he'll have to be a decent animal to beat her first time up over fences I'd say.
 
Odin said:
If gin is in the same mood as she was last run, he'll have to be a decent animal to beat her first time up over fences I'd say.
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She will test him but Skelton and punters alike will be expecting My Drogo to win. It'll be disappointing if he's not good enough even taking into account GOL's fitness advantage.
 
Lobos said:
She will test him but Skelton and punters alike will be expecting My Drogo to win. It'll be disappointing if he's not good enough even taking into account GOL's fitness advantage.
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I’d agree with you there Lobos 100%.

Gin On Lime has done well over the summer as a second season novice winning some weak fields imo, the last 2 races were a better standard. She was 24lbs inferior to My Drogos hurdle rating and if he takes to fences I’m pretty sure he’ll post a 143+ chase rating on debut so she’ll need a massive improvement if My Drogo takes to the discipline which he’s expected to do.
 
It's all about the fences. She has lots of experience and he has none. If he gets turned over that doesn't mean he won't be the better horse in March. Similarly she can lose and still book her ticket with her penalty.

I won't be making any hasty decisions from the race unless one of them blows me away or completely disappoints.
 
Spectre said:
It's all about the fences. She has lots of experience and he has none. If he gets turned over that doesn't mean he won't be the better horse in March. Similarly she can lose and still book her ticket with her penalty.

I won't be making any hasty decisions from the race unless one of them blows me away or completely disappoints.
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This was more the angle I was going at. I fully expect my drogo to be the better horse by march, but his jumping could easily fall apart first time out if she puts him under enough pressure. 4/1 is a good price for her imo on this day
 
My Drogo backed into 4/6 from Evens for Friday. GOL out to 9/2.
 
Spectre said:
It's all about the fences. She has lots of experience and he has none. If he gets turned over that doesn't mean he won't be the better horse in March. Similarly she can lose and still book her ticket with her penalty.

I won't be making any hasty decisions from the race unless one of them blows me away or completely disappoints.
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I disagree Spectre. If My Drogo is to have a serious chance at the Fez then he needs to be winning Friday. All Skelton's have been running well first time and My Drogo will have been well schooled.
 
Even if he gets beat because of a few novicey mistakes and Skelton doesn't give him a hard race because of them Lobos? It's all part of the learning experience.

Gin On Lime is further ahead on her journey and this will be her fifth time over fences. This will be his first chase. If you watch her chase debut her jumping wasn't great at all, but since then she's improved, and she's now very good. If My Drogo makes the same mistakes she did on debut she'll beat him. If he doesn't he'll win if he's fit enough. But if he doesn't and he learns from it and then jumps well next time he'd reverse the form, because essentially underneath the bonnet there's a much better horse.

Some never take to fences at all, or aren't brave enough, and some are too brave and downright stupid, but the time to judge them isn't the first time they face them unless they are very good or unbelievably bad. If he's the latter I agree with you, and anything else I'd say you're wide of the mark. That said if he wins it's all immaterial anyway.
 
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Spectre said:
Even if he gets beat because of a few novicey mistakes and Skelton doesn't give him a hard race because of them Lobos? It's all part of the learning experience.

Gin On Lime is further ahead on her journey and this will be her fifth time over fences. This will be his first chase. If you watch her chase debut her jumping wasn't great at all, but since then she's improved, and she's now very good. If My Drogo makes the same mistakes she did on debut she'll beat him. If he doesn't he'll win if he's fit enough. But if he doesn't and he learns from it and then jumps well next time he'd reverse the form, because essentially underneath the bonnet there's a much better horse.

Some never take to fences at all, or aren't brave enough, and some are too brave and downright stupid, but the time to judge them isn't the first time they face them unless they are very good or unbelievably bad. If he's the latter I agree with you, and anything else I'd say you're wide of the mark. That said if he wins it's all immaterial anyway.
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8th time Spectre, she ran twice over fences last autumn too
 
Odin said:
This was more the angle I was going at. I fully expect my drogo to be the better horse by march, but his jumping could easily fall apart first time out if she puts him under enough pressure. 4/1 is a good price for her imo on this day
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Didn't realise GOL gives My Drogo 1lb, thought she received 7lb with the Mares allowance (and didn't have a penalty). It's now a no-bet race for me, and if his jumping holds, I'd expect Drogo to win.
 
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Odin said:
Didn't realise GOL gives My Drogo 1lb, thought she received 7lb with the Mares allowance (and didn't have a penalty). It's now a no-bet race for me, and if his jumping holds, I'd expect Drogo to win.
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Exactly. If My Drogo can't put her away on those terms then either he's crap or she's a bloody superstar!
 
Lobos said:
Exactly. If My Drogo can't put her away on those terms then either he's crap or she's a bloody superstar!
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Assuming his jumping holds, that's a fair assessment. Out of interest, if GOL was getting 7lb on Friday, would you be backing her or Drogo to win?
 
Not sure if it got mentioned earlier but the mighty Bob Olinger entered up Punchestown, 2m 3f beginners chase which if memory serves correctly is the race used by many top horses over the years, Champagne Fever being one…
 
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