2022 Turners Novices Chase (ex Marsh)

[charlie]

Anyone else thinking of covering GDC here? And/or Stayers!!

I wouldn't cover here. I appreciate a cover bet but they eek into profit and he looks all over a 3 miler.

 

[Lobos]

Anyone else thinking of covering GDC here? And/or Stayers!!

Yep. Already done. Think he has more speed than GDM but more likely that both will end up in the RSA imo

 

[Lobos]

I wouldn't cover here. I appreciate a cover bet but they eek into profit and he looks all over a 3 miler.

RP tour States following which might make a cover here a sensible option.....
Galopin Des Champs
5g Timos - Manon Des Champs
Mrs Audrey Turley
12P61-1
RPR 161h OR 155h
I'd imagine we'll go chasing with him. He certainly has plenty of stamina and showed that over three miles at the Punchestown festival, but I don't think he's short of speed either. I'm hoping that over fences this season he can show that.
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[Topofthegame2021]

I’d just like to get this on record so that when it happens I can quote this comment.

I really really believe that Ferny Hollow will come here and will win too!

16/1 currently which I think is pretty decent. The stable tours coming out over the last couple of days have just re affirmed my beliefs.

IMO the only way Appreciate it steps up in trip is if he’s beaten over 2miles. I can’t see that happening, well, before the fez anyway :cheerful:

 

[Buckingham]

Hi, first post here so go easy. Agree with Topofthegame that this seems the most likely destination for Ferny Hollow.

Willie has confirmed he is going chasing
He is also clear that Appreciate It is targeted at the Arkle, with heavy implications that he is no. 1
He doesn't have another outstanding candidate for the Marsh (Appreciate It (Arkle), Klassical Dream (Stayers), GDC (RSA), James Du Berlais (injured) - leaves only Ferny and GDM for the Marsh)
Ferny is by Westerner out of a Good Thyne mare - there is plenty of stamina in both sides of the pedigree. 90% of Westerner's best performers recorded their best RPR over further than 2.5 miles (and most over 3m). There are the odd exception (Western W**horse anyone!) but generally his progeny need a trip.
Patrick Mullins also said in one of his previews (on ATR I think) when discussing hurdling/chasing for Ferny that it was hard to see a Westerner winning the Champion Hurdle so they must haver doubts about his speed.
He has already beaten Bob Olinger over hurdles so they will fancy their chances of doing so again.

Of course things may change (e.g. defeat for Appreciate It, Ferny can't jump, Ferny not as good after injury etc...) but at the moment I think he's most likely coming here.

 

[Topofthegame2021]

Hi, first post here so go easy. Agree with Topofthegame that this seems the most likely destination for Ferny Hollow.

Willie has confirmed he is going chasing
He is also clear that Appreciate It is targeted at the Arkle, with heavy implications that he is no. 1
He doesn't have another outstanding candidate for the Marsh (Appreciate It (Arkle), Klassical Dream (Stayers), GDC (RSA), James Du Berlais (injured) - leaves only Ferny and GDM for the Marsh)
Ferny is by Westerner out of a Good Thyne mare - there is plenty of stamina in both sides of the pedigree. 90% of Westerner's best performers recorded their best RPR over further than 2.5 miles (and most over 3m). There are the odd exception (Western W**horse anyone!) but generally his progeny need a trip.
Patrick Mullins also said in one of his previews (on ATR I think) when discussing hurdling/chasing for Ferny that it was hard to see a Westerner winning the Champion Hurdle so they must haver doubts about his speed.
He has already beaten Bob Olinger over hurdles so they will fancy their chances of doing so again.

Of course things may change (e.g. defeat for Appreciate It, Ferny can't jump, Ferny not as good after injury etc...) but at the moment I think he's most likely coming here.

Great post Buckingham.. pretty much puts my lousy effort to shame!! :glee:

 

[charlie]

Hi, first post here so go easy. Agree with Topofthegame that this seems the most likely destination for Ferny Hollow.

Willie has confirmed he is going chasing
He is also clear that Appreciate It is targeted at the Arkle, with heavy implications that he is no. 1
He doesn't have another outstanding candidate for the Marsh (Appreciate It (Arkle), Klassical Dream (Stayers), GDC (RSA), James Du Berlais (injured) - leaves only Ferny and GDM for the Marsh)
Ferny is by Westerner out of a Good Thyne mare - there is plenty of stamina in both sides of the pedigree. 90% of Westerner's best performers recorded their best RPR over further than 2.5 miles (and most over 3m). There are the odd exception (Western W**horse anyone!) but generally his progeny need a trip.
Patrick Mullins also said in one of his previews (on ATR I think) when discussing hurdling/chasing for Ferny that it was hard to see a Westerner winning the Champion Hurdle so they must haver doubts about his speed.
He has already beaten Bob Olinger over hurdles so they will fancy their chances of doing so again.

Of course things may change (e.g. defeat for Appreciate It, Ferny can't jump, Ferny not as good after injury etc...) but at the moment I think he's most likely coming here.

I don't agree, but great first post! Any case with this much thought deserves respect. Welcome to the Forum

 

[RufusFlynn]

I could see Concertista coming here. 152 rated hurdler, its a nice place to start from when going novice chasing. Maybe assuming the mares chase is the wrong way to go..

Was just coming to similar to this - not guaranteed that she goes Mares Chase. The mid trip would suit and would receive weight from the boys.

Th owners like a runner in the race and James du Berlais out for the season.

 

[Outlaw]

Was just coming to similar to this - not guaranteed that she goes Mares Chase. The mid trip would suit and would receive weight from the boys.

Th owners like a runner in the race and James du Berlais out for the season.

The Mares is the intermediate trip too.

 

[charlie]

I could see Concertista coming here. 152 rated hurdler, its a nice place to start from when going novice chasing. Maybe assuming the mares chase is the wrong way to go..

I can't see Concertista coming here. Willie goes for the easiest most winnable race, pretty much always.

Taking Concertista out of a division racing against her own sex to run her into the likes of BO would be the most unlike Willie thing to do ever - it's just not how he campaigns his racehorses.

This, coupled with him citing the mares chase specifically, make this race highly highly unlikely IMO.

We also have the added benefit of knowing Willie is happy to be mob handed in the Mares Chase, and, in recent years it's not like he's had a stand out here and worried about it (last year he sent AF (14/1) and Blackbow (40/1) for example).

Not impossible, but nearly impossible. :tongue-new:

 

[Lobos]

Is Lifetime Ambition priced up anywhere for this ? Has anyone actually backed him after his superb win on Friday ? Seems odd he's been overlooked .

 

[PresentingPercy]

Is Lifetime Ambition priced up anywhere for this ? Has anyone actually backed him after his superb win on Friday ? Seems odd he's been overlooked .

16s with most of the cashout firms, but I took 20s (boosted to 22s) with WH. Price still available from what I see

 

[Birds Nest]

I can't see Concertista coming here. Willie goes for the easiest most winnable race, pretty much always.

Taking Concertista out of a division racing against her own sex to run her into the likes of BO would be the most unlike Willie thing to do ever - it's just not how he campaigns his racehorses.

This, coupled with him citing the mares chase specifically, make this race highly highly unlikely IMO.

We also have the added benefit of knowing Willie is happy to be mob handed in the Mares Chase, and, in recent years it's not like he's had a stand out here and worried about it (last year he sent AF (14/1) and Blackbow (40/1) for example).

Not impossible, but nearly impossible. :tongue-new:

Yes i agree with you on all of that, the reason i thought of this race for her was a 'think out the box' idea really. It just occurred to me how willie is a bit more mob handed now and in all reality elimay is more than good enough to wun this anyway with Gauloise as a back up, would he not be tempted with concertista,152 hurdler, with her allowance, to take on the boys? Imo that would be wasted in the mares chase. HDB has an mo for this sort of thing and lots of us were getting quite excited about Gin on lime goin to the arkle so why wouldnt willie not see the same advantages himself and to be honest concertista ,even with minimum improvement over fences, would smash gin on lime out of the park and serve it upto the best of the boys. Just a thought and obviously unlikely, but trainers are catching on and will start replicating HDB with his mo sooner rather than later.

 

[Spectre]

I think potentially Willie may consider the open novice hurdles rather than the Mares Novice Hurdle for one or two of his novice mares, but I can't see Concertista going anywhere other than the Mares Chase for exactly the reasons Charlie gives.

 

[jono]

Slightly surprised Bob Olinger didn't get a Drinmore entry today.
Elliott seems to have settled on a nice timeline for his novice chasers and that race, with a beginners chase at the Down Royal meeting and then enough time to take in the Drinmore a month later. Otherwise it can come a little too soon for many (certainly for Mullins)

So it is quite a tight schedule. But it means that the easier route (aka Envoi Allen last season) of beginners chase > Drinmore > Punchestown 2m4 end of Jan will instead probably have to see him take in a race at Christmas time.

He's clearly versatile in terms of the ground, but would they want to send him to Limerick on the 26th? Can be a gruelling race on 'Limerick heavy'.
Could see them being tempted with the better ground at Leopardstown maybe.
Which i'm sure will get a lot of people nervous if he were to go for either the 2 or 3 mile grade 1 there. :uncomfortableness:

 

[Quevega]

Slightly surprised Bob Olinger didn't get a Drinmore entry today.
Elliott seems to have settled on a nice timeline for his novice chasers and that race, with a beginners chase at the Down Royal meeting and then enough time to take in the Drinmore a month later. Otherwise it can come a little too soon for many (certainly for Mullins)

So it is quite a tight schedule. But it means that the easier route (aka Envoi Allen last season) of beginners chase > Drinmore > Punchestown 2m4 end of Jan will instead probably have to see him take in a race at Christmas time.

He's clearly versatile in terms of the ground, but would they want to send him to Limerick on the 26th? Can be a gruelling race on 'Limerick heavy'.
Could see them being tempted with the better ground at Leopardstown maybe.
Which i'm sure will get a lot of people nervous if he were to go for either the 2 or 3 mile grade 1 there. :uncomfortableness:

I thought the same.
I mentioned a few times over the summer that I suspected he may meet appreciate it along the way.
Part of this is Henry seems to be more of a late starter, like Willie and their are not many middle distance grade 1's for novices.
However, he'll probably go low key, smaller prizes, grades, and go for all the spring grade 1's instead.
But he does seem to like the Leopardstown xmas race, that Willie likes. So fingers crossed.

 

[DeeBee]

Slightly surprised Bob Olinger didn't get a Drinmore entry today.
Elliott seems to have settled on a nice timeline for his novice chasers and that race, with a beginners chase at the Down Royal meeting and then enough time to take in the Drinmore a month later. Otherwise it can come a little too soon for many (certainly for Mullins)

So it is quite a tight schedule. But it means that the easier route (aka Envoi Allen last season) of beginners chase > Drinmore > Punchestown 2m4 end of Jan will instead probably have to see him take in a race at Christmas time.

He's clearly versatile in terms of the ground, but would they want to send him to Limerick on the 26th? Can be a gruelling race on 'Limerick heavy'.
Could see them being tempted with the better ground at Leopardstown maybe.
Which i'm sure will get a lot of people nervous if he were to go for either the 2 or 3 mile grade 1 there. :uncomfortableness:

I thought he might have had an entry at the minimum… I suppose Henry would be conscious or not wanting to be seen to be ‘copying’ Elliots path. Secondly it didn’t exactly work out well for Envoi (obviously there were other factors but still), and thirdly it does seem to come a little early as you’ve mentioned

Playing devils advocate here…imagine Agent Henry tests the waters against AI over 2.. if he beats him, Henry could suggest he’s sticking to 2 knowing it would likely push AI up in trip and FH down.. I’m reality though Henry is still aiming for the Marsh and goes there to take on AI who he has the measure of and avoid FH who he doesn’t

or he gets beat which confirms he ain’t a 2 miler :beaten:

or he wins which makes him stick to 2 :hopelessness:

anyone got a time machine :dejection:

 

[Hurdles or chasing]

Surprised he wasn't at least entered also. Saw an interview with Henry where he said he will run mid November and hes toying with the idea of the Dinmore. Obviously decided against it.

 

[Lobos]

Surprised he wasn't at least entered also. Saw an interview with Henry where he said he will run mid November and hes toying with the idea of the Dinmore. Obviously decided against it.

Maybe he's just a bit behind the rest or possibly picked up an injury.

 

[Lobos]

My Drogo and Gin On Lime entered over 2 1/2 miles next Friday at Cheltenham. My Drogo Evens, GOL 4/1.