2022 Stayers Hurdle

[Deleted member 4957]

Prices at 23/3/21

Flooring Porter 7/1
Thyme Hill 12/1
Sire du Berlais 16/1
Paisley Park 16/1
Vanillier 20/1
Duffel Coat 25/1
Champ 25/1
Roksana 33/1
Lisnagar Oscar 33/1

 

[Saxon Warrior]

BETTING NEWSFLASH

Flooring Porter

The 12/1 offered by Bet365 has finally been eaten up, and now its 10/1

 

[Lobos]

Very, very surprised it's lasted this long. Was hugely impressive in winning this March. Absolutely destroyed them.

 

[Spectre]

But Klassical Dream surely comes here doesn't he? Setting price and value to one side for a moment, and if the race was this afternoon which camp would you be in? And what about Thyme Hill? Very fashionable last season before being pulled out, but nobody seems that interested in him this season?

I know Willie's first reaction was fences for KD after Punchestown, but I think everyone pretty much thinks he stays over hurdles. Has anyone heard any noises from Patrick or Ruby?

I've mentioned previously I wonder if Flooring Porter is the same horse if taken on for the lead. That said 12/1 and now 10/1 has been and is one of the standout prices available.

Thyme Hill on paper may actually be the more solid/safer option of the three?

 

[Craigy14]

But Klassical Dream surely comes here doesn't he? Setting price and value to one side for a moment, and if the race was this afternoon which camp would you be in? And what about Thyme Hill? Very fashionable last season before being pulled out, but nobody seems that interested in him this season?

I know Willie's first reaction was fences for KD after Punchestown, but I think everyone pretty much thinks he stays over hurdles. Has anyone heard any noises from Patrick or Ruby?

I've mentioned previously I wonder if Flooring Porter is the same horse if taken on for the lead. That said 12/1 and now 10/1 has been and is one of the standout prices available.

Thyme Hill on paper may actually be the more solid/safer option of the three?

I like Thyme Hill too Spectre. Can’t understand the negativity behind him to be honest.

Surely can’t dismiss the form with Paisley Park, who after some issues, still managed to place in the stayers not all that far behind Flooring Porter.

Only thing I can think of is price, but right now I wouldn’t look past those 3.

 

[Eggs]

….no idea of plans or trainer quotes but I’ll throw Vanillier into the mix given how it handled Cheltenham. After winning an Albert Bartlett by 11 lengths, 33-1 in a place seems big to me given it’s as low as 16-1 elsewhere.

 

[Ice]

I like Thyme Hill too Spectre. Can’t understand the negativity behind him to be honest.

Surely can’t dismiss the form with Paisley Park, who after some issues, still managed to place in the stayers not all that far behind Flooring Porter.

Only thing I can think of is price, but right now I wouldn’t look past those 3.

I'm put off by the fact he's trained by Phillip hobbs and not in Ireland !

 

[PresentingPercy]

….no idea of plans or trainer quotes but I’ll throw Vanillier into the mix given how it handled Cheltenham. After winning an Albert Bartlett by 11 lengths, 33-1 in a place seems big to me given it’s as low as 16-1 elsewhere.

I seen it quoted from Cromwell last week that he is going chasing. Haven't seen the article but I have a few credible sources on twitter reporting it. Flooring Porter also being aimed at the Stayers once again.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thyme Hill on paper may actually be the more solid/safer option of the three?

Not a huge Thyme Hill fan, at least not for the festival anyway, maybe it's the trainer, I honestly don't know. He won't have the aid of Richard Johnson anymore either, surely a negative?

His Cheltenham form is solid, though I think he just lacks that little bit required to be winning, unless the race breaks up.

I think the Irish hold the key, so it would take Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter not turning up to cause me to re-think backing him at his current price (which he wouldn't be if they were both NR's). I have him in the Aintree special that someone pointed out before he won there, so it's not as if I don't have him covered for the race anyway, but he wouldn't be in my top two currently.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

I like Klassical Dream and clearly he has course form in the book as well as that Punchestown performance fresh in the memory. However with the question mark over whether he stays hurdling or not and his price being as short 4/1 in places I’ve no interest in backing him now.

 

[Lobos]

Nutjob Klassical Dream has to be the worst priced horse out there imo. Not for me at all !

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Not a huge Thyme Hill fan, at least not for the festival anyway, maybe it's the trainer, I honestly don't know. He won't have the aid of Richard Johnson anymore either, surely a negative?

His Cheltenham form is solid, though I think he just lacks that little bit required to be winning, unless the race breaks up.

I think the Irish hold the key, so it would take Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter not turning up to cause me to re-think backing him at his current price (which he wouldn't be if they were both NR's). I have him in the Aintree special that someone pointed out before he won there, so it's not as if I don't have him covered for the race anyway, but he wouldn't be in my top two currently.

Thyme Hill is about the same horse as Roksana on their races last year.
I just dont think thats enough, unless the race falls into becoming a average one or less.

 

[Lobos]

Paisley Park may start in B365 Hurdle at Wetherby this month and likely to stay over Hurdles for time being.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Paisley Park may start in B365 Hurdle at Wetherby this month and likely to stay over Hurdles for time being.

That's surprising Lobos. I thought the plan was to go chasing with him.

 

[Lobos]

That's surprising Lobos. I thought the plan was to go chasing with him.

Sounds like they've changed their minds. Seemed a stupid idea anyway.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thyme Hill is about the same horse as Roksana on their races last year.
I just dont think thats enough, unless the race falls into becoming a average one or less.

Yeah, this is how I would have it too, not sure why I didn't use the Roksana form line for my case :highly_amused:

 

[Craigy14]

I'm put off by the fact he's trained by Phillip hobbs and not in Ireland !

I get what you’re saying about the trainer, but in this instance with this horse surely it’s a bit unfounded?

He trained him perfectly last year, unlikely it was his fault he picked up an injury, Dickie clearly blamed himself for the loss to PP in the Long Walk. Won his first open race Grade 2 and also picked up an open Grade 1.

I understand the price isn’t appealing but in terms of the stayers he has to be up on peoples list surely.

 

[Ice]

I get what you’re saying about the trainer, but in this instance with this horse surely it’s a bit unfounded?

He trained him perfectly last year, unlikely it was his fault he picked up an injury, Dickie clearly blamed himself for the loss to PP in the Long Walk. Won his first open race Grade 2 and also picked up an open Grade 1.

I understand the price isn’t appealing but in terms of the stayers he has to be up on peoples list surely.

I do think he's a very good horse and to be fair i did back him last season so I'm not discounting him but after last years Irish dominance I'm finding myself looking in that direction, so far I've backed Flooring porter and Klassical dream.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Thyme Hill is about the same horse as Roksana on their races last year.
I just dont think thats enough, unless the race falls into becoming a average one or less.

Id say hes a few lengths better than her

Not loads but definitely better

Remember he hadn't run since December at Aintree

and he is still young enough and lightly raced enough to improve

And let's be honest hobbs had a mare last season, horses ran horribly so not beyond the realms of possibility that even thyme hill wasn't running to his best

I'm not saying he's a great value bet (think I'm more trying to retain hope in the aintree 21/Cheltenham 22 20/1 iv got on him)

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Id say hes a few lengths better than her

Not loads but definitely better

Remember he hadn't run since December at Aintree

and he is still young enough and lightly raced enough to improve

And let's be honest hobbs had a mare last season, horses ran horribly so not beyond the realms of possibility that even thyme hill wasn't running to his best

I'm not saying he's a great value bet (think I'm more trying to retain hope in the aintree 21/Cheltenham 22 20/1 iv got on him)

He had two goes at Roksana, and beat her
* one and three-quarter lengths the first time.
* by a Neck, second time
Theres not much difference, and Roxy wasn’t improving, as a 9yo.

Usually if horses are improving enough, the second season hurdling should be the one that catapults them forward.

As a verification, a comparison with Thyme Hill and Paisley was

* a Neck defeat of PP and
* a length and three quarter win, getting 3lb,
so a similar horse to Paisley Park, which is decent.

However, Paisley Park’s 2020/21 best was 8lb less, than his Stayers Hurdle best from 2 years previously.

That was shown when he was beaten 5 lengths into third in the 2021 Stayers Hurdle by a 6yo new kid on the block.

Thyme Hill, on form, was good enough in 2021, to be in the battle for 3rd and 4th in the Stayers with Paisley Park and Beacon Edge, in March.

He could improve to challenge this season, (personally I thought that last year was the year for him), and none of his form put him as the Stayers winner.

He probably still needs half-a-stone improvement, which for a 5/1 fav, going into his third year hurdling, makes him a poor price.
But………....the 20/1 that you have is more like it, and some value, if he can find a bit extra.