2022 Novice Chase Division

[charlie]

IF Ferny Hollow stays over hurdles what exactly should worry Appreciate It in the Arkle?

I've backed a fair few in behind Appreciate It should something happen to him, but for the many just in behind him in the betting it is more likely they go elsewhere, IMO, than Appreciate It stepping up in trip.

Do you think 11/4 about AI is a good bet now COD? If you have bigger, brag away :welcoming:

It's a good question COD, but I don't need opposition to knock AI's price (I've named a few anyway)

A lot can happen in 6 months - I hate that as a reason to oppose an ante post bet, but at prices that short you have to bring it into play.
We've never seen him jump a fence in public - highly likely he'll take to it given his size and breeding, but some don't.
He excelled last year in a division that was pure aids, it was terrible and I think he was flattered slightly (I concede the clock doesn't lie)
When he's faced a proper horse he's lost (Ferny and Envoi)
He can easily step up and go Marsh to slot into Mullins bingo, if thats the way it goes.
He's 7 going on 8 so connections may want to step up and take in a GC at 9, playing into a wider plan.

Is he the right favourite now, yes. Does the Arkle make the most sense now, yes. But that doesn't mean we cant rip him apart at 11/4, we have to. 11/4 ffs, the bookies really are bottle job bastards aren't they (I wonder what price I'd lay him at :highly_amused

Bob would probably beat AI over 2m. I could see a horse like Aspire Tower doing very well. Ferny will probably be better/faster over 2m. There are others we don't know about yet.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I put my ?10 free bet with paddy on ferny hollow to win the champion hurdle this morning at 13/1 so I'm fully expecting willie to announce he's going chasing in the next day or two haha

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Do you think 11/4 about AI is a good bet now COD? If you have bigger, brag away :welcoming:

It's a good question COD, but I don't need opposition to knock AI's price (I've named a few anyway)

A lot can happen in 6 months - I hate that as a reason to oppose an ante post bet, but at prices that short you have to bring it into play.
We've never seen him jump a fence in public - highly likely he'll take to it given his size and breeding, but some don't.
He excelled last year in a division that was pure aids, it was terrible and I think he was flattered slightly (I concede the clock doesn't lie)
When he's faced a proper horse he's lost (Ferny and Envoi)
He can easily step up and go Marsh to slot into Mullins bingo, if thats the way it goes.
He's 7 going on 8 so connections may want to step up and take in a GC at 9, playing into a wider plan.

Is he the right favourite now, yes. Does the Arkle make the most sense now, yes. But that doesn't mean we cant rip him apart at 11/4, we have to. 11/4 ffs, the bookies really are bottle job bastards aren't they (I wonder what price I'd lay him at :highly_amused

Bob would probably beat AI over 2m. I could see a horse like Aspire Tower doing very well. Ferny will probably be better/faster over 2m. There are others we don't know about yet.

11/4 is absolute pants.

Shishkin was 6/1 last year.
Bob Olinger is 10/1 Arkle, 4/1 Marsh.
Allaho 4/1 Ryanair.

Ive no interest in backing any horse at 11/4 five or six months in advance.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

11/4 is absolute pants.

Shishkin was 6/1 last year.
Bob Olinger is 10/1 Arkle, 4/1 Marsh.
Allaho 4/1 Ryanair.

Ive no interest in backing any horse at 11/4 five or six months in advance.

Yeah I agree.
If anyone is desperate to get a shortie onside then Honeysuckle at a similar price has to be a smarter play given the certainty of target and proven superiority over her rivals in the division.
But the point remains, 11/4 bets in October for races in March rarely offer much value…

 

[Ice]

I put my ?10 free bet with paddy on ferny hollow to win the champion hurdle this morning at 13/1 so I'm fully expecting willie to announce he's going chasing in the next day or two haha

I have also used free bets on ferny for the champion hurdle so like you am now expecting him to go chasing !

 

[Stormez]

Have thrown Magic Daze into a double with the the overpriced Flooring Porter, 662/1

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Have thrown Magic Daze into a double with the the overpriced Flooring Porter, 662/1

Is that Magic Daze Arkle Stormez ?
There’s been talk in here today about the Mares Chase, have to say with the mares allowance if she takes to fences I think she’d be a player in the Arkle…

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Do you think 11/4 about AI is a good bet now COD? If you have bigger, brag away :welcoming:

It's a good question COD, but I don't need opposition to knock AI's price (I've named a few anyway)

A lot can happen in 6 months - I hate that as a reason to oppose an ante post bet, but at prices that short you have to bring it into play.
We've never seen him jump a fence in public - highly likely he'll take to it given his size and breeding, but some don't.
He excelled last year in a division that was pure aids, it was terrible and I think he was flattered slightly (I concede the clock doesn't lie)
When he's faced a proper horse he's lost (Ferny and Envoi)
He can easily step up and go Marsh to slot into Mullins bingo, if thats the way it goes.
He's 7 going on 8 so connections may want to step up and take in a GC at 9, playing into a wider plan.

Is he the right favourite now, yes. Does the Arkle make the most sense now, yes. But that doesn't mean we cant rip him apart at 11/4, we have to. 11/4 ffs, the bookies really are bottle job bastards aren't they (I wonder what price I'd lay him at :highly_amused

Bob would probably beat AI over 2m. I could see a horse like Aspire Tower doing very well. Ferny will probably be better/faster over 2m. There are others we don't know about yet.

Haha unfortunately not much bigger, I took the 3's, he's more appeared in multiples than anything else, though do have him in a roll up at just under 12/1 too, but ultimately my aim by hook or by crook is to make profit from each race (obviously easier said than done) and he is the likeliest winner of the race, IMO, so he has to be part of my team sheet.

With regards to fences, not in public no, but he's been seen over them twice during his P2P days, if I can find the replays I'll post them, but based on them he'll be fine over a fence.

I wouldn't even consider Ferny Hollow until an entry over a fence, I think he's got unfinished business over hurdles and Willie won't rush to get him over the bigger obstacles given the army he is at his disposal for the coming season. Aspire Tower is staying over hurdles too according to connections so he won't be a bother to Appreciate It either.

I do agree regarding the bookmakers prices, was expecting at least 5/1 for the Arkle, and if Blue Lord had stayed on up the hill rather than falling then Appreciate It may not have had such an exaggerated win, and we may have seen bigger, instead it gave the bookmakers an opportunity to go shorter, because horses aren't meant to win Supremes by 24 lengths :biggrin-new:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

On paper Magic Daze looks like she has a fair bit to beat but ultimately she should be winning against a field where the majority need further.

Gabynako rightly the 2nd fav. I managed some 5/2 about Magic Daze before tomorrow. I'm surprised by the cut in price for the Mares Chase though. The way she performed over 2m at the festival, I don't see her needing to step up in trip just yet. May need to cover though through FOMO :highly_amused:

 

[SharpHat]

Ah yes, silly me. So Appreciate It going for Champion Hurdle in your eyes then ?

Ruby has confirmed AI goes chasing -

'With the strength in depth right now in Ireland’s open chasing division, picking one from that bracket is hard so the easy option is to pick either of the star novice hurdlers of last season who are going chasing, Appreciate It or Bob Olinger. You can follow both blind. Simple.'

 

[Lobos]

Ruby has confirmed AI goes chasing -

'With the strength in depth right now in Ireland’s open chasing division, picking one from that bracket is hard so the easy option is to pick either of the star novice hurdlers of last season who are going chasing, Appreciate It or Bob Olinger. You can follow both blind. Simple.'

We've been here many times with Ruby's comments:barbershop_quartet_member:I don't think many would disagree with him though.

 

[jack1092]

On paper Magic Daze looks like she has a fair bit to beat but ultimately she should be winning against a field where the majority need further.

Gabynako rightly the 2nd fav. I managed some 5/2 about Magic Daze before tomorrow. I'm surprised by the cut in price for the Mares Chase though. The way she performed over 2m at the festival, I don't see her needing to step up in trip just yet. May need to cover though through FOMO :highly_amused:

Will make interesting watching, Gabynako likes to get on with things, as does she from their hurdle runs anyway.....No egg and spoon start. Wouldn't be surprised to see something like Julies Stowaway improve enough to go close either.

 

[charlie]

because horses aren't meant to win Supremes by 24 lengths

I'd love to take this to pieces with how shit the opposition were that day, but I can't. I split screened his run with other Supreme winners and he's clocked a good time without looking like he had to try too hard. Problem I have is 11/4 is too short but I find myself asking what isn't too short. I'd wade in at 5/1 I reckon but 11/4 is nearly half that and I just cant bring myself to do it. I think I'll do the BO to beat AI over 2m and for one to come down, the other to go up double. :tongue-new:

 

[Craigy14]

charlie I think I agree and disagree with some of your points, the main thing has to be the price people are really against.

Regarding the form I’d say it’s a little harsh to beat him in getting beat off Ferny Hollow and Envoi Allen. He’s mopped up a relatively poor 2m novice hurdle division with complete authority. Bob Ollinger was also beaten by Ferny Hollow and nobody has suggested anything other than he’s banker material wherever he goes (I tend to agree). Is Bob O’s form much better on paper? Not many liked Bravemansgame and Gaillard’s best form is arguably over further than the Ballymore trip. He beat Blue Lord similar distance to AI when Blue Lord was struggling to settle.

I’ve waffled on a bit here but I think it really does just boil down to price. On paper I wouldn’t look past those 2 at the top of their anticipated races, which is why I’m sure most have done the exact same double as last year (albeit a lot shorter :boxing than Shishkin and Envoi was.

 

[Craigy14]

Can’t remember who mentioned Mr Incredible for HDB, but he could be one of interest.

Mark Howard seems to think a step up in trip may suit over fences. Now looking at how little he’s raced he could fly under the radar, could be similar to Eklat De Rire this year. Lightly raced with a PtP and 2 hurdle runs which is the exact same as Eklat had at this stage of his career. The only difference being didn’t race over a trip over hurdles. Not priced for the BANC as far as I can see but one I’m watching for.

 

[Stormez]

Is that Magic Daze Arkle Stormez ?
There’s been talk in here today about the Mares Chase, have to say with the mares allowance if she takes to fences I think she’d be a player in the Arkle…

Yes mate the Arkle. I’ve been reading the talk on here about the Mares Chase but GOL looks their horse for that after her win the other day.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Yes mate the Arkle. I’ve been reading the talk on here about the Mares Chase but GOL looks their horse for that after her win the other day.

I watched back her mares nov hurdle run last night and being out in front she looked to have set the race up for everything to come and get her but as we know only TMSG did get to her, she also ran over the place after the last giving away ground so was clearly still green.
I think she could easily get 20f but a grade 2 at the arse end of Friday or the opening chase race of the festival in a G1 with a 7lb pull, surely that’s where they’ll land.
And as you say, Gin on Lime’s emergence as a mid distance horse can only help that.
I’m tempted to have more this morning…

 

[charlie]

charlie I think I agree and disagree with some of your points, the main thing has to be the price people are really against.

Regarding the form I’d say it’s a little harsh to beat him in getting beat off Ferny Hollow and Envoi Allen. He’s mopped up a relatively poor 2m novice hurdle division with complete authority. Bob Ollinger was also beaten by Ferny Hollow and nobody has suggested anything other than he’s banker material wherever he goes (I tend to agree). Is Bob O’s form much better on paper? Not many liked Bravemansgame and Gaillard’s best form is arguably over further than the Ballymore trip. He beat Blue Lord similar distance to AI when Blue Lord was struggling to settle.

I’ve waffled on a bit here but I think it really does just boil down to price. On paper I wouldn’t look past those 2 at the top of their anticipated races, which is why I’m sure most have done the exact same double as last year (albeit a lot shorter :boxing than Shishkin and Envoi was.

All we have at the moment is price, and his ante-post price is lousy.

Hurdle form is open to interpretation, but it's not harsh to say he's been beaten when he's run into a proper one, it's true, he has.

Yes, Bob's form is better. GDM is a proper horse as is BMG. I genuinely don't think AI beat anything of note in the Supreme.

Am I being very picky, yes, but at 11/4 I have to be picky.

This is the stage of the season where the favourite is short and nobody can see past them. One fluffed line or second or dissapointing performance and it all changes, and I'd rather be on the right side of 11/4 now in the eventuality that happens, than sat there in March with him going off 4/6 having not taken 11/4, if that makes sense. Now I'm the one waffling :highly_amused:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I'd rather be on the right side of 11/4 now in the eventuality that happens, than sat there in March with him going off 4/6 having not taken 11/4, if that makes sense. Now I'm the one waffling :highly_amused:

Are your stakes the same ante post as they are on the day charlie ?
As someone who has no problem getting stuck unto a 4/6 shot my personal stakes ante post are a fraction of what they would be on the day, e.g 170 quid on the day to win around 110 is the same as having 40 quid now at 11/4, which would obviously reflect his health, form, NRNB insurance etc.
Have to say I've been more inclined to have a serious hit on the day when all info is available and the risk reduced, maybe sneak him in one or two multis now which is what I think you indicated you have done...

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Decent round of jumping from Magic Daze for the most part, the sooner Rachel is back the better is my main take from that... must have ran a mile further than the winner been taken wide most of the way round. Going to do well to trouble the Arkle regardless though.