2022 Novice Chase Division

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was the one that suggested he could go to as many as eight races, but I'm on board with this, and it's what I believe too now they've said he goes chasing.

I think anyone backing any race is fair enough though, although personally I preferred the 33/1 when it was available for the NH Chase with cash out. I also think it right to cover for the BANC. The trouble is 365 haven't priced him for it yet, and I'd ideally want 25/1 with them. TWAR is really if you've missed the prices.

I'm comfortable he won't go handicapping. His hurdle baseline is too high for Gordon to manage it, and he would need to write off 5 month of the season for a plot. I'm sure the Moran's want to win a Grade 1 with all the money they're spending though, so it could be they roll the dice in the BANC rather than the NHC, and that's the only cover I feel I need.

I think the only possibility that remains is he ends up in the Pertemps. But we now know that's not the plan and he only ends up there if he can't jump a fence, so isn't a current consideration when punting, and just a quick change in position if it happened.

That's how I see it too. Larger odds with cash out > TWAR.

Anyone able to get him priced up with B365?

 

[Lobos]

That's how I see it too. Larger odds with cash out > TWAR.

Anyone able to get him priced up with B365?

Leave it for a few days so that I can get back from holiday first.....:angel:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Leave it for a few days so that I can get back from holiday first.....:angel:

Where you holidaying? Must be having a good time if you're on here:highly_amused:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Leave it for a few days so that I can get back from holiday first.....:angel:

If he does run on Wednesday that may fish out a load of RSA prices.

Maybe not going to be big ones, now he has been whacked in the market for the NHC.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Why worry about it when 14/1 twar is available?

Absolutely, and the TWAR is always your perfect insurance policy, I guess for those who like to compile a few jackpot multis prefer the only way for him to be included is by specifying a race, unless Hills have changed their position on this ???

 

[Lobos]

Where you holidaying? Must be having a good time if you're on here:highly_amused:

Lanzarote. Something to pass the time sunbathing by the pool. :very_drunk:​​​​​​

 

[Ballyfitz]

If he does run on Wednesday that may fish out a load of RSA prices.

Maybe not going to be big ones, now he has been whacked in the market for the NHC.

Looks like TBO has been priced up by Betfair / PP (20/1) and Sky (25/1) - obviously no cash out with Sky and BF/PP cash out is unreliable

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Where you holidaying? Must be having a good time if you're on here:highly_amused:

Im on holiday and have barely left this place and racing related sites :highly_amused: she gets a tan at the beach (and is quiet...) while I sit the other side in the shade all day with a carrier full of tinnies. Bliss! Then we have a nice meal, too much to drink and I tell her for the 6th night running all about the life were going to have when I Am Maximus steams in! At which point she rolls her eyes and counts up the years shes persevered with a now borderline overweight fantasist...

 

[Lbur4288]

Im on holiday and have barely left this place and racing related sites :highly_amused: she gets a tan at the beach (and is quiet...) while I sit the other side in the shade all day with a carrier full of tinnies. Bliss! Then we have a nice meal, too much to drink and I tell her for the 6th night running all about the life were going to have when I Am Maximus steams in! At which point she rolls her eyes and counts up the years shes persevered with a now borderline overweight fantasist...

I'm glad I'm not the only one promising their wife the world after Cheltenham :biggrin-new:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Lanzarote. Something to pass the time sunbathing by the pool. :very_drunk:​​​​​​

Very nice mate, a lovely Island. Went there with my wife before we got married. We had a night out and got chatting to this young Irish couple - he wouldn't let me buy a drink all night. Don't remember a thing after about drink 6 or 7 and had to be carried into a taxi. I still claim he spiked me:hopelessness::congratulatory:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Im on holiday and have barely left this place and racing related sites :highly_amused: she gets a tan at the beach (and is quiet...) while I sit the other side in the shade all day with a carrier full of tinnies. Bliss! Then we have a nice meal, too much to drink and I tell her for the 6th night running all about the life were going to have when I Am Maximus steams in! At which point she rolls her eyes and counts up the years shes persevered with a now borderline overweight fantasist...

Haha - brilliant:very_drunk::congratulatory:

 

[Kautostar]

I'd prefer bigger prices than 14s tbh. They aren't giving much away at that price.

I think the price is fair considering he’s top priced at 16/1 now for the nh chase and only 20-25/1 for the banc. I’d expect this to be cut any day now

 

[Craigy14]

I was just about to pull the trigger with pp when he was 20/1 but got caught up with something to do with work so the 14’s 16’s left doesn’t excite me too much. Should have went in early doors but couldn’t see past the Run Wild Fred plan in all honesty.

I’m a bit undecided with him too, I thought another crack at the Pertemps would be the plan, but as Spectre says lowering that mark wouldn’t/won’t be easy.

Now it looks like he’s going chasing I’d also want 25/1+ for the BANC but given he’s been hammered in the NHC in the last few days I don’t think we’ll have much luck!

Gordon's staying chasers look like being RWF, The Bosses Oscar, Gars De Sceaux, does the latter become a Kim Muir candidate? Only rated 141 over hurdles so could easily work that into a low chase mark. We all know JP loves a festival handicap winner.

Might have to play a trixie when the KM is priced :glee:

Edit - I know he has 2/3 other potential stayers as well.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think the price is fair considering he’s top priced at 16/1 now for the nh chase and only 20-25/1 for the banc. I’d expect this to be cut any day now

He was widely available at much bigger prices a few weeks ago.

I suppose it's all relative, in that it's not such a bad price if you missed the bigger ones that were available. It doesn't scream value to me though.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Im on holiday and have barely left this place and racing related sites :highly_amused: she gets a tan at the beach (and is quiet...) while I sit the other side in the shade all day with a carrier full of tinnies. Bliss! Then we have a nice meal, too much to drink and I tell her for the 6th night running all about the life were going to have when I Am Maximus steams in! At which point she rolls her eyes and counts up the years shes persevered with a now borderline overweight fantasist...

Have you got an antepost diary on the go AV? I'd love to have a read to see how I am Maximus is going to change the life of Mrs Viking :greedy_dollars:

 

[Eggs]

….when it runs, I’m sure somebody will get TBO priced up in the ‘win today/NHC’ market to give those who have missed the fancy prices an opportunity to boost what’s currently on offer. I’d be interested in ‘win today & a/r’ price.

Have to think the current 15-1 a/r price with Hills boost is reasonable (10-1 Sky) given TBO is now a best priced 16-1 for NHC.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

….when it runs, I’m sure somebody will get TBO priced up in the ‘win today/NHC’ market to give those who have missed the fancy prices an opportunity to boost what’s currently on offer. I’d be interested in ‘win today & a/r’ price.

Have to think the current 15-1 a/r price with Hills boost is reasonable (10-1 Sky) given TBO is now a best priced 16-1 for NHC.

The Giant Bolster (sorry I don't know how to do that @ thingy) highlighted another interesting RAB: Galopin des Champs to win the RSA and The Bosses Oscar to win (any race) - 100/1.

 

[Eggs]

The Giant Bolster (sorry I don't know how to do that @ thingy) highlighted another interesting RAB: Galopin des Champs to win the RSA and The Bosses Oscar to win (any race) - 100/1.

….noticed that this morning myself but if TBO doesn’t end up in the NHC, he could well run in the RSA. My thinking is the 16-1 and 8-1 on offer for the NHC/RSA double offers better value (>150-1).

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

….noticed that this morning myself but if TBO doesn’t end up in the NHC, he could well run in the RSA. My thinking is the 16-1 and 8-1 on offer for the NHC/RSA double offers better value (>150-1).

Fair point - you do get cover for the Pertemps Hurdle though! :encouragement:

 

[Spectre]

Could someone perhaps request 365 price up TBO for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase?

I have history of putting my head above the parapet with them and having it shot off!