2022 Novice Chase Division

[Kautostar]

Good point re Escaria Ten, but doesn't retract from the fact he didn't win the race still.

It's not going to put off everyone, and it shouldn't, it's all about opinions, plus I'll be backing the any race price so I'll be sitting on a live bet provided he turns up to the festival regardless of where he runs, but for me the NH Chase is not where I see him running currently.

Worth noting he is only entered for next week, no final declaration yet.

I agree that backing him twar is the way to go especially now that his priced has crashed for the nh chase. There’s only a few pts difference in price now.

 

[Winging The Last]

Agree COD. Wouldn't be a shock at all if he turned out Gordon's best Novice Chaser and went Marsh/RSA. He ran some top good races off of big weights last season and deserves to be a talked of in the same light as the other Novice Chase protagonists.

Looking back over his previous form, he's hardly beaten anything top class tbh (highest rated horses he's ever beaten is Uknowwhatimeanharry and he was 13 at the time), and would stand no chance in my opinion of ever winning a Grade 1, let alone at Cheltenham against the much better opposition he will come up against (Bob Olinger, GDS, etc).

The NHC is the only novice he stands any chance in at Cheltenham and then maybe handicaps, although the one handicap he would have most chance of winning he will be too high in the weights for come march based on his hurdles mark, so would really have to have a helping hand off the handicapper and have some heavy defeats

 

[Lobos]

Looking back over his previous form, he's hardly beaten anything top class tbh (highest rated horses he's ever beaten is Uknowwhatimeanharry and he was 13 at the time), and would stand no chance in my opinion of ever winning a Grade 1, let alone at Cheltenham against the much better opposition he will come up against (Bob Olinger, GDS, etc).

The NHC is the only novice he stands any chance in at Cheltenham and then maybe handicaps, although the one handicap he would have most chance of winning he will be too high in the weights for come march based on his hurdles mark, so would really have to have a helping hand off the handicapper and have some heavy defeats

Cant have that at all. He's a 150 rated hurdler (Galliard Du Mensil rated the same and My Drogo and Galopin Des Champ rated 155 as a comparison) and was 2nd off 11stone 5lbs in probably the most competitive Handicap in the calender. He's also only 6 so he's open to any amount of improvement. Don't forget he was very likely 'held back' in most of his races prior to the festival in order to protect his mark for the Pertempts. He could well be the surprise package this year.

 

[Quevega]

Agree COD. Wouldn't be a shock at all if he turned out Gordon's best Novice Chaser and went Marsh/RSA. He ran some top good races off of big weights last season and deserves to be a talked of in the same light as the other Novice Chase protagonists.

I'm on this thought process also (like COD and yourself have said).
But it's early days and would not surprise me if he did run in the four miler, I'll accept a lower price at some point when I think it's more likely, and think he has a chance on chase form.

 

[Lobos]

I'm certainly not discounting the 4 miler either but I'm not discounting the 7 other races he could potentially end up in either ! :encouragement:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I'm yet to get involved with The Bosses Oscar for the National Hunt Chase, as I have my doubts about him fitting the right profile for Gordon Elliott. I know Saxon Warrior has done extensive work in the Gordon Elliott thread, which is fantastic, and even he notes that he needs to start sooner rather than later, but even if he did start next week he'd need to go some way to match the levels of his previous winners of the race.
.

Yep, have to say this is my take, Run Wild Fred has to be his #1 shot at this race unless Elliott thinks he can compete with the best over 3m, for me that seems unlikely.
As for TBO it would be odd for a potential top horse to have had 2 seasons hurdling, if trainers this they have a top chaser on their hands they’re usually quick to show them a fence.
I’ll leave this one unless there are any clear comments from connections suggesting TBO is the stable horse for the race…

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agree COD. Wouldn't be a shock at all if he turned out Gordon's best Novice Chaser and went Marsh/RSA. He ran some top good races off of big weights last season and deserves to be a talked of in the same light as the other Novice Chase protagonists.

Delta Work made the transition to fences having won the Pertemps and although TBO is going into novice chasing a year later in his career, I could see him being one of GE's best this season. He's achieved as much as DW had over hurdles anyway, on ratings anyway.

I'm actually tempted to back him for the Brown Advisory if he's priced up.

He has the residual class with his hurdles rating and is a bit of a boat. Both are needed to feature in the BANC imo.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Escaria ten only had three runs prior to Cheltenham and ran in the nh chase last season. He ran a good race and would probably have been good enough to win most renewals. At some point Gordon will win with something that isn’t a second season chaser and September is early enough to gain experience for the task. I wouldn’t let it put me off backing tbo

Quite right,

Having had his race-stopping mistake at the 2nd last Hurdle at Fairyhouse at Easter, I am pleased just to see him back with an entry, and assume he is safe and sound, after that horror jump.

That said, September is therefore very early for him to be entered up for a staying Beginners Chase, and four races before Christmas and then a near 3 month break is plenty for a NHC bid.

Champagne Classic wasnt flogged through the summer races when he was antepost 2/1 fav for the NHC for Gordon two years ago, before an unfortunate late injury (from which we havent seen him again).

He had three runs from Oct-Dec including a narrow 2nd in the Christmas Grade 1 3M Novice Chase, but he was still Gordon's number one NHC horse.
He was a second season chaser, but only ran twice the first season (Jan-Feb)

Because of that injury Gordon raced Ravenhill instead, a much inferior horse, went off 12/1 in a poor version of the race (Carefully Selected odds on fav) and won it, which gave the Gordon Elliott summer jumps theory a bit more credit than it would had if Champagne Classic hadnt been injured.

TBO being out early in chases, to me indicates the NHC may be the plan, and the only other race that interests me for him (as mentioned in detail in the Gordon Elliott Diary) is the Pertemps.

The problem with the Pertemps is if he dropped out of Novice Chasing, and went for the February Punchestown Pertemps Qualifier to switch back to that race, then he is still going to end up with topweight (BHS Performance Rating of 154 indicates a weight rise for his 2nd in the Final in March).

So the Beginners Chase entry suggests the NHC as my number one thought for him.

With TBO Gordon has ran him twice at the Festival as a 5yo and 6yo, and he has performed really well with a close 5th in the Martin Pipe and a topweight 2nd in the Pertemps Final.
I think Gordon would want him back at the Festival again.

He loves bringing back horses that perform well for him there, on their first visits, and plot a route from the start of the season for them (Galvin a case in point, Sire Du Berlais, The Storyteller, Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes, Farclas etc, etc)

They messed up his Hurdles handicap mark at Christmas when Brian Copper went doolally trying to win the Pertemps Qualifier (not just qualify for it :hopelessness and his Irish Rating of 138 pre-race ended up 151 UK rating the next time he ran.
I tend to think thats put to bed the Pertemps being his main plan, or any chance of going to the Kim Muir as a Novice Chaser.

 

[Lobos]

Can you not see him as an RSA or potentially a Marsh candidate Saxon?? He's rated the same as Galliard Du Mensil and just 5lbs behind both My Drogo and Galopin Des Champ. All 3 of those are talked about on here as top candidates for the Fez novice chases. Why is TBO any different??

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Can you not see him as an RSA or potentially a Marsh candidate Saxon?? He's rated the same as Galliard Du Mensil and just 5lbs behind both My Drogo and Galopin Des Champ. All 3 of those are talked about on here as top candidates for the Fez novice chases. Why is TBO any different??

He's too slow for the Marsh. He's more Don Poli than Sir Des Champs!!

 

[Lobos]

He's too slow for the Marsh. He's more Don Poli than Sir Des Champs!!

So a thumbs up from you for the RSA potentially then FM ? He's also way ahead of the likes of Gars Des Sceaux and Grand Paradis, both talked up as potentially Gordon's best Novice Chaser. It doesn't add up whichever way you try

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Can you not see him as an RSA or potentially a Marsh candidate Saxon?? He's rated the same as Galliard Du Mensil and just 5lbs behind both My Drogo and Galopin Des Champ. All 3 of those are talked about on here as top candidates for the Fez novice chases. Why is TBO any different??

On ratings yes.

But I dont think its co-incidence that in two years hurdling that Gordon hasnt gone into Graded Hurdles with him.

It does seem, to date, that he has him marked as a very good horse, but maybe not a Festival Grade 1 horse.

That could change over fences, but at the moment he isnt one I would back for a Grade 1 Festival Novice Chase, at least until I have seen him over a fence.

I would prefer at the moment to view him similarly to Galvin, who won at the third time of asking at the Festival, having ran 2nd in a handicap the year before (and pretty well in the Ballymore at his 1st Fez) , and for the focus to be on a Grade 2 Novice Chase (NHC) this year, not a Grade 1.

As with all horse racing knowledge, I prepare to react and reassess after each run, or new piece of information we hear of.

 

[Kautostar]

Can you not see him as an RSA or potentially a Marsh candidate Saxon?? He's rated the same as Galliard Du Mensil and just 5lbs behind both My Drogo and Galopin Des Champ. All 3 of those are talked about on here as top candidates for the Fez novice chases. Why is TBO any different??

Why worry about it when 14/1 twar is available?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I tend to think thats put to bed the Pertemps being his main plan, or any chance of going to the Kim Muir as a Novice Chaser.

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Ultima? PP Plate?

Kim Muir almost definitely discounted, given his rating anyway.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

So a thumbs up from you for the RSA potentially then FM ? He's also way ahead of the likes of Gars Des Sceaux and Grand Paradis, both talked up as potentially Gordon's best Novice Chaser. It doesn't add up whichever way you try

Yes. I posted about it here #667

He could be Gordy's best staying novice chaser imo. I didn't particularly like him over hurdles as always thought he was a boat. A fence could just be the making of him though.

If I could get 33/1 I'd be on it like a shot, especially with cash out

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Why worry about it when 14/1 twar is available?

Probably less a worry, more about the discussion of it, which is what a forum is about

 

[Spectre]

I was the one that suggested he could go to as many as eight races, but I'm on board with him for the NH Chase, and it's what I believe too now they've said he goes chasing.

I think anyone backing any race is fair enough though, although personally I preferred the 33/1 when it was available for the NH Chase with cash out. I also think it right to cover for the BANC. The trouble is 365 haven't priced him for it yet, and I'd ideally want 25/1 with them. TWAR is really if you've missed the prices.

I'm comfortable he won't go handicapping. His hurdle baseline is too high for Gordon to manage it, and he would need to write off 5 month of the season for a plot. I'm sure the Moran's want to win a Grade 1 with all the money they're spending though, so it could be they roll the dice in the BANC rather than the NHC, and that's the only cover I feel I need.

I think the only possibility that remains is he ends up in the Pertemps. But we now know that's not the plan and he only ends up there if he can't jump a fence, so isn't a current consideration when punting, and just a quick change in position if it happened.

 

[Lobos]

Why worry about it when 14/1 twar is available?

Totally agree, and I've backed him that way but am trying to make a case for TWAR for those that have not gone that way. I think I would win easily in a Court.:welcoming:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Why worry about it when 14/1 twar is available?

I'd prefer bigger prices than 14s tbh. They aren't giving much away at that price.

 

[Quevega]

Yes. I posted about it here #667

He could be Gordy's best staying novice chaser imo. I didn't particularly like him over hurdles as always thought he was a boat. A fence could just be the making of him though.

If I could get 33/1 I'd be on it like a shot, especially with cash out

I'd back him for the RSA also. 25-1 no shorter.