2022 Novice Chase Division

[The Fellow]

Zanahiyr is the fly in the ointment with Quilixios I think. He looks unlikley to want a fence anytime soon, so they either take each other on agan over hurdles, one moves up in trip, or one goes over fences. I think they'll probably see how it plays out over two miles in open company hurdles before deciding, with Quilixios the more likely to want a step up in trip of the two. The problem then of course is there's only handicaps if they step up to two and half.

I suppose it's feasible that one of them could have a workable mark still, and Gordon may play around all season and then unleash at a big pot.

Quilixios on 150 and trained by HDB , Cheveley Park all this to me suggests less of a messing about season to win a hcap, whereas Zanahiyr rated 146 and trained by Elliott , owned by the Morans feel much more likely to target a handicap , get a few pounds off with some nice 4th or 5th efforts over 2 or 3 furlongs too far

then boom :welcoming:

 

[Kautostar]

Quilixios has always been talked about as a future chaser so I would guess that would still be the plan. Arkle or marsh??

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Zanahiyr rated 146 and trained by Elliott , owned by the Morans feel much more likely to target a handicap , get a few pounds off with some nice 4th or 5th efforts over 2 or 3 furlongs too far

then boom :welcoming:

Think he will be looking for a step up, have we found our M Pipe horse ?
If he gets taxed too much the Coral Cup is there…

 

[Spectre]

Very possibly. You'd think he would get lost in graded hurdles this season, so a handicap campaign with somethign like that in mind must be something they'll be considering.

 

[Spectre]

Going back to the Arkle market being very open behind Appreciate It, I've been searchihg for value. I came to the conclusion that Bob Ollinger would potentially go here instead of the Marsh if Apprecaite either stays over hurdles or has a setback. 10/1 with cashout is much too big, so I've just topped up a further 5 points on top of the 10 I already have on Bob O.

I already have Dusart and Boothill at big prices, but respect that most will be looking at the Irish horses. Both Dan and Harry Skelton have both seperately said that My Drogo will be campaigned up in trip so he's very unlikely to be aimed at the Arkle. Soaring Glory is the only other potential UK Arkle horse with place prospects at this stage.

Ferny Hollow is the one of real interest from Ireland if he's switched to fences, which may of course depend on plans for Appreciate It. I suspect their campaigns plans hinge on each other. I've mentioned Jason The Militant possibly coming this way, but he isn't quoted yet, and Blue Lord is likely to be the Willie second string if he has one. If Appreciate It is Arkle bound I assume Ballyadam will be upped in trip, and is more likley to head to the Marsh. On breeding I'm surprised he was campaigned at 2 miles last season, and he might be a big improver for a fence and a trip.

I'm ignoring the juveniles from last season because of their very poor record, so other than for a book Monmiral and Quilixios aren't a serious consideration.

My feeling is that these are the ones to focus on before we start to see the season unfold:

Winner - Appreciate It (or Ferny Hollow if Appreciate It is kept to hurdles) or Bob Ollinger
Possible Places - Dusart, Blue Lord, Boothill, Jason The Militant

 

[Spectre]

I should probalby add in Gin On Lime before someone shoots me! :highly_amused:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Going back to the Arkle market being very open behind Appreciate It, I've been searchihg for value. I came to the conclusion that Bob Ollinger would potentially go here instead of the Marsh

I think we’re likely to disagree on this right up to March my friend.
I’m not saying Bob O couldn’t win an Arkle, right now he’s one of the most exciting recruits of recent years, but he slammed his Ballymore field putting further distance between himself and his rivals all the way up the hill, I’d go so far as to say he relished the stamina test against what many believed were the best staying novice hurdlers, and for that reason I have him more a 3m G1 horse as a stepping stone to the 2023 Gold Cup.

If he’s not going Marsh or 3m and they think his trip is 2m then why go chasing, go win a Champion Hurdle.

I’d be fairly sure he won’t be seen over less than 20f come Spring…


ps Blue Lord would have a serious chance for me, campaigned over further before dropping back to the Supreme and whilst he wouldn’t have got to Appreciate It he wouldn’t have been beaten far.
Proper 2m campaign and he can be an Arkle runner, but as you say the race looks to revolve around AI and with that in mind Blue Lord may well be kept over hurdles, he’d be a very short price for the County if they decide to protect his current mark…

 

[taylorch1990]

I think we all expect Bob Olinger to end up in the Marsh or at least all see it as the likely target right now. However if I were to to pick his second choice for me it would definitely be the Arkle over the RSA. BO always races a touch keen and imo he didn't outstay his rivals in the ballymore he was just better than then and had more natural pace. I've also chanced his at 10-1 for the Arkle with cashout. I'd expect him to be campaigned between 2 and 2 and a half all season and then a decision made on his target when we have a feel for the likely rivals in each race.

For what it's worth I'm also against Appreciate It for the Arkle but can't explain why. I think he won a terrible Supreme this year and at 8 come the festival hes getting on a bit for a novice Chaser and behind him the Arkle looks wide open, whereas at the minute the RSA looks to have a lot more strength in depth.

 

[Lobos]

I'm with Ista re Bollinger. Marsh or RSA for me. Rachel said 'he wasn't stopping at the line' which is significant for me. He looks a Stayer and remember his only defeat was over 2 miles albeit against another top horse. Also worth noting all his races bar the Ballymore have been on very testing ground which also cements my feelings that he he's a proper stayer. The 20/1 with cash out available for the RSA is just a crazy price and a tad disrespectful imo. I hope they regret it !

 

[Lobos]

I should probalby add in Gin On Lime before someone shoots me! :highly_amused:

You forgot Saxons horse James De Berlais as well. Just the 8 then :welcoming:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

The Arkle is going to be terrible if the good ones go to the Marsh and RSA.

It won't be, some will move to the race, and not step up in trip after winning a 2M-ish Beginners Chase.

 

[Spectre]

Given the lack of two and a half mile novice chases in Ireland we'll get to find out fairly quickly. De Bromhead will be pretty much forced to start out either over 2 miles or 3 miles unless he comes over here. And if so it would be a clear statement that the Marsh is the race they are campaigning for. Don't forget De Bromhead isn't averse to sending his novice chasers over for Chetenham's Open Meeting in November.

Given past decisions he's made, and the fact that a drop to two miles over hurdles was considered last season, I'm comfortable with using the Arkle as my backup rather than the RSA. With the benefit of cashout of course. If he gets an entry over three miles I'll switch tactics immediately though. I actually think taking either view is fine for now though. The key with Bob O is being right on top of any entries and being ready to react quicker than the bookies.

 

[Spectre]

Does anyone have any thoughts on other horses that may end up going to the Arkle having place prospects next March. Or any thoughts on the horses I shortlisted?

The Arkle is usually the best race to make a book on, and it pays to dive in and get a small number of horses in early. For anyone thinking of making a book for the first time this year, I'd suggest picking one race, and my advice would be to make it this race.

 

[Lbur4288]

Does anyone have any thoughts on other horses that may end up going to the Arkle having place prospects next March. Or any thoughts on the horses I shortlisted?

The Arkle is usually the best race to make a book on, and it pays to dive in and get a small number of horses in early. For anyone thinking of making a book for the first time this year, I'd suggest picking one race, and my advice would be to make it this race.

When Hills put Ferny Hollow at 20/1 for the Arkle I jumped in on that. I know there are questions to answer (wellbeing, hurdling or chasing etc) but I think its still a decent price at around 12/1. Especially if Appreciate It isn't 100% I can see Ferny Hollow being WPMs Arkle dart. If fully fit, I think Ferny is potentially the best racehorse of the lot.

 

[Spectre]

I agree. Having Ferny Hollow with cashout just makes sense. You'd have to think if Appreciate It isn't Willie's Arkle horse then Ferny Hollow is. It's unlikley both go chasing though so one is contingent on the other.

 

[OverTheLast]

Given the lack of two and a half mile novice chases in Ireland we'll get to find out fairly quickly. De Bromhead will be pretty much forced to start out either over 2 miles or 3 miles unless he comes over here. And if so it would be a clear statement that the Marsh is the race they are campaigning for. Don't forget De Bromhead isn't averse to sending his novice chasers over for Chetenham's Open Meeting in November.

Given past decisions he's made, and the fact that a drop to two miles over hurdles was considered last season, I'm comfortable with using the Arkle as my backup rather than the RSA. With the benefit of cashout of course. If he gets an entry over three miles I'll switch tactics immediately though. I actually think taking either view is fine for now though. The key with Bob O is being right on top of any entries and being ready to react quicker than the bookies.

There is the nice 2m4f beginners at Down Royal that I'm (probably selfishly) hoping Henry opts to start Bob in!!

 

[Lobos]

There is the nice 2m4f beginners at Down Royal that I'm (probably selfishly) hoping Henry opts to start Bob in!!

Would that mean he's more likely to go RSA as opposed to Arkle ?

 

[charlie]

I think we all expect Bob Olinger to end up in the Marsh or at least all see it as the likely target right now. However if I were to to pick his second choice for me it would definitely be the Arkle over the RSA. BO always races a touch keen and imo he didn't outstay his rivals in the ballymore he was just better than then and had more natural pace. I've also chanced his at 10-1 for the Arkle with cashout. I'd expect him to be campaigned between 2 and 2 and a half all season and then a decision made on his target when we have a feel for the likely rivals in each race.

For what it's worth I'm also against Appreciate It for the Arkle but can't explain why. I think he won a terrible Supreme this year and at 8 come the festival hes getting on a bit for a novice Chaser and behind him the Arkle looks wide open, whereas at the minute the RSA looks to have a lot more strength in depth.

I was just looking at Bob Olinger's breeding - by Sholokhov, clicked 'stud record' and the first two names are Don Cossack and Shishkin :applouse:

Bob Olinger is so talented I don't think there's a right or wrong answer yet, but I think you make a good point about him racing a touch keen, and I suspect how he takes to fences (mentally) will dictate how they campaign him. Some horses relax and settle much better than others over larger obstacles - if BO is one of those horses then with his massive engine I'd be almost certain they'd go 2m4f or 3m.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I've said through the summer, I think Henry can go anywhere he chooses with Bob O.

He shouldn't be scared of the opposition in any race, and over 12 fences rather than 8 hurdles (at 2 miles) if he can jump fences fluently then 2M shouldn't be dismissed, and is there as a choice for him alongside 2M4F and 3M for the Novice Chase season.

Having just looked through Henry De Bromhead's 10 year race planning at the Festival, last night, the Arkle is one of the very few races he targets to have a runner in each season.

Until Envoi Allen was sent to him with only one Festival entry, in the Marsh, I think he had 1 runner in that race in a decade.

 

[OverTheLast]

Would that mean he's more likely to go RSA as opposed to Arkle ?

Not sure what you mean. It would mean marsh imo.