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2022 Novice Chase Division

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Kautostar said:
Dickie diver could be an interesting second season chaser. Couldn’t squeeze enough runs in to qualify for this last season after a few niggling injuries.
Five o’clock would be another on my radar and I would imagine it will be between him and Stattler to be the Mullins horse here.
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Yeah, I do like Dickie Diver, and think he is one to bare in mind.

Also, a couple that are not priced up but could be of interest, Sempo, of Joseph O'Brien, who is a second season novice, but plenty of experience now and ran well enough in the Albert Bartlett of 2020 behind Monkfish, although he'd have some ground to make up on Run Wild Fred based on Irish Grand National running. Also Braid Blue who would be a second season novice having had two less than inspiring starts over fences last August, although hasn't been seen since, so his well being needs to be confirmed, but his form over hurdles was continuously improving prior to going over the larger obstacles, including a class 2 Ballymore Hurdle 2nd at the October Cheltenham meeting.
 
Just a thought to add to your analysis NC. How many second season chasers ran in the NH Chase in the seasons when a first season novice won? For example Midnight Prayer is only a trends buster if he was running against experienced novices. If he wasn't, one had to win.

I suspect when you isolate the second season novices that have ran ion the last 10-15 years they have a remarkably good record. Probably even more so if you cut them off at say 16/1 or 20/1.
 
Spectre said:
I suspect when you isolate the second season novices that have ran ion the last 10-15 years they have a remarkably good record. Probably even more so if you cut them off at say 16/1 or 20/1.
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Are you suggesting you would cut off 16/1 and above shots from a betting perspective ?
 
Spectre said:
Just a thought to add to your analysis NC. How many second season chasers ran in the NH Chase in the seasons when a first season novice won? For example Midnight Prayer is only a trends buster if he was running against experienced novices. If he wasn't, one had to win.

I suspect when you isolate the second season novices that have ran ion the last 10-15 years they have a remarkably good record. Probably even more so if you cut them off at say 16/1 or 20/1.
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Only 4 second season chasers ran against Midnight Prayer in a field of 15. None of them were fancied.

They were:

4th 100-1 shot Adrenalin Flight who was beaten 2 1/4 lengths.
5th Tony Martin's 33-1 shot Living Next Door who was beaten 2 1/2 lengths
Fell 33-1 outsider Merlin's Wish who was losing his place when he came down at the 12th
PU 25-1 shot Firm Order.

It was a very decent field too.

Foxrock was unplaced 3-1 favourite, Shotgun Paddy was a neck second, Willie's Suntiep was a close 3rd, Jonjo's Shutthefrontdoor was 6th and Rogue Angel 7th.
 
Another that could be interesting as a second season novice is On The Ropes. Beaten by monkfish but was plugging on all the way to finish second that day.

One I am certainly keeping an eye on for Mullins.
 
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Istabraq said:
Are you suggesting you would cut off 16/1 and above shots from a betting perspective ?
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No, badly worded. I think there is a point where you do though. It's more about the no-hoper perspective as there have been plenty over the years. Essentially those second and even third year chasers that still qualify and are just making up the numbers. We know which ones they are and discount them immediately.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Point well made Ista.

You got to the heart of the matter while I failed in a clumsy attempt to say the same thing.

The second-season chaser idea isn't strictly relevant - it's how much chasing experience they have under their belt.

And the importance of chasing experience for a potential NHC winner is really what I was trying to determine.

I agree that the NHC is a race many horses aren't specifically aimed at long-term - they end up there because either they're not considered good enough for the RSA or failed to lose their novice tag for whatever reason.

But Gordon showed with Galvin that he is prepared to target the race 8 or 9 months in advance - if he's got the right horse - and he certainly seems to have another who fits the bill in Run Wild Free.
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The second season chaser plot could work if it was a Gordon Elliott horse, who had ran well, but not won, at the previous Festival.

Galvin and Cause of Causes

Run Wild Fred ducked the Kim Muir this year to take on the much harder race, and the massive Irish National pot instead, which he narrowly lost.

I would class him in their with Galvin and Cause of Causes as one that Gordon wont miss the NHC opportunity, if the horse is fit and well, as he will be going for the Grand National this year, not the Irish one (IMO).

I think the second season chaser theme with the NHC is purely a Gordon Elliott one.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
The second season chaser plot could work if it was a Gordon Elliott horse, who had ran well, but not won, at the previous Festival.

Galvin and Cause of Causes

Run Wild Fred ducked the Kim Muir this year to take on the much harder race, and the massive Irish National pot instead, which he narrowly lost.

I would class him in their with Galvin and Cause of Causes as one that Gordon wont miss the NHC opportunity, if the horse is fit and well, as he will be going for the Grand National this year, not the Irish one (IMO).

I think the second season chaser theme with the NHC is purely a Gordon Elliott one.
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Agree re Gordon's. Im waiting for one of his to pop up in the summer races that others have appeared in before committing to the race. I get the feeling Run Wild Fred is one of those serial losers so not sure on him. Mullins runners in the 4 miler on the other hand have mostly been relatively inexperienced first season Novices.
 
Craigy14 said:
Another that could be interesting as a second season novice is On The Ropes. Beaten by monkfish but was plugging on all the way to finish second that day.

One I am certainly keeping an eye on for Mullins.
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Agreed Craigy. I'd love to nab some big prices for him in the any race market. Not sure he's priced up anywhere though.

He could be a Ultima/Kim Muir/Plate/NH Chase/Irish National horse
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Need the any race option.
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Which still won't help is he's held over to Fairyhouse.
I know it's the same dilemma every year but these versatile horses are a nightmare to call right, having half a dozen options just makes them an impossible punting proposition for me, and although a nice 'any race' voucher is useful it doesn't allow you to build a few multis for the jackpot...
 
Istabraq said:
Which still won't help is he's held over to Fairyhouse.
I know it's the same dilemma every year but these versatile horses are a nightmare to call right, having half a dozen options just makes them an impossible punting proposition for me, and although a nice 'any race' voucher is useful it doesn't allow you to build a few multis for the jackpot...
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Paddy Power allowed a twar in multis for a time last year but they haven't got a twar market up at the moment.
 
Ice said:
Paddy Power allowed a twar in multis for a time last year but they haven't got a twar market up at the moment.
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….Hills also allowed a/r multiples across their alphabetical categories for a spell, but not as yet.
 
Eggs said:
….Hills also allowed a/r multiples across their alphabetical categories for a spell, but not as yet.
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Can't see them doing that again. Think they made an error accepting those bets last season and took a real hit.
 
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Lobos said:
Can't see them doing that again. Think they made an error accepting those bets last season and took a real hit.
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Spot on, i got a few early lucky 15's on with hills last year but later in the season they stopped it.
 
Question.
I've had a brief look, and it's something that I've always had in my head.
But, as someone who rubbishes horses chances in the arkle if they were bred to run on the flat (aspire tower) and actually ran on the flat,
And was dead against Captain Guinness as his sire was Arakan (a sprinter on the flat)

Can anyone name an arkle winner who had ran on the flat, prior to going NH racing ??
Or whose sire was a sprinter on the flat ???
 
Quevega said:
Can anyone name an arkle winner who had ran on the flat, prior to going NH racing ??
Or whose sire was a sprinter on the flat ???
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There were quite a few from the 90s and until probably the age claim went, 2005 ish
 
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