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2022 Novice Chase Division

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Outlaw said:
Worth bearing in mind that HDB was happy to let Bob face off with Ferny first up last season. He doesn’t strike me as a trainer to avoid horses and who to say AI is better than Bob o ? It could end up AI might go up in trip to avoid Bob...
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Henry never appears to shirk a challenge.

He has always targeted the Arkle, the RSA, the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, with success.

There is no way he would take Bob O out of a Championship race he wanted to run him in, just because there was another good horse in there.

There are supposed to be good horses competing with good horses in the biggest races.............Thats what top class racing is about.

We really don't want to start thinking that good horses should avoid each other.

If/when I back Bob Olinger for the Arkle it would be with the full acceptance that he may have to beat Appreciate It and My Drogo, among others, to win it.

It would be the same if/when I back Appreciate It for the Arkle, or My Drogo.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Henry never appears to shirk a challenge.

He has always targeted the Arkle, the RSA, the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, with success.

There is no way he would take Bob O out of a Championship race he wanted to run him in, just because there was another good horse in there.

There are supposed to be good horses competing with good horses in the biggest races.............Thats what top class racing is about.

We really don't want to start thinking that good horses should avoid each other.

If/when I back Bob Olinger for the Arkle it would be with the full acceptance that he may have to beat Appreciate It and My Drogo, among others, to win it.

It would be the same if/when I back Appreciate It for the Arkle, or My Drogo.
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My proposal was in reference to many trying to isolate horses like Envoi/Shihkin could be last season. Nobody wants horses to clash more than i do Saxon, hopefully they meet in Ireland next season if not next month(looks unlikely) with future battles to come.
 
My thoughts are that BO will go RSA. He's beaten everything worth mentioning already that's currently listed in the betting for the 3 miler. He certainly wasn't stopping in the Ballymore so the distance is not an issue imo. Whilst I don't think they'll avoid AI, he did look a proper weapon in the Supreme and I just think the cosier race for Bollinger may turn out to be the RSA. With My Drogo going Marsh that's another Unknown for BO. 20/1 for BO with PP though is a very strange one. What's that all about???!!!
 
Lobos said:
My thoughts are that BO will go RSA. He's beaten everything worth mentioning already that's currently listed in the betting for the 3 miler. He certainly wasn't stopping in the Ballymore so the distance is not an issue imo. Whilst I don't think they'll avoid AI, he did look a proper weapon in the Supreme and I just think the cosier race for Bollinger may turn out to be the RSA. With My Drogo going Marsh that's another Unknown for BO. 20/1 for BO with PP though is a very strange one. What's that all about???!!!
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I think its more likely given his trainers past race planning, to train him for either the Arkle or RSA - rather than the Marsh.

The bookmakers are suggesting the Marsh at the present time.

Nothings certain or been spoken on the subject by Henry.

I love the way he races his top horses, long may he stay at the top of the game.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
I think its more likely given his trainers past race planning, to train him for either the Arkle or RSA - rather than the Marsh.

The bookmakers are suggesting the Marsh at the present time.

Nothings certain or been spoken on the subject by Henry.

I love the way he races his top horses, long may he stay at the top of the game.
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Yep, HDB has really stepped up a gear and the horses he has for next season are breathtaking. His jockey ain't bad either !
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Henry never appears to shirk a challenge.

He has always targeted the Arkle, the RSA, the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, with success.

.
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All good stuff SW. A couple of points, I might be wrong but I don’t believe that Debromhead as ever has ever won or had a second in the Ballymore before so this is somewhat new territory. Also while he may have always targeted the Arkle and RSA in the past things change. The Marsh has only been going 10 years, the prize money is the same as the Arkle and if it’s good enough for Envoi Allen I think it will be plenty good enough for many other up and comers over the coming years.

Based on this discussion I do now think it’s possible (although unlikely) that BO could meet AI early in the season over 2 miles and should BO win they could flip the targets I see at the moment. That said I’ll be still be very surprised if they meet at Cheltenham, but we’ll see.
 
I’ve had way too much time on my hands so I thought I would delve into the Henry DeBromhead and his runners over the past 10 years in the Novice hurdles/chasers.

Let’s start with the novice hurdles:

Supreme:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) non runner, (2015) Sizing john, (2016) Supasundae, (2017) Capital force, (2018) Paloma blue, (2019) no runner, (2020) Captain guiness, (2021) Ballyadam/irascible.

Ballymore:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) Shanahan’s turn, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) non runner, (2018) minds eye, (2019) Notebook, (2020) no runner, (2021) bob olinger.

Albert Bartlett:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014 ) non runner, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) Monalee, (2018) Chris’s dream, (2019) Minella indo, (2020) Cobblers way, (2021) no runner.

Novice chases:

Arkle:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) non runner, (2015) smashing, (2016) sizing john, (2017) ordinary world/some plan/three stars, (2018) petite mouchoir, (2019) paloma blue, (2020) put the kettle on/notebook, (2021) Captain guiness.

Marsh:
(2011) Loosen my load, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) Sizing gold, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) Balko des flos, (2018) non runner, (2019) no runner, (2020) no runner, (2021) envoi Allen.

RSA:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) non runner, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) non runner, (2018) Monalee, (2019) no runner, (2020) Minella indo, (2021) Eklat de Rire.

Looking from the above it’s clear Henry hasn’t really had a runner of note in the Ballymore (notebook was 50/1) until Bob olinger or Marsh (not including Enovi). So I suppose the question is why did he choose to put Bob Olinger in the Ballymore this year?

His only runner in the supreme this year was irascible (not including Ballyadam) who appreciate it had already beaten well yet he still chose to run Bob Olinger in the Ballymore without a leading light in the supreme. Bob O was beaten by Ferny early in the season but that horse was then injured plus henry isn’t the type to shirk a challenge and not take on Appreciate it if he wanted to.

Henry said he was thinking about Bob Olinger for the supreme in February until he was convinced to go for the Ballymore even though the stats above don’t favour him running his stars in the Ballymore.

Maybe he was convinced his best trip is 2 and half, if so I would see it a strange move to go back down in trip and given the way he powered through the line.

I think it’s clear henry broke the mould and his thinking by running Bob Olinger in the Ballymore this year, why would he not do the same next year if that is his best trip?

Just a note, I know this is no where near Saxon’s great analysis and those are just my thoughts above but thought the information would be useful so everyone can see his runners over the past 10 year and make of it what they want.
 
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Priceiskey said:
So much pressure has been put on to him with the Denman comments. Topofthegame got touched off in the coral cup. Yes it was off 150 but he was beaten off 139 earlier in the season. If he got the Denman comments people would be putting him
down as well. Obviously he’s a long way off Denman but he’s still a nice horse who can make up into a 160 plus chaser.
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I agree, the trainers are encouraged to give sound bites in interviews to make exciting headlines but we, the punters, often throw those comments back at them when they don’t win every time we bet on them. I do think BMG will win a grade one chase if not a couple in the future, he has a bit of class about him but he’s still a young horse so hopefully has many years to achieve our expectations
 
DenmanSacre said:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...-for-age-jumps-scale-in-2021-22-season/484470

Change of weight allowances for 5 year olds in 2 and a half mile and 3 mile chases at Cheltenham.

5 year olds will only get 2 pounds in the Marsh, but compared to receiving nothing in the Arkle, it may be a consideration for trainers.
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Thanks for posting DS.
I wonder whether the intention is to encourage flat breds into the NH scene, certainly a group class staying 3yo on the level would now have a massive advantage in the novice events as a 4yo.
5yo used to 8lb in the Arkle until a wave of French breds won the race who were more advanced than their UK/Ire bred counterparts, I guess something similar could happen here over time.
Any other ideas ?
 
Big Chac said:
I’ve had way too much time on my hands so I thought I would delve into the Henry DeBromhead and his runners over the past 10 years in the Novice hurdles/chasers.

Let’s start with the novice hurdles:

Supreme:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) non runner, (2015) Sizing john, (2016) Supasundae, (2017) Capital force, (2018) Paloma blue, (2019) no runner, (2020) Captain guiness, (2021) Ballyadam/irascible.

Ballymore:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) Shanahan’s turn, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) non runner, (2018) minds eye, (2019) Notebook, (2020) no runner, (2021) bob olinger.

Albert Bartlett:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014 ) non runner, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) Monalee, (2018) Chris’s dream, (2019) Minella indo, (2020) Cobblers way, (2021) no runner.

Novice chases:

Arkle:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) non runner, (2015) smashing, (2016) sizing john, (2017) ordinary world/some plan/three stars, (2018) petite mouchoir, (2019) paloma blue, (2020) put the kettle on/notebook, (2021) Captain guiness.

Marsh:
(2011) Loosen my load, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) Sizing gold, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) Balko des flos, (2018) non runner, (2019) no runner, (2020) no runner, (2021) envoi Allen.

RSA:
(2011) no runner, (2012) no runner, (2013) no runner, (2014) non runner, (2015) no runner, (2016) no runner, (2017) non runner, (2018) Monalee, (2019) no runner, (2020) Minella indo, (2021) Eklat de Rire.

Looking from the above it’s clear Henry hasn’t really had a runner of note in the Ballymore (notebook was 50/1) until Bob olinger or Marsh (not including Enovi). So I suppose the question is why did he choose to put Bob Olinger in the Ballymore this year?

His only runner in the supreme this year was irascible (not including Ballyadam) who appreciate it had already beaten well yet he still chose to run Bob Olinger in the Ballymore without a leading light in the supreme. Bob O was beaten by Ferny early in the season but that horse was then injured plus henry isn’t the type to shirk a challenge and not take on Appreciate it if he wanted to.

Henry said he was thinking about Bob Olinger for the supreme in February until he was convinced to go for the Ballymore even though the stats above don’t favour him running his stars in the Ballymore.

Maybe he was convinced his best trip is 2 and half, if so I would see it a strange move to go back down in trip and given the way he powered through the line.

I think it’s clear henry broke the mould and his thinking by running Bob Olinger in the Ballymore this year, why would he not do the same next year if that is his best trip?

Just a note, I know this is no where near Saxon’s great analysis and those are just my thoughts above but thought the information would be useful so everyone can see his runners over the past 10 year and make of it what they want.
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I do agree that Bob O is Henry’s best novice hurdler to appear at Cheltenham.

He is so god, he could run anywhere at any Novice Chase trip through next season.

I also think that Henry wouldn’t shirk from pitching him in against any other novice, early, mid-season or at Cheltenham.

He would run the horse in the best race for him.

It’s a long time from Henry having to give that any thought, but it will make for an interesting topic for months. :eagerness:
 
Parachute Paddy said:
The main one would be Aspire Tower, on ratings he is 1lb higher than Bob and a year younger however you'd perhaps side with the one with a p2p background. I think the same ownership factor does come into it when they also have the same trainer unless there is nowhere else for them to go. Hypothetically speaking if AT and BO proved to be top novice chasers would you really send them both to the same race, especially if another potential top novice (AI) was also going to line up there? Would be a waste imo.

For the Brown I can only think of Holymacapony and Cobblers Way but they've got something to prove.
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comparing a second season hurdler who has been racing in open company (aspire tower) and a novice hurdler (Bob olinger) by current hurdles rating isn't favourable in my opinion. If Bob Olinger had a second season over hurdles I am pretty certain his rating would be a fair bit higher than the 160 aspire tower is currently rated. My point being Bob olinger is a better horse than aspire tower
 
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AaronLad said:
comparing a second season hurdler who has been racing in open company (aspire tower) and a novice hurdler (Bob olinger) by current hurdles rating isn't favourable in my opinion. If Bob Olinger had a second season over hurdles I am pretty certain his rating would be a fair bit higher than the 160 aspire tower is currently rated. My point being Bob olinger is a better horse than aspire tower
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Totally agree. :encouragement:
 
AaronLad said:
comparing a second season hurdler who has been racing in open company (aspire tower) and a novice hurdler (Bob olinger) by current hurdles rating isn't favourable in my opinion. If Bob Olinger had a second season over hurdles I am pretty certain his rating would be a fair bit higher than the 160 aspire tower is currently rated. My point being Bob olinger is a better horse than aspire tower
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Of course it's not favourable if you want BO to come out on top. Perhaps 'not a fair comparison' would be a better way of putting it. The question was however does HDB have anything else for the Arkle? For which, if a 160 rated hurdler went chasing surely they would come into the discussion especially if it's the same trainer and owner.

Are you implying that BO takes top rank and goes for the Arkle and others will move around him? Which would be a fair point.

I may be wrong but I thought Saxon was hinting more at targets. I agree with Bob Olinger being the better horse but I'm not sure that was the point here.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
Of course it's not favourable if you want BO to come out on top. Perhaps 'not a fair comparison' would be a better way of putting it. The question was however does HDB have anything else for the Arkle? For which, if a 160 rated hurdler went chasing surely they would come into the discussion especially if it's the same trainer and owner.

Are you implying that BO takes top rank and goes for the Arkle and others will move around him? Which would be a fair point.

I may be wrong but I thought Saxon was hinting more at targets. I agree with Bob Olinger being the better horse but I'm not sure that was the point here.
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I was just advising against comparing ratings the way you was. And explaining why it's not a good idea.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
Of course it's not favourable if you want BO to come out on top. Perhaps 'not a fair comparison' would be a better way of putting it. The question was however does HDB have anything else for the Arkle? For which, if a 160 rated hurdler went chasing surely they would come into the discussion especially if it's the same trainer and owner.

Are you implying that BO takes top rank and goes for the Arkle and others will move around him? Which would be a fair point.

I may be wrong but I thought Saxon was hinting more at targets. I agree with Bob Olinger being the better horse but I'm not sure that was the point here.
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I was hinting that Henry has tended to run his better novice chasers in the 2M Arkle and 3M RSA, and not the mid-trip.

That would change in time, and the Marsh start to figure more equally for him too, if

a) he has a horse who excels over a mid-trip more than they can do over 2M or 3M

b) he has a group of excellent top class novice chasers and he wants to divide them across all three Grade 1 Novice Chases.

Henry has always appeared to favour running his good horses at Cheltenham in the spring above anywhere else (no holding back for Aintree etc) - which is great for us Cheltenham Festival fans.
 
I feel like the marsh is becoming a more fashionable race these days

Trainers maybe not wanting to bottom their future gold cup horses in the RSA which can be a bit of a slog if they have the speed for 2m4f
 
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I would totally agree with this, the old rsa can be a very gruelling race.
 
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