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2022 Novice Chase Division

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I’d think that’s on the back of Dusart not winning. Probably the last of the unknowns in the 2m novice division.
 
I think BMG looked like Fridays race at Aintree was a bridge too far, he just didn’t pick up when you thought he would like he did at Newbury. He’s not disgraced himself finishing second but their was a lot of expectation he’d win one of them. Hopefully he will return next season a stronger horse and confident chaser but more importantly his trainer goes to the doctor to either have a bollock transplant or finds out a cure for his Festival allergy
 
Lobos said:
Appreciate It very popular today. Into 11/4 in several places today. Very short !
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Rightly so I think. If he can jump there’s not an awful lot of competition that we’re aware of is there? Looking down the list on Oddschecker, many will likely line up in a different race (My Drogo, Bob Olinger, Ferny Hollow, Honeysuckle, etc), and many are unlikely to be good enough*

*the likes of Dusart, Ballyadam, Blue Lord etc will have to improve a lot for a fence to get competitive with Appreciate It.

Will probably be a year too early for Quilixios, the one I’ll be monitoring is Aspire Tower.
 
The risk with getting stuck into AI for the Arkle is the risk he goes up in trip or BO drops down, the latter not implausible with his trainers liking for the race. Hopefully we’ll get some useful quotes at Punchestown.

I do wonder if the respective trainers will look to name check races before the start of next season, the same as Hendo and Gordon did for Shishkin and EA this season. It makes some sense to do this as it makes it clear to the other big gun that they can easily avoid each other. If Willie comes out and name checks Arkle for AI I don’t reckon Debromhead will want to head down that route. Fingers crossed for some early indications so I can use race specific free bets throughout the summer on these two.
 
Garrison Savannah said:
Rightly so I think. If he can jump there’s not an awful lot of competition that we’re aware of is there? Looking down the list on Oddschecker, many will likely line up in a different race (My Drogo, Bob Olinger, Ferny Hollow, Honeysuckle, etc), and many are unlikely to be good enough*

*the likes of Dusart, Ballyadam, Blue Lord etc will have to improve a lot for a fence to get competitive with Appreciate It.

Will probably be a year too early for Quilixios, the one I’ll be monitoring is Aspire Tower.
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It's just the odds though. Shishkin was 5/1 TWAR this time last year. The bookies have gone proper OTT this year.
 
The King Pimm said:
I think BMG looked like Fridays race at Aintree was a bridge too far, he just didn’t pick up when you thought he would like he did at Newbury. He’s not disgraced himself finishing second but their was a lot of expectation he’d win one of them. Hopefully he will return next season a stronger horse and confident chaser but more importantly his trainer goes to the doctor to either have a bollock transplant or finds out a cure for his Festival allergy
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So much pressure has been put on to him with the Denman comments. Topofthegame got touched off in the coral cup. Yes it was off 150 but he was beaten off 139 earlier in the season. If he got the Denman comments people would be putting him
down as well. Obviously he’s a long way off Denman but he’s still a nice horse who can make up into a 160 plus chaser.
 
Appreciate it is a year older than most of the other horses hes been running against so its reasonably likely he has less scope for improvement physically

And he was definitely flattered by the winning distance in the supreme

Most of the other horses were very keen and didnt give their true running

is he the likeliest winner probably yes

Is he a good price, definitely not imo

Blue Lord for instance pulled like a train all the way round, if he learns to settle there is huge potential for improvement

He also looked like a big horse who had a big frame to fill and that development from 6 to 7 could offer significant improvement
 
Blue Lord and the pulling argument whilst is a fact, it's getting a bit 'boring' (for want of a better word) in people trying to bridge the gap between him and the top horses!

Not a dig at you FF91! Just in general I've seen it a lot!
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
The risk with getting stuck into AI for the Arkle is the risk he goes up in trip or BO drops down, the latter not implausible with his trainers liking for the race. Hopefully we’ll get some useful quotes at Punchestown.

I do wonder if the respective trainers will look to name check races before the start of next season, the same as Hendo and Gordon did for Shishkin and EA this season. It makes some sense to do this as it makes it clear to the other big gun that they can easily avoid each other. If Willie comes out and name checks Arkle for AI I don’t reckon Debromhead will want to head down that route. Fingers crossed for some early indications so I can use race specific free bets throughout the summer on these two.
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2min50 in RC:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jPk3jfG3SR8

I’d be shocked if he didn’t start off in a 2m chase. As long as he’s winning over the minimum trip there’ll be no reason to step him up in trip.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
2min50 in RC:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jPk3jfG3SR8

I’d be shocked if he didn’t start off in a 2m chase. As long as he’s winning over the minimum trip there’ll be no reason to step him up in trip.
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I can recall Willie think he was a Bartlett or Ballymore hurdler, before this season began. :barbershop_quartet_member:

And someone posting on here to skip hurdles and go chasing, for the 3M6F National Hunt Chase.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
I can recall Willie think he was a Bartlett or Ballymore hurdler, before this season began. :barbershop_quartet_member:

And someone posting on here to skip hurdles and go chasing, for the 3M6F National Hunt Chase.
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There’s a difference though isn’t there in that he will surely only go up in trip if beat over 2 miles. That is different from these Ballymore type Novice hurdlers who often start off at 2 miles and if performing to a high standard run the risk of never actually being stepped up. We’ve seen this 3 of the last 4 years with Samcro, EA and now AI. All 3 could have stayed at 2 miles and gone for the Supreme, it was perhaps only the fact that Gordon’s stable were on early for the Ballymore that his 2 didn’t.

Now Bob O might also start at 2 miles but highly unlikely that he will run against AI in the early season so if Willie keeps saying Arkle for his horse (assuming he adapts to fences), i’d make it reasonable odds on that De Bromhead decided Marsh for Bob O (no disrespect to My Drogo).
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
There’s a difference though isn’t there in that he will surely only go up in trip if beat over 2 miles. That is different from these Ballymore type Novice hurdlers who often start off at 2 miles and if performing to a high standard run the risk of never actually being stepped up. We’ve seen this 3 of the last 4 years with Samcro, EA and now AI. All 3 could have stayed at 2 miles and gone for the Supreme, it was perhaps only the fact that Gordon’s stable were on early for the Ballymore that his 2 didn’t.

Now Bob O might also start at 2 miles but highly unlikely that he will run against AI in the early season so if Willie keeps saying Arkle for his horse (assuming he adapts to fences), i’d make it reasonable odds on that De Bromhead decided Marsh for Bob O (no disrespect to My Drogo).
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The Arkle and the RSA (Brown) are the pinnacle Novice Chase races, in the whole season, for a lot of trainers still.
With the Marsh often used for horses that can't win the Arkle or RSA, because others are better, or better at those trips.
(Gordon broke the mould with the EA plan last season, but that was unusual)

If they havent met before then, I don't see Bob O moving to avoid AI, next March, in the Arkle - why would he?

If Henry follows his usual plan he would look for Bob O to be campaigned for the Arkle or RSA.
(He has always done this, to date).

He may change for the first time, of course, and put the Marsh as his target, for his best Novice Chaser, but personally I'm not convinced of that at the present time.
Until he inherited EA's plan and only Festival entry a month ago, he had one runner in a decade in the Marsh.
- Does he have anything better for the Arkle or RSA?

My Drogo doesnt really come into it (until the Festival) as AI and Bob O aren't going to meet him until Cheltenham.

One of them may need to take him on, in March, but who knows if these will be three best novice chasers by then.

If a trainer thinks he has the best Novice chaser, there's no reason not to take on all-comers.
They don't tend to shirk a challenge in Ireland, with their race programme.

Looking at the Arkle (further back than this March and Shishkin)

Were these the best prospects for the Arkle the previous April?
* PTKO beat Fakir D in 2020
* Duc De Genieveres beat US and Them in 2019
* Footpad beat Brain Power in 2018

We all try to find some key horses and get the top of some races sorted, soon after each Cheltenham, but its often not as easy, than 2021 with Shishkin, Monkfish and EA.
 
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Worth bearing in mind that HDB was happy to let Bob face off with Ferny first up last season. He doesn’t strike me as a trainer to avoid horses and who to say AI is better than Bob o ? It could end up AI might go up in trip to avoid Bob...
 
Just trying to get into HDB's head here, what are peoples thoughts on bob O's defeat by ferny H, did this decide for henry the bally route?
 
Birds Nest said:
Just trying to get into HDB's head here, what are peoples thoughts on bob O's defeat by ferny H, did this decide for henry the bally route?
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Yeah he's basically said as much since. Said he started the season as a Supreme horse and went to Gowran thinking they would beat Ferny.
 
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Outlaw said:
Worth bearing in mind that HDB was happy to let Bob face off with Ferny first up last season. He doesn’t strike me as a trainer to avoid horses and who to say AI is better than Bob o ? It could end up AI might go up in trip to avoid Bob...
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Yep, though worth remembering that some owners have influence over targets.
Cheveley Park allowed A Plus Tard and Allaho to square off at Leopardstown so maybe there is some encouragement for a future Envoi Allen Gold Cup bid while A Plus Tard is around...
 
Saxon Warrior said:
- Does he have anything better for the Arkle or RSA?
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The main one would be Aspire Tower, on ratings he is 1lb higher than Bob and a year younger however you'd perhaps side with the one with a p2p background. I think the same ownership factor does come into it when they also have the same trainer unless there is nowhere else for them to go. Hypothetically speaking if AT and BO proved to be top novice chasers would you really send them both to the same race, especially if another potential top novice (AI) was also going to line up there? Would be a waste imo.

For the Brown I can only think of Holymacapony and Cobblers Way but they've got something to prove.
 
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