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2022 Grand National

Doesnt really look much of a positive but Ballyoptic at the sales tomorrow they expect around ?150k shall we club together lol
 
Save that money and put it on the winner burrows saint :angel:
 
I was big on Milan Native, but his run in the Ultima didn’t fill me with confidence. The other one I liked is the sadly departed Bellshill so I’m back to the drawing board. Cloth Cap is obvious but I’ve missed the price so won’t be backing antepost.

I like him but I’m not interested in Lord Du Mesnil unless it’s a bog so couldn’t back antepost. The ones of most interest are Lake View Lad, Burrows Saint, and Talkischeap.
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
Anyone a clear view on what Rachel Blackmore will ride? Minella Times? It’s the obvious one to back now as a massive shortener on the day if we can decide which one she’ll definitely ride
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Other than Cloth Cap this is has been my main dart for the race. It was massively overpriced at 50s and 40s a week ago but has been backed into a more sensible price now. Looking at the dosage figures, it's more stoutly bred than the vast majority of the field so the extra distance could actually unlock plenty of improvement.
If Rachel rides, and down at the bottom the weights, it will go off around 8-1 second fav I'd imagine. It remains a trade with a good upside at the current prices.
 
Garrison Savannah said:
I was big on Milan Native, but his run in the Ultima didn’t fill me with confidence. The other one I liked is the sadly departed Bellshill so I’m back to the drawing board. Cloth Cap is obvious but I’ve missed the price so won’t be backing antepost.

I like him but I’m not interested in Lord Du Mesnil unless it’s a bog so couldn’t back antepost. The ones of most interest are Lake View Lad, Burrows Saint, and Talkischeap.
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There's plenty to like about Milan Native Garrison, especially if it comes up soft. Jumps well, won a big handicap previously and could have Kennedy in the saddle? My concerns were the lack of form and experience over 24f+. I tend to favour more proven types for the GN. His rating is also about as high as he's ever shown. Is he unexposed or just at his ceiling?
 
Hi Shergar, I wasn’t worried about the form as I assumed the handbrake was on. However, once the weights were framed I expected the handbrake to come off at Cheltenham and we’d see a big run - especially given his previous form round Prestbury Park.

However, he didn’t look right from the start did he? Jumped poorly and never travelled. I didn’t expect him to win the Ultima but I expected him to be in the mix coming down the hill. Unfortunately he was being ridden long before then. He was given a fairly kind run in and not thrashed to the finish so maybe he can go another day.

All in all, I’m no where near as confident as I was!
 
Garrison Savannah said:
Hi Shergar, I wasn’t worried about the form as I assumed the handbrake was on. However, once the weights were framed I expected the handbrake to come off at Cheltenham and we’d see a big run - especially given his previous form round Prestbury Park.

However, he didn’t look right from the start did he? Jumped poorly and never travelled. I didn’t expect him to win the Ultima but I expected him to be in the mix coming down the hill. Unfortunately he was being ridden long before then. He was given a fairly kind run in and not thrashed to the finish so maybe he can go another day.

All in all, I’m no where near as confident as I was!
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I remember Gordy saying that the Ultima run was just a stepping stone to The National so perhaps ok to forgive.
 
Moby123 said:
Other than Cloth Cap this is has been my main dart for the race. It was massively overpriced at 50s and 40s a week ago but has been backed into a more sensible price now. Looking at the dosage figures, it's more stoutly bred than the vast majority of the field so the extra distance could actually unlock plenty of improvement.
If Rachel rides, and down at the bottom the weights, it will go off around 8-1 second fav I'd imagine. It remains a trade with a good upside at the current prices.
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I’ve got involved. General public love a female jockey anyway never mind one with Blackmores current profile; as you say every chance this goes off second favourite on the day
 
Not fancied anything for a National as strong as Cloth Cap this year since the One For Arthur year. Had him from his Warwick prep as the National winner that year at 40s down to 14s and the Kelso prep for CC was exactly the same. Only thing is this time the market has seen it.

He just wins imo. It’s a National so it’s hard to be too keen on anything but if he stays sound and jumps round, he’s far too well handicapped to be out of the frame. At 5s (think he’s actually shorter now), I think he’s an easy easy way bet to nothing.

Have had a decent chunk on already but I’m happy to go in again on the day when the bookies offer crazy high numbers of places as an each way bet. If he jumps round, he’s not going to be far off winning let alone the place element. Burrows Saint the danger at this stage for me.

Anyway.. my point of posting was to say that Eggs you have a superb bet there with the 250/1 double! Wish I’d have seen the 66/1 double from before the Kelso race tbh. With the benefit of hindsight, that looks huge.
 
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Middle_Of_March said:
Not fancied anything for a National as strong as Cloth Cap this year since the One For Arthur year. Had him from his Warwick prep as the National winner that year at 40s down to 14s and the Kelso prep for CC was exactly the same. Only thing is this time the market has seen it.

He just wins imo. It’s a National so it’s hard to be too keen on anything but if he stays sound and jumps round, he’s far too well handicapped to be out of the frame. At 5s (think he’s actually shorter now), I think he’s an easy easy way bet to nothing.

Have had a decent chunk on already but I’m happy to go in again on the day when the bookies offer crazy high numbers of places as an each way bet. If he jumps round, he’s not going to be far off winning let alone the place element. Burrows Saint the danger at this stage for me.

Anyway.. my point of posting was to say that Eggs you have a superb bet there with the 250/1 double! Wish I’d have seen the 66/1 double from before the Kelso race tbh. With the benefit of hindsight, that looks huge.
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....cheers, MoM. There was a decent place offer (1st 6) that I took ahead of the Ladbroke. It’s a couple of nice tickets to be sitting on, but it’s still the National & there’s a lot of fences to be jumped. Fingers crossed.
 
I know this is guesswork. But who thinks that Bet365 will do their day of race half money back offer?
 
PresentingPercy88 said:
Paddy Power will be paying 10 places on the day, I have been reliably informed
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Certainly looks like it's the PP brand the group are pushing so far as horse racing offers are concerned, Sky value seems to be disappearing by the day, PP accounts look like becoming a valuable commodity...
 
Interesting that PP/BF go 20-1 DISCORAMA while several other firms have him 33-1 nrnb.

I assumed he wouldn't go to Aintree following his wind op but maybe PP know otherwise.

Certainly a leading player off 10st 6lbs if he shows up and 33s with a safety net looks decent.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Interesting that PP/BF go 20-1 DISCORAMA while several other firms have him 33-1 nrnb.

I assumed he wouldn't go to Aintree following his wind op but maybe PP know otherwise.

Certainly a leading player off 10st 6lbs if he shows up and 33s with a safety net looks decent.
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Might bet him in the place only market but surely he won’t be winning ?
 
Garrison Savannah said:
Might bet him in the place only market but surely he won’t be winning ?
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Really?

Finished 2 1/2 lengths third in the Ultima last year - giving winner The Conditional 9lbs.

Runner-up to Le Breuil in the NH Chase in 2019 - beaten half a length.

Split Delta Work and A Plus Tard (rec 5lbs) in the grade 1 Champions Novice Chase over 3 miles at Punchestown 2 years ago.

There's also evidence that he may be best in the spring.

His career record in March/April reads: 3 2 2 5 2 2. Each of those races was worth a minimum of 54k apart from the last one which was his sole start in a bumper.

Discorama's record in big fields with 18 runners minimum is also impressive: 3 8 2 1 2 1

It's easy to say with Discorama: "He might be in the shake up but he hardly ever wins."

And it is all a matter of opinion.

But I'd take the each way bet at 33-1 over the 9.2 exchange place bet any day of the week.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Really?

Finished 2 1/2 lengths third in the Ultima last year - giving winner The Conditional 9lbs.

Runner-up to Le Breuil in the NH Chase in 2019 - beaten half a length.

Split Delta Work and A Plus Tard (rec 5lbs) in the grade 1 Champions Novice Chase over 3 miles at Punchestown 2 years ago.

There's also evidence that he may be best in the spring.

His career record in March/April reads: 3 2 2 5 2 2. Each of those races was worth a minimum of 54k apart from the last one which was his sole start in a bumper.

Discorama's record in big fields with 18 runners minimum is also impressive: 3 8 2 1 2 1

It's easy to say with Discorama: "He might be in the shake up but he hardly ever wins."

And it is all a matter of opinion.

But I'd take the each way bet at 33-1 over the 9.2 exchange place bet any day of the week.
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....just reminded to check a double I’d virtually forgotten about;

Galvin 14-1 NHC/Discorama GN 40-1.

Still sitting as open in my PP account which is a nice bonus as I cashed the 40-1 single in.
 
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Eggs said:
....just reminded to check a double I’d virtually forgotten about;

Galvin 14-1 NHC/Discorama GN 40-1.

Still sitting as open in my PP account which is a nice bonus as I cashed the 40-1 single in.
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Love it, cracking bet - good luck Eggs.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
Really?

Finished 2 1/2 lengths third in the Ultima last year - giving winner The Conditional 9lbs.

Runner-up to Le Breuil in the NH Chase in 2019 - beaten half a length.

Split Delta Work and A Plus Tard (rec 5lbs) in the grade 1 Champions Novice Chase over 3 miles at Punchestown 2 years ago.

There's also evidence that he may be best in the spring.

His career record in March/April reads: 3 2 2 5 2 2. Each of those races was worth a minimum of 54k apart from the last one which was his sole start in a bumper.

Discorama's record in big fields with 18 runners minimum is also impressive: 3 8 2 1 2 1

It's easy to say with Discorama: "He might be in the shake up but he hardly ever wins."

And it is all a matter of opinion.

But I'd take the each way bet at 33-1 over the 9.2 exchange place bet any day of the week.
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I’m happy with my lazy assessment of he doesn’t want to get his head in front often enough - and I don’t anticipate he’s going to go to the well after 4m+

If he wins, it’d be because he’d won by the elbow.

Happy to agree to disagree!
 
Me name gives it away obviously but here in Liverpool am roughly 3 to 4 miles away from the course and I’m all in on the fav at 14/1 praying for no rain haha! It’s currently been pissing down for most of today,will gladly keep you all updated up until the big day........please no more rain!!
 
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