2022 Champion Hurdle

[Istabraq]

Prices as at 23/3/21

Honeysuckle 3/1
Bob Olinger 8/1
Ferny Hollow 12/1
Quilixios 14/1
Appreciate It 16/1
Epatante 16/1
Sharjah 25/1
Black Tears 33/1
Blue Lord 33/1
Haut en Coleurs 33/1
Zanihiyr 33/1
Abacadabras 33/1
Concertista 40/1
Saint Roi 40/1
Aspire Tower 40/1

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I sincerely apologise to anyone who was deep on ferny hollow, its my fault hes going chasing after putting my free bet on him for this on Monday

 

[Zachx02]

With ferny going chasing, I hate backing short priced favourites but with all the novices last season who seemed very good going chasing, 2/1 Honeysuckle seems value to me considering how much better she is compared to all of her rivals

 

[Trap5]

With ferny going chasing, I hate backing short priced favourites but with all the novices last season who seemed very good going chasing, 2/1 Honeysuckle seems value to me considering how much better she is compared to all of her rivals

Time will tell if she is much better. She is now a year older and there could be a very smart one coming through

 

[Imperial Commander]

It certainly doesn't do her chances any harm if Bobby O, Appreciate It & Ferny are all going chasing!

That leaves Echoes In Rain, Epatante & Sharjah as Honey's biggest market rivals so there's quite a gap to bridge there.

 

[Eudipe]

I sincerely apologise to anyone who was deep on ferny hollow, its my fault hes going chasing after putting my free bet on him for this on Monday

With you there, literally pulled the trigger on him for the Champion Hurdle this afternoon... hoping it's another Mullins curveball!

 

[darlojim]

Monmiral staying hurdling for now, goes for the fighting fifth - Nicholls

Thinks grade 1 at aintree would be a perfect target, then novice chasing next year.

 

[Lobos]

Time will tell if she is much better. She is now a year older and there could be a very smart one coming through

Shewearsitwell by any chance:barbershop_quartet_member:

 

[Odin]

Surely ferny going chasing is a boost for echoes/swiw - I'm assuming Willie could easily have kept ferny over hurdles if he'd wanted to? Naturally both mares need to improve but there's no reason to believe they can't right? Hopefully for me swiw goes mares instead of here though!

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Monmiral staying hurdling for now, goes for the fighting fifth - Nicholls

Thinks grade 1 at aintree would be a perfect target, then novice chasing next year.

Thanks for sharing. Where did you read this darlojim?

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Monmiral staying hurdling for now, goes for the fighting fifth - Nicholls

Thinks grade 1 at aintree would be a perfect target, then novice chasing next year.

Makes complete sense.

Whats he got to beat in the mid-season Grade 1's - Epatante, and not much depth behind.

The depth in the Novice Chasing division looks fierce enough, at this moment in time.

A years more strength and experience will do Monmiral the world of good before he goes chasing at the still young age of 5 rising 6.

 

[Quevega]

Makes complete sense.

Whats he got to beat in the mid-season Grade 1's - Epatante, and not much depth behind.

The depth in the Novice Chasing division looks fierce enough, at this moment in time.

A years more strength and experience will do Monmiral the world of good before he goes chasing at the still young age of 5 rising 6.

No depth in the uk novice chasers whatsoever!!!
whereas even a good juvenile will struggle in open grade 1 hurdles over here against the established average hurdlers the uk has

 

[Quevega]

I notice the Irish trainers are going chasing with their french bred 4 year olds more often now

 

[Ice]

I sincerely apologise to anyone who was deep on ferny hollow, its my fault hes going chasing after putting my free bet on him for this on Monday

I'm hoping willie is trying to put us away and ferny will be going for the champion hurdle, it's always best not to take anything he says as gospel !

 

[ComplyOrDie]

IF Willie does send Ferny Hollow chasing that still leaves him with 4 or 5 potential contenders, at least, for the Champion Hurdle, in market order, my opinion of 5 of them:

Echoes In Rain - For me Echoes In Rain is under priced on what she's achieved to date. Her figures means she needs to improve a fair deal, and whilst she could do so, being only 5 years old, it would also be unlike Willie to chuck a mare straight into the Champion Hurdle off the back of a novice season, they usually have to 'earn the right', according to Ruby, to be given a shot at the race, which means they usually go down the Mares Hurdle route first. Obviously knowing Honeysuckle will get the 7lbs allowance from the boys may change Willies approach on this, but he's not usually one to be swayed by something like this. I do wonder, given her keenness as well, whether she'll be seen to better effect on flatter tracks too. I've chucked some free bets on her before she won at Punchestown, but I think they may be wasted bets personally.

Sharjah - He hasn't beat Honeysuckle in 4 attempts, and will be 9 at the 2022 festival. I can't see it happening now, or ever, unless, god forbid, something happened to the mare during a race. Happy to leave him well alone, for all that he's been incredibly consistent in the race when completing.

Saldier - Already banged the drum about Saldier, needs ground in his favour, ideally 'Good' in the description somewhere, bang in form this summer, and tactics may also play a key part. Can see him going quiet during the winter period (softer ground), and would hope he'd have a break after the Christmas period and go to the festival fresh. If all this happens I think we'll see his best performance yet in the Champion Hurdle of 2022.

Concertista - Difficult to knock her Cheltenham form of 2-1-2, though many would have hoped she'd be good enough to have beaten Black Tears at this years festival. It may be she is seen to best effect over a stiff 2m, given the manner of her victory in the Mares Novice hurdle of 2020, and if that is the case the Champion Hurdle would be her preferred option. Rated just 152 it may also be she is just not good enough, and they may work towards a handicap mark for her instead. County Hurdle?

French Aseel - Probably the most interesting of the quintet I've listed. A striking debut for previous connections, who recorded a super impressive RPR for a juvenile on debut, of 139, before moving to Willie. Just to put that RPR in perspective, the only horse, that I have managed to find in recent years, to achieve higher on hurdles debut as a juvenile was Goshen, however as we know, Goshen has his issues (especially going left handed), and French Aseel looked fairly straight forward, and his win was going left handed, so no issue on that front. The fact he didn't run again this year was a positive, with regards to the Champion Hurdle, IMO. His one and only form line (which can be taken with a big pinch of salt at this stage) puts him ahead of the likes of Zanahiyr, Quilixios and Jeff Kidder, however, the one big question mark I have of him was can he go on from that debut run? If he can he could be absolutely anything. Only time will tell.

 

[Attaglance]

IMO - Aspire Tower at 50/1 is a cracking E/W bet in this with cash out, came 4th last year coming out of his Juvenile season, ran very well during the season (can forgive his last run as a long season and Henry’s horses were poor at Punchestown) and I believe he is confirmed staying over hurdles. Won’t have the beating of Honeysuckle, but a worthy back up at the prices.

He has raced 8 times over hurdles, winning 3 and 2nd twice, looked the winner when coming down at the last at the DRF in 2020, 4th in the Champion Hurdle last year and then a race too many last year finishing last at Punchestown, were we know Henry’s horses all underperformed at the meeting, excluding the brilliant Honeysuckle..

Another very interesting player in this could be Concertista at 40/1, no brainier bet E/W with cash out. I know a few are keen on her coming here and her case has already been made.

Eptante at 16/1 I feel certainly has merit and has been overlooked. Yes Henderson is a plank, but surely he can’t have another shocking season like last year. We all know previous festival form is KING and this mare has been 1st and 3rd in the last 2 renewals of this race.

Anyone creating a book for this race or want a few E/W darts to throw at the race, IMO the above 3 you can’t go far wrong with.

Honeysuckle will be very hard to beat and IMO the winner, but it would be nice to fill the places too with a few fancy prices.. :greedy_dollars:

 

[Guinness Village]

Not sure where to go beyond the favourite, and it's only October!!The old guard don't look like they're good enough to turn the tables(sharjah, saldier, epatante, aspire tower, abacadabras, jason the militant, concertista) and the best novice hurdlers are going chasing(bob, AI, FH). Arguably the best juvenile hurdler(monmiral) looks like they may wait for the Aintree hurdle. What's left? Echoes in rain, French aseel and quilixios.Possibly jeff kidder.
The things that temper my enthusiasm, are a short price and only one horse in the last ten years has managed to defend their crown. Surely the mare or one of the juveniles will improve enough to at least be competitive. I guess we'll have a sighter after the WKD hurdle. And certainly by the time we've had the Morgiana and the FF, we'll have a better idea. Which betting slips to light the fire with!!
Personally, Echoes in rain has been on my radar since she beat MC Muldoon, and I've backed her each way accordingly. She's got to improve a fair bit, but it's not impossible.

 

[Quevega]

IMO, Echoes in Rain has just about the best credentials for a novice hurdler stepping into open class that we've seen for a while.
Her form is very closely matched to the impressive winners of the supreme and ballymore, and they would be high up the betting if staying hurdling. Saxon Warrior did a comparison on them I think.

I do agree that the step up to open class needs taking (as is obviously always the case), and she may not be quite up to Honeysuckle's level by the end of the season, but she is in the right hands.
Visually she looks open to massive improvement and she's obviously still only 5.
If she's competitive in the early season grade 1's she competes in, then I reckon she'll be a live one in March.
She'll probably avoid Honeysuckle at least until February in Dublin, and even then they may opt for a different prep run.
​​​​​​​I doubt she'll be campaigned for the mares hurdle myself and think this is skewed thinking.

 

[Quevega]

The more I look at the market for this race, the Saldier backers like ComplyOrDie are probably on a decent bet.
Most of the market is made up of juveniles and horses going chasing.
What is odd, is that many bookmakers like PP etc don't even have him in the market.

I don't buy the ground and reasons why he may be better this year than last.
I think he's simply in better form. Based on his last 2 runs.
The caveat is the Galway hurdle form and his last race look potentially iffy. He might have beaten shit and just be in a bit better form.
Which is why I won't be backing him until he runs in the morgiana, and probably in a special if priced well enough.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

IMO, Echoes in Rain has just about the best credentials for a novice hurdler stepping into open class that we've seen for a while.
Her form is very closely matched to the impressive winners of the supreme and ballymore, and they would be high up the betting if staying hurdling. Saxon Warrior did a comparison on them I think.

I do agree that the step up to open class needs taking (as is obviously always the case), and she may not be quite up to Honeysuckle's level by the end of the season, but she is in the right hands.
Visually she looks open to massive improvement and she's obviously still only 5.
If she's competitive in the early season grade 1's she competes in, then I reckon she'll be a live one in March.
She'll probably avoid Honeysuckle at least until February in Dublin, and even then they may opt for a different prep run.
​​​​​​​I doubt she'll be campaigned for the mares hurdle myself and think this is skewed thinking.

Honey is going to the 2M4F Hattons Grace first as usual.

Then not racing until the Irish Champion Hurdle at the DRF

That leaves Echoes In Rain (and others) to have a crack at the two 2M Grade 1's in Ireland this year, The Morgiana and then the Matheson Hurdle on 29th December.

I am also considering that some of the Irish could come for the Fighting Fifth and the Kempton Christmas Hurdle too, given our poor field of 2M hurdlers.

Plenty to go for without seeing Honeysuckle at all until March (or the DRF at the earliest).