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2022 Champion Bumper

Best Candidate so far would be Classic Getaway then. Maybe he will be 'the one'.
 
Lobos said:
Best Candidate so far would be Classic Getaway then. Maybe he will be 'the one'.
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Spot on Lobos but I reckon the chances are we have yet to see the winner.

Classic Getaway and I Am Maximus both posted 125 which would certainly give them place prospects at least. But IAM looks set for hurdles.

The more time I spend looking into this the more fascinating it becomes.

Just been through the Oddschecker prices for next year's bumper and the only horses who do fit the bill probably won't run in the race.

Journey With Me posted a 131 rpr on bumper debut and Dysart Dynamo hit 132.

Henry's already said JWM is set for a hurdling campaign and I imagine Dysart Dynamo will go the same way.

Three others in the market have yet to make their bumper debut including Gordon's American Mike and Glowing Account (Willie)


Here's the current market (best prices) with debut rprs

10-1 Classic Getaway 125
12-1 Pink in the Park 115
12-1 Grangeclare West 115
20-1 American Mike
20-1 Cool Survivor
20-1 Hunters Yarn 100
20-1 Dark Raven 121
25-1 I Am Maximus 125
25-1 Guily Billy (going hurdling says Henry)
25-1 Nikini 100
25-1 Jonbon 124
25-1 Hob House 106
25-1 Nos Na Gaoithe 99
25-1 Journey With Me 131
25-1 Dysart Dynamo 132
33-1 Timeforatune 120
33-1 Ashroe Diamond 113
33-1 Level Neverending 100
33-1 Au Fleuron 103
33-1 Glowing Account (Willie)
40-1 Champ Kiely 121
40-1 Go Dante 118
40-1 Non Binding 8 (coughed)
50-1 Might Potter 103
66-1 Wells Glory 109
100-1 Big Changes 92
100-1 Best Pal 82
100-1 Bolintlea 100


Using the debut rpr yardstick would have also found the first two finishers in the 2019 bumper.

1. Envoi Allen 131
2, Blue Sari 126
3 Thyme Hill111
4 Abacadabras 113
5 118
6 107
7 108
8 120
9 125
10 85
11 105
12 113
13 109
14 101

In 2018 only one horse in the field posted a debut rpr above 121. That was Carefully Selected who notched a whopping 138 but he was beaten a neck by Relegate.

1.Relegate 99 25-1
2. Carefully Selected 138 6-1
3 Tornado Flyer 116 14-1
4 Acey Milan 93 9-2 fav
5 117
6 120
7 110
8 121
9 104
10 112
11 98
12 115
13 112
14 117
15 88
16 101
17 106
18 100
19 107
20 118
21 84
22 114
23 115

2017 is interesting because it sort of blows this theory out of the water!!!

But the one saving grace is that only one of the field who lined up qualified under the rpr debut stats - Willie's 11/2 second favourite Carter McKay who trailed in 13th.

So only one bet would have gone down the tubes.

1. Fayonagh 88 7-1
2 Debuchet 112 10-1
3 Claimantakinforgan 115 22-1
4 116
5 110
6 87
7 113
8 105
9 125
10 89
11 119
12 111
13 125
14 123
15 128
16 94
17 113
18104
19 107
20 97
21 92
22 97


Bumper betting strategy this season:

My view is that none of the horses who have run in bumpers so far will be good enough to win the big one in March.

I only want to be on board a horse who posts a minimum 128rpr on debut.

Gordon has said American Mike will stick to bumpers this season and has lined him up for the Down Royal race where Sir Gerhard posted 131.

I wasn't overly impressed with American Mike's ptp run even though he won by 20 lengths!!!!

But he's obviously with the right connections in Gordie and Codd, his ptp mark was a shade better than Sir gerhard and...I have been wrong so many times before.

So, as several of the market leaders won't come up to scratch - in my view - I've jumped on board now and will hopefully be able to cash out if he fails to record an exceptional debut rpr (128 minimum).

Willie will no doubt have something up his sleeve and I'll back anything else that hits 128 on debut - but if recent years are any guide the list won't be very long, maybe 3 at most.

It's probably the closest I'll ever come to making a book - perhaps more accurately a pamphlet - but I'm having fun.

6pts win AMERICAN MIKE at 16-1 in the Champion Bumper.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
I wasn't overly impressed with American Mike's ptp run even though he won by 20 lengths!!!!

[...]

6pts win AMERICAN MIKE at 16-1 in the Champion Bumper.
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great write up. enjoyed how it read to me like you'd talked yourself out of American Mike with the p2p performance and then you slap down a 6 pointer - rate it :wink-new:
 
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There's a good reason that the official handicappers want evidence from 3 runs.

The problem with RPRs is that they have to do them for every race and there is often no supporting evidence for debutants and novices. If I see a run of RPRs that goes 137/138/143/137 I incline to the view that the 143 is probably the one that isn't right but it's entirely possible that the final 137 was the exception due to a number of circumstances. I wouldn't be taking RPRs as primary evidence but we probably all use them to support a previously held view.

Interesting points nevertheless. Thanks.
 
Was encouraged to see American Mike won on good ground also for that P2P in the fastest time that day. I was thinking pedigree screams stayer but depends how he is ridden etc when we see him.

With that route now mentioned it’s a no brainer to back him for the Bumper at this stage.

Chev Park seems to be sending all their ones hurdling.
 
American Mike still 20/1 with Corals if anyone is interested
 
I wish we had somewhere out of the public domain for this kind of stuff. We're into an area where I believe there is an edge. There's no edge if everyone is doing it, and I'd much prefer just members can access this kind of stuff. If anyone reads mu diary, they'll see there's other compelling stats for the Supreme for example.

However, the point here is that knowing that the Mullins and Elliott horses dominate the Bumper, you can essentially back those that are either pre-highlighted or are entered in the right races, and then take a call whether to offload them again based on the figure they produce first time up.

In the end I decided to follow my own advice and I backed American Mike. There's not too much to lose doing so I think. It feels better to have the price tucked away rather than potentially chase him later with roll-ups.
 
Spectre said:
I wish we had somewhere out of the public domain for this kind of stuff. We're into an area where I believe there is an edge. There's no edge if everyone is doing it, and I'd much prefer just members can access this kind of stuff. If anyone reads mu diary, they'll see there's other compelling stats for the Supreme for example.

However, the point here is that knowing that the Mullins and Elliott horses dominate the Bumper, you can essentially back those that are either pre-highlighted or are entered in the right races, and then take a call whether to offload them again based on the figure they produce first time up.

In the end I decided to follow my own advice and I backed American Mike. There's not too much to lose doing so I think. It feels better to have the price tucked away rather than potentially chase him later with roll-ups.
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We are getting deep analysis going on with Fat Jockey, any edge will be eroded if its open to all comers.

The members section is better, but still open.

Maybe if anyone wants to do a lot of work to share then opening a thread for it in the Diary Section maybe the current best way forward.

Call it "Cheltenham Race Trends" or something like that and on Post 1 have links to all individual race pages, for easy access for everyone, as I've done with the Elliott and Mullins Diaries.

The Diary Section is a Members section it doesn't just have to be our Personal Betting Diaries.

It could be used for any serious analysis too, that helps us.
 
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That analysis is class..it helps massively cheers! Having backed american mike im keen to see what he runs to now and if ill have to look elsewhere or not id put quite strong faith in that stat personally
 
Saxon Warrior said:
We are getting deep analysis going on with Fat Jockey, any edge will be eroded if its open to all comers.

The members section is better, but still open.

Maybe if anyone wants to do a lot of work to share then opening a thread for it in the Diary Section maybe the current best way forward.

Call it "Cheltenham Race Trends" or something like that and on Post 1 have links to all individual race pages, for easy access for everyone, as I've done with the Elliott and Mullins Diaries.

The Diary Section is a Members section it doesn't just have to be our Personal Betting Diaries.

It could be used for any serious analysis too, that helps us.
Click to expand...

Why don't we do it now?

Can moderators move stuff around or suggest to posters that they cut and paste and move it somewhere in the members section if that's possible.
 
Patrick Mullins’s dark horse for the season is an unnamed Walking In The Park gelding out of Quevega. He is 4 currently and be 5 at the festival, and would suspect he will stick to bumpers this season.

His quote is ‘4 times the size of Quevega’ and ‘catches the eye every morning on the gallops’. Also says he is very much looking forward to getting on him.

Willies Bumper horse has been found!!
 
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Also sounded like classic getaway going hurdling is a done deal. No mention of Grangeclare west.
 
His quote is ‘4 times the size of Quevega’ and ‘catches the eye every morning on the gallops’. Also says he is very much looking forward to getting on him.


Must be some size of a horse​​​​
 
Winging The Last said:
Patrick Mullins’s dark horse for the season is an unnamed Walking In The Park gelding out of Quevega. He is 4 currently and be 5 at the festival, and would suspect he will stick to bumpers this season.

His quote is ‘4 times the size of Quevega’ and ‘catches the eye every morning on the gallops’. Also says he is very much looking forward to getting on him.

Willies Bumper horse has been found!!
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They said the same about Cool Jet last year though.
 
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