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2022 Champion Bumper

1 of the Mullins pair could easily remain in bumpers I agree. Wouldn’t be backing now if I hadn’t already and certainly not at current prices but not ripping my champion bumper slips up for either of them until I see them come out and jump a hurdle
 
American Mike to start off at down royal and remain in bumpers this season
 
ToniC said:
American Mike to start off at down royal and remain in bumpers this season
Click to expand...

Delete this post :glee::biggrin-new:

Get it in the race planning etc or he’ll be fav in no time.
 
ToniC said:
American Mike to start off at down royal and remain in bumpers this season
Click to expand...

”He’s a nice horse. We’d like to start him off in a bumper at Down Royal at the end of the month as long as the ground has a good ease in it. We’ll stick to bumpers with him this season.“

also says of Au Fleuron - “He won a point-to-point bumper at Tipperary in great style for Denis Murphy. We’ll send him novice hurdling this season and will look to start him off in the next month or so, possibly over two-and-a-half miles. He’s a nice horse, though we haven’t pushed any big buttons with him yet.”
 
All aboard the American Mike train :eagerness:
 
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I got 33/1 with willy hill
 
Ray said:
I got 33/1 with willy hill
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Yep, sorry, should have said with B365 cashout. Also a reminder to myself re: oddscheckers unreliability, not currently showing WH as offering anything for American Mike in the bumper when in fact as Ray points out, they go 33's!
 
I’ll be contrarian and won’t be backing either of American Mike, Classic Getaway and Grangeclare West. The latter two I think will be over hurdles anyway.
 
As I've said in my tracker thread, American Mike is one I've been waiting for some news on. Again from that thread I said I felt it could be a champion bumper bet for me and the soundbites from today have convinced me. I wish I pulled the trigger earlier but he's still a good price.
 
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Zachx02 said:
All aboard the American Mike train :eagerness:
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Thinks i was still wearing nappies (its seems that long ago :highly_amused:) when starting to wave the American Mike flag. Would be great if i puts you all on a goodun.
 
I'm not sure what to think about American Mike. He's very highly rated from the point field, so I've watched his race and he won showing a bit of pace. I'm not sure he beat anything at all, but he was visually impressive. His breeding though suggests proper stayer which doesn't make him an obvious Champion Bumper type.

For those of us that make books he's hard to back. 16/1 isn't great for a horse that's not even made its debut under rules, but admittedly would look good later if I'm completely wrong and he's the second coming. If he was 40/1 it like Sir Gerhard was at this stage last season it would be an easier decision, but even then I didn't back SG and wasted a few points later trying to get a roll-over price, and then still only got him at 20/1.

The problem is he'll probably go and win a soft bumper somewhere and 16's will become 6's, and we'll still have no idea how good he is, or where he'll be in the pecking order. I'm generally pretty decisive with my betting, but this race troubles me every season. I tend to end up with the winner and make a profit each season, but it always feels a little bit chaotic and perhaps I stumble my way there rather than feel it's under control.

This is what I wrote in my diary about the race:

Key Stats:
Horses from Leopardstown DRF, Fairyhouse, and Newbury bumpers have dominated
5 and 6 year old win this. Cue Card last 4 year old in 2010. Trend likely to continue but perhaps consider French breds
Discount anything beaten last time
Will have won in a field of 11 or more at some stage in the season
14 of the last 15 had never finished worse than 2nd. If not all 1's and 2's against their name, the other run should have been before June the previous year
Mares overperform their numbers. 2 from the last 5 winners, plus places. 7lb allowance is useful as we've seen in other races
Ratings have generally been a decent guide. If not rated highly already (high 120's and unexposed or already in the 130's), has probably only had one run
Mullins (3 from 5, and 11 from 24) and Elliott (2 from 5) are dominating
Only 2 from 10 UK winners but both were already RPR rated in the 130's. Newbury Bumper is the one to watch, but consider the two early season Cheltenham bumpers
Skelton is starting to have some impact with both Third Time Luckki and Elle Est Belle running big races in the last two seasons

Plan:
Not a big betting race for me usually, but the aim is to get the right Mullins and Elliott horses onside antepost. Consider De Bromhead this season too. Look at the best of the mares, and perhaps add a UK horse perhpas with Skelton if something stands out and hits 130 or is a 123+ UK mare. Use the ratings as a good guide, and don't be afraid to add one or two in the immediate lead up. I've reviewed my last 10 seasons and all have been profitable with the winner being in my book for each of them, so I may increase stakes this season. Relegate and Briar Hill were only the real shock horses at 25/1, but both were Mullins horses so were easy to back. I think this has become a race that shows that the best prepared horses win at the Festival, and Mullins and Elliott have become masters at peaking their horses on a single day. Plus their buying power makes it highly likely that the best bumper horses reside in their stables.

Reading my own thoughts back above I really should leave him alone for the time being and adjust my stakes accordingly when horses come out and show their colours. But it's definitely a race to potentially nick and advantage in if you're on the right one early like many were with Sir Gerhard last season, and blatantly you want the right Elliott and Mullins horses onside because law of averages says it's the right thing to do. In the case of American Mike he's a very short 16/1, so I think for now I'll wait for entries and see where Elliott sends him. Creature of habit and all that. I want to see what he sent to the same race before, what type of horse it was (breeding, size, scope, etc), how it previously performed in points, and how it ultimately it turned out.

What's the thought process of others that either have either backed him at 16's, or have left him alone at least for the time being?
 
Spectre for me it was a no brainer to back him given the race he is being targeted at. The Down Royal is Elliotts and he’s sent 3 very highly rated individuals in the last 3 runnings and won all 3, Malone Road, Easywork and Sir Gerhard. That for me is a sign that he sends his best or what he says as potentially his bent bumper horse to the race.

I got on 20/1 soon as I read the stable tour, yes it’s not that great a price but in comparison to Classic Getaway and Grangeclare West (who I don’t think we’re much bigger than 20/1, correct me if I’m wrong) we know he’s staying in bumpers for the season.

The bookies are a joke and that is reflected in what you’ve highlighted Sir G to be last year to what American Mike was priced up this year.
 
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He is 33's with Hills as Ray popped up and said a few posts back. 36-1 if you have a boost.
 
Quevega said:
He is 33's with Hills as Ray popped up and said a few posts back. 36-1 if you have a boost.
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Thanks for flagging this last night - managed to get on at 33s - much appreciated.
 
Wouldn't touch anything in the Bumper without cashout, in October like you @Spectre

But I am not a book builder though, generally, so more picky about when to bet on a race like the Bumper.

16/1 with cashout isn't of big interest at the moment.

Gordon's a creature of habit, and the Down Royal race is easy for him to win, as Willie doesn't run his young horses there, there's rarely much competition.

If American Mike runs and wins there by a few lengths he will be cut in the betting to single figures.

Doesn't mean he will win (or not win), in March, it means he's maybe the first gelding we've seen of some merit for the race.

It does mean he will appear in my Irish Race Planning Diary if he runs/wins at Down Royal though.:onthego:
 
Spectre said:
I'm not sure what to think about American Mike. He's very highly rated from the point field, so I've watched his race and he won showing a bit of pace. I'm not sure he beat anything at all, but he was visually impressive. His breeding though suggests proper stayer which doesn't make him an obvious Champion Bumper type.

For those of us that make books he's hard to back. 16/1 isn't great for a horse that's not even made its debut under rules, but admittedly would look good later if I'm completely wrong and he's the second coming. If he was 40/1 it like Sir Gerhard was at this stage last season it would be an easier decision, but even then I didn't back SG and wasted a few points later trying to get a roll-over price, and then still only got him at 20/1.

The problem is he'll probably go and win a soft bumper somewhere and 16's will become 6's, and we'll still have no idea how good he is, or where he'll be in the pecking order. I'm generally pretty decisive with my betting, but this race troubles me every season. I tend to end up with the winner and make a profit each season, but it always feels a little bit chaotic and perhaps I stumble my way there rather than feel it's under control.

This is what I wrote in my diary about the race:

Key Stats:
Horses from Leopardstown DRF, Fairyhouse, and Newbury bumpers have dominated
5 and 6 year old win this. Cue Card last 4 year old in 2010. Trend likely to continue but perhaps consider French breds
Discount anything beaten last time
Will have won in a field of 11 or more at some stage in the season
14 of the last 15 had never finished worse than 2nd. If not all 1's and 2's against their name, the other run should have been before June the previous year
Mares overperform their numbers. 2 from the last 5 winners, plus places. 7lb allowance is useful as we've seen in other races
Ratings have generally been a decent guide. If not rated highly already (high 120's and unexposed or already in the 130's), has probably only had one run
Mullins (3 from 5, and 11 from 24) and Elliott (2 from 5) are dominating
Only 2 from 10 UK winners but both were already RPR rated in the 130's. Newbury Bumper is the one to watch, but consider the two early season Cheltenham bumpers
Skelton is starting to have some impact with both Third Time Luckki and Elle Est Belle running big races in the last two seasons

Plan:
Not a big betting race for me usually, but the aim is to get the right Mullins and Elliott horses onside antepost. Consider De Bromhead this season too. Look at the best of the mares, and perhaps add a UK horse perhpas with Skelton if something stands out and hits 130 or is a 123+ UK mare. Use the ratings as a good guide, and don't be afraid to add one or two in the immediate lead up. I've reviewed my last 10 seasons and all have been profitable with the winner being in my book for each of them, so I may increase stakes this season. Relegate and Briar Hill were only the real shock horses at 25/1, but both were Mullins horses so were easy to back. I think this has become a race that shows that the best prepared horses win at the Festival, and Mullins and Elliott have become masters at peaking their horses on a single day. Plus their buying power makes it highly likely that the best bumper horses reside in their stables.

Reading my own thoughts back above I really should leave him alone for the time being and adjust my stakes accordingly when horses come out and show their colours. But it's definitely a race to potentially nick and advantage in if you're on the right one early like many were with Sir Gerhard last season, and blatantly you want the right Elliott and Mullins horses onside because law of averages says it's the right thing to do. In the case of American Mike he's a very short 16/1, so I think for now I'll wait for entries and see where Elliott sends him. Creature of habit and all that. I want to see what he sent to the same race before, what type of horse it was (breeding, size, scope, etc), how it previously performed in points, and how it ultimately it turned out.

What's the thought process of others that either have either backed him at 16's, or have left him alone at least for the time being?
Click to expand...


Hi Spectre: Having just watched a replay of American Mike's ptp I certainly won't be chasing him at this stage.

Unlike you, I wasn't overly impressed with him visually.

I was more taken with another horse Gordon picked up at the same sale - Ash Tree Meadow who cost 135k. Even so, he doesn't strike me as another Sir Gerhard at this stage.

https://www.tattersallscheltenham.co.../Main/Overview

But I think your own stats highlight the key to finding the winner. You need something that produces an rpr in the high 120s or preferably 130+ on its bumper debut.

I just did a quick exercise on all the horses who competed in Sir Gerhard's bumper. Anyone who based their selection on the horse's bumper debut rpr would have found the first four finishers.

I found that very startling. Is it really that easy to find the bumper winner?

Here are the stats:

1. Sir Gerhard 131
2. Kilcruit 123
3 Elle Est Belle 120
4. Three Stripe Life 127
5. 100
6 110
7 118
8 113
9 114
10 110
11 110
12 100
13 105
14 102

Surprised by the accuracy of this stat I looked back at 2019 to find out if this was an aberration or has the makings of a significant trend.

The bumper debut form-line worked out pretty well then too. The first three home at Cheltenham were among the top 5 for bumper debut rprs - but punters would have got stung following Eskylane and Admirel.

In Ferny's year there were a couple of well fancied Pipe horses who couldn't overcome their modest debut marks and finished out with the washing at the Festival.

So maybe that's another pointer from this stat - don't follow well backed bumper horses who failed to post a good mark on their debut.

I know it would be necessary to go back a lot further to get a sample size that had more meaning but to my mind it's not a bad rough guide.

Any potential bumper superstar must get close to 130 rpr on debut.

Here's last year's stats:


1. Ferny Hollow 128 (debut rpr) sp 11-1
2. Appreciate It 129 15-8fav
3. Queens Brook 123. 6-1
4 110
5 Eskylane 131. 16-1
6 115
7 117
8 118
9 116
10 116
11 104
12 122
13 107
14 101
15 107
16 128 (Admirel 25-1)
17 98 (Israel Champ 8-1 3rd favourite)
18 118 (Panic Attack 10-1 4th fav)
19 100
20 102
21 112

So as someone who makes a book I'd have thought it's worth jumping on anything that posts a bumper debut rpr of 123 or over. The list probably wont be very long. Only 3 who went to post this year and 5 last year.

I suppose with cash out it might be possible to get on board before the debut of any likely candidates and jump ship at little or no cost if they fail to hit the 120s.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
Hi Spectre: Having just watched a replay of American Mike's ptp Icertainly won't be chasing him at this stage.

Unlike you, I wasn't overly impressed with him visually.

I was more taken with another horse Gordon picked up at the same sale - Ash Tree Meadow who cost 135k. Even so, he doesn't strike me as another Sir Gerhard at this stage.

https://www.tattersallscheltenham.co.../Main/Overview

But I think your own stats highlight the key to finding the winner. You need something that produces an rpr in the high 120s or preferably 130+ on its bumper debut.

I just did a quick exercise on all the horses who competed in Sir Gerhard's bumper. Anyone who based their selection on the horse's bumper debut rpr would have found the first four finishers.

I found that very startling. Is it really that easy to find the bumper winner?

Here are the stats:

1. Sir Gerhard 131
2. Kilcruit 123
3 Elle Est Belle 120
4. Three Stripe Life 127
5. 100
6 110
7 118
8 113
9 114
10 110
11 110
12 100
13 105
14 102

Surprised by the accuracy of this stat I looked back at 2019 to find out if this was an aberration or has the makings of a significant trend.

The bumper debut form-line worked out pretty well then too. The first three home at Cheltenham were among the top 5 for bumper debut rprs - but punters would have got stung following Eskylane and Admirel.

In Ferny's year there were a couple of well fancied Pipe horses who couldn't overcome their modest debut marks and finished out with the washing at the Festival.

So maybe that's another pointer from this stat - don't follow well backed bumper horses who failed to post a good mark on their debut.

I know it would be necessary to go back a lot further to get a sample size that had more meaning but to my mind it's not a bad rough guide.

Any potential bumper superstar must get close to 130 rpr on debut.

Here's last year's stats:


1. Ferny Hollow 128 (debut rpr) sp 11-1
2. Appreciate It 129 15-8fav
3. Queens Brook 123. 6-1
4 110
5 Eskylane 131. 16-1
6 115
7 117
8 118
9 116
10 116
11 104
12 122
13 107
14 101
15 107
16 128 (Admirel 25-1)
17 98 (Israel Champ 8-1 3rd favourite)
18 118 (Panic Attack 10-1 4th fav)
19 100
20 102
21 112

So as someone who makes a book I'd have thought it's worth jumping on anything that posts a bumper debut rpr of 123 or over. The list probably wont be very long. Only 3 who went to post this year and 5 last year.

I suppose with cash out it might be possible to get on board before the debut of any likely candidates and jump ship at little or no cost if they fail to hit the 120s.
Click to expand...

I also touched on this in my trainer trends thread in the diary section. Been a fairly reliable stat to be fair though like any you will get outliers all the same.
 
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